Back in Week 7, I posted two NFL market reports for those who like to follow the markets. First post was with the Wednesday market numbers, and the second with the Saturday night numbers. What do you know, bettors who had their bets in by Wednesday were much more successful.
I could post the charts, but you get the drift. If you don’t follow the market early, I don’t know if it’s worth following. However, markets often times are waiting for injury reports, or this week, the trade deadline!!! Anyways, Week 7 Wednesday showed the majority of tickets (public) on the spread went 8-5. And where there was more money on a side (sharp), that went 8-5 also.
If one waited until Saturday and looked at the market, the majority of tickets ended up going 6-6 and the majority of money went 4-8 on the spread, with heavy public money in by the weekend. So, maybe the sweet spot is Wednesday- Thursday… It’s a good question and something I look at. Regardless, here’s the Tuesday morning NFL market summary! Perhaps you like to get ahead of further moves, or you want to wait it out to hit the other side… This is where the tickets are, where the money is, and the difference between the two. Check it out! For the spreads…
| TEAM | TIX % | MONEY % | $ Diff. % |
| CIN | 71% | 54% | -17% |
| ARI | 74% | 65% | -9% |
| LVR | 88% | 87% | -1% |
| BUF | 97% | 99% | 2% |
| BAL | 66% | 70% | 4% |
| NE | 91% | 96% | 5% |
| LAR | 85% | 91% | 6% |
| HOU | 65% | 73% | 8% |
| LAC | 85% | 96% | 11% |
| GB | 77% | 94% | 17% |
| DAL | 75% | 93% | 18% |
| NYJ | 54% | 73% | 19% |
| PIT | 76% | 96% | 20% |
| ATL | 54% | 77% | 23% |
The totals… (where percentages weren’t available I charted the line moves)
| GAME | TIX % | MONEY % | $ Diff. |
| NE/CAR | u100% | u100% | 0% |
| KC/GB | o100% | o100% | 0% |
| CLE/CIN | o76% | o77% | 1% |
| ATL/NOR | u93% | u95% | 2% |
| LAC/PHI | u82% | u93% | 11% |
| HOU/MIA | u67% | o54% | 21% |
| TEN/LAR | o50% | u76% | 26% |
| NYJ/IND | u60% | o97% | 57% |
| Line Move | Open | Consensus | |
| DEN/DAL | 49 | 49.5 | |
| BUF/JAX | 49.5 | 48.5 | |
| ARI/SF | 47 | 46.5 | |
| CHI/PIT | 40 | 40.5 | |
| LVR/NYG | 47.5 | 47.5 | |
| MIN/BAL | 49.5 | 49.5 |
I noticed a money difference with the ARI game. After some digging… Since Kyler Murray has been with the Cardinals, after a home favorite loss ARI is 0-4 ATS. On the road after a home favorite loss, they are 0-2 ATS. Add to that, division revenge for a SF team that’s desperate for wins to stay alive in the NFC West. I’m taking an early position on the home team SF +2.5 and a smaller play on SF ML +122. Can always hedge with any news or change of heart!
