Yesterday was just one of those days. A bunch of sharps and I were aligned on plays that seemed like great value– the Reds by margin and the Sox/Rays over 9 in particular, only to be let down by the Reds and Red Sox offenses. That’s just how the ball bounces sometimes and it’s one reason why I’m looking forward to football! Here’s today’s free play (if you’re interested in a premium package with many more daily plays, click here):
Padres/Diamondbacks under 8 (EVEN), 2 units: To say the Padres have been ice cold recently would be quite the understatement. No doubt San Diego is the better and more loaded team entering Tuesday– and they’re still right in the thick of the NL playoff race— but they’ve been AWFUL on offense. Averaging only 3.5 runs in their last 10 games and ranked dead last over the last 14 days in a slew of different hitting categories, including batting average, wOBA, and slugging percentage, the Padres are certainly due for positive regression. I just don’t think this is the spot (perhaps the spot was last night). Arizona, for all their disappointments this year, has played better at home and Zac Gallen (4.32 ERA, 1.31 WHIP over 85.1 innings) is far from their worst starter. Gallen maintains xERA and xFIP numbers below 4.00 and has looked more confident and commanding in his last few starts. Blake Snell (4.58 ERA, 1.45 WHIP over 114 innings) hasn’t had the year he wanted but his numbers aren’t entirely subpar. He’s holding batters to a 74.9% LOB rate, his xFIP is 3.85, and the month of August has treated him well- Snell boasts a 2.12 ERA through this past month and in 5 starts, he allowed more than 2 runs just once. Against a mediocre Arizona lineup, I’m confident he can have a strong showing. The Diamondbacks have won 6 of their last 8 games at home and 5 out of those 8 games were 8 runs or less. The under is 6-2 in Padres last 8 games as a favorite. I’ll take the under for 2 units.
