We were so close to getting back to back winners as Patrick Reed finished T2 in the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. Reed made a late push Sunday finishing with a 65 and just one shot back of the winner Lucas Herbert. The PGA Tour continues it’s international stretch as we had to Mexico for the Worldwide Technology Championship at Mayakoba.
With just two events left in the PGA Tour 2021 season we have some big names entering this field looking to grab some FedEx Cup points. The field is headlined by Justin Thomas and Brooks Koepka who return to action since the CJ Cup. Viktor Hovland will look to defend his title here as he won the Mayakoba Golf Classic last year with a -20. Patrick Reed is also in the field and looks to have returned to form given his performance last week. Carlos Ortiz and Abraham Ancer are natives of Mexico and will play in front of a home crowd. We saw how much the home crowd matter earlier this year when Hideki Matsuyama won the Zozo Championship in Japan. This should be a great tournament this week with one of the best fields this tournament has ever seen.
Tournament Information:
- Dates: November 4th, 2021- November 7th, 2021
- Location: Playa Carmen, Mexico
- Course: El Camaleon GC at the Mayakoba Resort
- Par: 71 (4x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
- Length: 7,017 yards
- Format: 72 hole stroke play
- Field/ Cut: 132 Players | Top 65 and ties after 36 Holes
- Greens: Sea Isle 1 Paspalum
- Fairways: Sea Isle 1 Paspalum
- Rough: Sea Isle 1 Paspalum 2″
- Stimpmeter: 11 feet
- Purse: $7,200,000 / Winner $1.296 Million
- FedEx Cup Points: 500
- Bunkers: A lot
- Water Hazards: A lot (canals run through course, holes border ocean)
- Average Green Size: 7,000 sq. ft. (Large)
- Scoring Average:
- 2020: 69.77 (-1.23)
- 2019: 70.09 (-0.91)
Course History:
In 2007, El Camaleon became the home of the Mayakoba Golf Classic, the first PGA Tour event to ever be held outside the US and Canada. The first six editions of this event were played in February however, in 2013, the event moved to November where it has remained. World Wide Technology will sponsor this event for the first time and retain rights until 2027. Even with WWT taking over the event, the 7.2 million dollar purse will remain unchanged. This event offers a full 500 FedEx Cup points and a Master’s invitation. Another interesting aspect of the tournament is that four additional sponsor exemptions are designated for players of Spanish or Mexican heritage from Latin America, South America, Spain, or Mexico.
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
El Camaleon is another coastal course that is relatively short but, will punish players off the tee they miss the fairway. The course is lined with thick woods throughout the course so ball striking off the tee will placed at a premium this week. Hence, why driving accuracy has been such a key statistic of success on this course. In addition to the woods/ jungle surrounding most holes, the course also features a lot of water. The water hazards do not necessarily come into play every hole but, a miss right or left can mean trouble. Most holes also have bunkers surrounding the greens which again will mean approach shots need to be on. The wind we saw last week in Bermuda won’t be as bad but, it will need to be considered on holes that border the ocean. Given the previous winners scores, players will need to take advantage of every birdie opportunity. The three Par 5’s on the course are relatively long so going for them in two might not be an option for every player. The four Par 3’s all play 200 yards or less which should present some birdie looks. Overall this a short course that requires great tee shots to set up players with solid looks at the pin on their approach shots.
Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:
- Course Architect: Greg Norman (2006)
- Comparable Courses:
- Sedgefield CC
- TPC Sawgrass
- TPC River Highlands
- Round 1: Thursday, November 4th, 2021
- Golf Channel* – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
- Round 2: Friday, November 5th, 2021
- Golf Channel* – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
- Round 3: Saturday, November 6th, 2021
- Golf Channel* – 2:00 PM – 5:00 PM ET
- Round 4: Sunday, November 7th, 2021
- Golf Channel* – 2:00 PM – 5:00 PM ET
- Thursday: PM Thunderstorms 77 F, 6 mp/h NE, 73% Humidity, 40% Chance of Rain
- Friday: PM Thunderstorms 79 F, 6 mp/h NW, 70% Humidity, 40% Chance of Rain
- Saturday: Mostly Sunny 78 F, 11 mp/h NNW, 66% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
- Sunday: Mostly Sunny 78 F, 10 mp/h N, 64% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
Key Statistics:
- Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
- Driving Accuracy Percentage
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Stokes Gained: Putting (Paspalum)
- Strokes Gained: Total (Moderate Winds)
- Greens in Regulation Percentage
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
- 2020: Viktor Hovland (-20)
- Price: 22-1
- 2019: Brendon Todd (-20)
- Price: 120-1
- 2018: Matt Kuchar (-22)
- Price: 60-1
- 2017: Patton Kizzire (-19)
- Price: 70-1
- 2016: Pat Perez (-21)
- Price: 125-1
Picks (Outright):
Before I get into picks, just an interesting stat. The past five winners dating back to 2016 have either missed the cut in the year prior or it was their first start in the tournament.
If you’re looking to shop around for the best odds this week, check out the following link.
- Aaron Wise (+3500) – Caesars
- Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Units
If you have not been following golf, Aaron Wise has been one of the players to watch. He enters this tournament in great form. He finished T26 at the Sanderson Farms Championship, T8 in the Shriner’s, and T5 at the CJ Cup. Additionally he finished 2nd here so he’s comfortable with the course and putting surface. Wise also performs well in all of the key categories this week. He’s 8th in SG: Tee to Green, 9th in SG: Around the Green and 7th in Greens in Regulation %. To top it all off he’s 9th in Birdie Average and 45th in Driving Accuracy %. Given his form and course history, I like him to capture his first win on Tour since 2018.
- Russell Henley (+4200) – FanDuel
- Risk 0.20 to win 8.40 Units
Russel Henley fits the mold for this course and previous winners a little too well. He’s currently 1st on Tour in Driving Accuracy %, Greens in Regulation %, SG: Approach the Green, and 4th in SG: Tee to Green. On top of that he’s 9th in Birdie Average which is another key factor this week. He finished T21 in the Shriners and T25 in the CJ Cup at Summit. Another weird aspect is Henley hit fits the mold of previous winners who have missed the cut in this event prior to winning. Like I mentioned before, he seems like the guy to win this thing given his performance this year.
- Matthew Wolff (+4500) – Pointsbet
- Risk 0.18 to win 8.10 Units
We saw his college teammate Viktor Hovland win this tournament, so who’s to say he can’t do it this year? His major downfall could be his Driving Accuracy % where he ranks 238th on Tour. Overlooking that, he does have some impressive stats this year. He’s 1st on Tour in Driving Distance, 14th in SG: Tee to Green, and 29th in SG: Approach the Green. Additionally he’s 18th in Greens in Regulation % and 9th in Birdie Average. If Wolff can figure out his accuracy off the tee he could win this tournament. He’s been in great form this year finishing 2nd at the Shriner’s and T17 at the Sanderson Farms Championship.
- Rickie Fowler (+5000) – Pointsbet
- Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units
This should be interesting… Rickie seems to be in better form as of late given his previous finishes. He finished T44 at the Zozo Championship and T3 at the CJ Cup. Fowler currently ranks 15th on Tour in SG: Tee to Green and 38th in SG: Around the Green. He’s 10th in Driving Distance and 67th in Driving Accuracy %. If his driver is on this week, he should have a shot to win this tournament. In 2020 he missed the cut in the Mayakoba but, finished 2nd in 2017 and 16th in 2018. At 50-1 I think he’s worth a shot here.
- Carlos Ortiz (+8000) – BetMGM
- Risk 0.10 to win 8.00 Units
Carlos Ortiz is a native to Mexico so he’ll be playing in front of friends and family this week. My only concern for him is that he did withdraw from the Zozo Championship due to a shoulder injury. However, if he’s entered this event, he clearly feels like he’s capable of playing. Prior to the Zozo he seemed to be in good form finishing T25 in the CJ Cup and T47 in the Shriner’s. He’s currently 23rd in SG: Approach the Green and 65th in SG: Tee to Green. His approach game has been good this year as he ranks 14th in Greens in Regulation %. Ortiz ranks 74th on Tour for Driving Accuracy % but, will need to improve his putting if he wants to contend. In 2020 he finished 8th in this event and in 2019 he finished second.
- Adam Long (+15000) – BetMGM
- Risk 0.06 to win 9.00 Units
If we want to talk about a guy who loves this event, its Adam Long. In 2020 he finished 3rd and in 2019 he finished 2nd. While he is very inconsistent, he has been great putting this year ranking 8th in SG: Putting. At 150-1 and given his recent finishes in this tournament, he’s worth a shot.
Total Risk on Outrights: 0.93 Units
Picks (Top 10):
- Justin Thomas (+105) – FanDuel
- Risk 1.00 to win 1.05 Units
- Adam Long (+900) – FanDuel
- Risk 0.12 to win 1.08 Units
Total Risk on Top 10: 1.12 Units
Total Risk on WWT Championship : 2.05 Units
For these early tournaments, I wont have to many plays and will try to keep the unit stake small. It’s a long season so you don’t want to risk your whole bankroll early.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
