At this point, I kind of feel bad for Russell Henley. However, the narrative of him being a choke artist continues as he led the tournament the whole way and yet found a way to lose. Hideki Matsuyama was great on Sunday and was able to match Henley for the lead forcing a playoff. Matsuyama then hit an unbelievable second shot from 277 yards to capture the win at the Sony Open.
Our guy Kevin Kisner finished T3 and would have had a shot if it wasn’t for the first round. He shot a 68 on Thursday only going 2 under which put him out of contention especially given the birdie-fest that did ensue. He started the final round birdieing his first three holes and gave us a brief glimpse of hope before cooling off on the back nine.
We now head to Southern California for the American Express which is a very unique event. The field for this event isn’t as strong as last weeks Sony Open but we still do have some big names headlining the event. While the length is similar, it won’t put as much emphasis on driving accuracy and will put more on putting. One key component that will remain the same will be the ability to score, as this week as Birdie to Bogey ratio remains a key factor.
I breakdown the tournament format, field, and my picks below so lets get into it.
General Tournament Information:
- Dates: January 20th, 2022- January 23rd, 2022
- Location: La Quinta, California, United States
- Format: 72 hole stroke play
- Thursday-Saturday: 3 Course Rotation (PGA West Stadium Course, Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta CC)
- Sunday: PGA West Stadium Course
- Field/ Cut: 156 Pros & 156 Amateurs | Top 65 and Ties
- Purse: $7,600,000 / Winner $1.368 Million
- FedEx Cup Points: 500
PGA West Stadium Course (2 Rounds)
- Course: PGA West Stadium Course
- Course Architect: Pete Dye (1986)
- Comparable Courses: TPC Sawgrass, Torrey Pines North, TPC Scottsdale
- Course Type: Desert/ Parkland
- Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
- Length: 7,158 yards
- Greens: Poa trivialis (overseeded)
- Fairways: Ryegrass (overseeded)
- Rough: Ryegrass 2″ (overseeded)
- Stimpmeter: 11.5 feet
- Bunkers: 90
- Water Hazards: — (In-Play on 7 Holes)
- Average Green Size: 5,000 sq. ft.
Nicklaus Tournament Course (1 Round)
- Course: Nicklaus Tournament Course
- Course Architect: Jack Nicklaus (1987)
- Comparable Courses: La Quinta, TPC Summerlin, TPC Scottsdale
- Course Type: Desert/ Parkland
- Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
- Length: 7,147 yards
- Greens: Poa trivialis (overseeded)
- Fairways: Ryegrass (overseeded)
- Rough: Ryegrass 2″ (overseeded)
- Stimpmeter: 10.5 feet
- Bunkers: 78
- Water Hazards: — (In-Play on 6 Holes)
- Average Green Size: 7,700 sq. ft.
La Quinta CC (1 Round)
- Course: La Quinta CC
- Course Architect: Frank Hughes/ Lawrence Hughes (1959)
- Comparable Courses: Nicklaus Tournament Course, TPC Summerlin, Sherwood CC
- Course Type: Desert/ Parkland
- Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
- Length: 7,060 yards
- Greens: Poa trivialis (overseeded)
- Fairways: Ryegrass (overseeded)
- Rough: Ryegrass 2″ (overseeded)
- Stimpmeter: 11 feet
- Bunkers: 78
- Water Hazards: — (In-Play on 7 Holes)
- Average Green Size: 4,000 sq. ft.
Course/ Tournament Overview:
This is a unique tournament for several reasons but let’s start with the obvious, the 3 course rotation. The players will play a different course for the first three days and will rotate between the PGA West Stadium Course, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and the La Quinta Country Club Course. The PGA West facility will host three of the four rounds as the Stadium Course and Nicklaus Tournament Course are both on the grounds. La Quinta Country Club is roughly a 5 mile drive from that facility and will be the only travel required for players during this event.
Given that the first three days are at different courses, the first and lone cut for the event will be made after 54 Holes and not the typical 36 Holes. Last year, the event only took place at just two courses, so the cut was made after 36 which has shewed some cut line data. The historical cut line for this event has been around -9 after 54 Holes.
Another interesting variation is the incorporation of the Pro-Am structure. This will be the first event “post” Covid that we will have seen this. For the first three rounds, each pro will be paired up with an amateur. So in the groupings for the first three days will feature two pros and two amateurs.
Course Guides/ Scorecard:
As previously mentioned, this is a unique format with three courses coming into play. Another added difficulty this week is that we only have Strokes Gained data for one of the courses, the PGA West Stadium course. That’s the only course that we’ll see twice so it’ll be the main point of emphasis this week but should be taken with a gain of salt.
Lets start with the Nicklaus Tournament Course, it’s a Par 72 that’s roughly 7,147 yards in length. As seen by the yardage, it is one of the shortest courses on Tour ranking 49th out of 54. It’s also one of the easiest courses on the Tour ranking 49/54.
La Quinta is arguably, if you can even say that given the ranking, the easiest course on Tour ranking 54/54. It’s a Par 72 that’s 7,060 yards which is extremely short. If any player wants to have a chance this week, they’ll need to take advantage of all the birdie opportunities this course offers. If you’re looking at placing a FRL bet, I would highly advise you take a look and make sure that they’re starting on this course. To see the updated tee times, you can click this link.
Lastly, lets look at the PGA West Stadium course which is the host course for the week. It’s a Par 72 that’s roughly 7,158 yards in length. This is the most difficult course that these players will face ranking 40th out of 54 courses. In addition to difficulty, PGA West is also the longest course of the three.
The the three possible course rotations will be as follows:
- R1: PGA West Stadium -> R2: La Quinta -> R3: Nicklaus Tournament
- R1: La Quinta -> R2: Nicklaus Tournament -> R3: PGA West Stadium
- R1: Nicklaus Tournament -> R2: PGA West Stadium -> R3: La Quinta
The Field/ Odds:
The field for this weeks event is headlined by world No. 1 Jon Rahm who currently sits at 6-1 (+600) to win this event. Rahm has played in this event three times prior and won the American Express back in 2018.
Behind Rahm in terms of odds, sits Patrick Cantlay who won the Fed Ex Cup last season. He’s listed at 9-1 (+900) on most books and has actually done very well at this event in the past. Last season he shot a course record 61 on the final day but fell short to Si Woo Kim and placed 2nd. He didn’t play here in 2020 but finished 9th in 2019.
Si Woo Kim who, as previously mentioned, won this event last year is currently listed at 50-1 (+5000).
Other “horses for the course” this week will most likely be Adam Hadwin, Sungjae Im, Abraham Ancer, and Michael Thompson.
Adam Hadwin is currently listed at 80-1 (+8000). He has played in this event six times and has finished 48-6-2-3-2-32. Hadwin hasn’t played since the RSM Classic back in November but his event history will be hard to ignore. He did play well during the fall swing only missing one cut in seven events. However, he only cracked the Top 40 once finishing T6 at the Shriners.
Sungjae Im is currently listed at 22-1 (+2200). He’ll undoubtedly a popular play this week given his event history. He’s played in this event three times and has finished 12-10-12. So far this season he has played great with the only outlier coming last week in the Sony Open where he missed the cut. During the fall swing he won the Shriner’s Children Open and finished Top 10 at the CJ Cup @ Summit and the Sentry Tournament of Champions. It’ll be interesting to see how he rebounds this week.
Abraham Ancer is currently listed at 25-1 (+2500). He has finished 2-5 in his last two starts at the American Express. Ancer is coming off a MC at the Sony but has been playing well besides that. His best finish of the fall swing comes at the WWT at Mayakoba where he finished T7.
Michael Thompson is currently listed at 80-1 (+8000). He has played in this event six times before and has found his form at this event as of late. In 2019 he finished 9th and in 2021 he finished 5th. He’s a dark horse for sure here but is coming off a 5th place finish in the Sony Open and looks to be in great form not missing a cut in any event this season.
Other former winners who are in the event include; Andrew Landry (150-1), Adam Long (160-1), Hudson Swafford (250-1), Jason Dufner (350-1), Bill Haas (750-1), Patrick Reed (40-1), Brian Gay (650-1), Mark Wilson (1000-1), Jhonattan Vegas (80-1), Pat Perez (250-1), and Phil Mickelson (125-1).
Notable Withdraws Include: Charley Hoffman (back), Martin Laird
Click the link, to see the most up to date odds.
Click the link, to find out how everyone in the field has qualified.
TV Information:
- Round 1: Thursday, January 20th, 2022
- Golf Channel – 3:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET
- Round 2: Friday, January 21st, 2022
- Golf Channel – 3:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET
- Round 3: Saturday, January 22nd, 2022
- Golf Channel – 3:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET
- Round 4: Sunday, January 23rd, 2022
- Golf Channel – 3:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET
- Thursday: Sunny 62 F, 9 mp/h NW, 21% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
- Friday: Sunny 63 F, 6 mp/h NNW, 21% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
- Saturday: Sunny 59 F, 12 mp/h NNW, 18% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
- Sunday: Sunny 74 F, 6 mp/h NNW, 16% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
Key Statistics:
- Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Greens in Regulation %
- Course History
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
- 2021: Si Woo Kim (-23)
- Price: 66-1
- 2020: Andrew Landry (-26)
- Price: 200-1
- 2019: Adam Long (-26)
- Price: 600-1
- 2018: Jon Rahm (-22)
- Price: 10-1
- 2017: Hudson Swafford (-20)
- Price: 66-1
Picks (Outright):
- Patrick Cantlay (+900) – DraftKings
- Risk: 0.90 to win 8.1 Units
Well any doubts of Cantlay’s form was certainly put to rest as he finished 4th in the Sentry Tournament of Champions two weeks ago shooting a final round 61. Cantlay is a flat out assassin when it comes to his irons. Having the amateurs in the field almost gives him even more of an advantage as the pin placement will be slightly easier on the first three days. He has a great track record here finishing 2nd in 2021 and 9th in 2020. Historically he also ranks near the top in terms of SG on Short Courses and SG on Western Courses. He already holds the course record for lowest round so he really only has one thing left to do which is to win.
- Matthew Wolff (+3100) – FanDuel
- Risk 0.26 to win 8.06 Units
Matthew Wolff enters the American Express in tremendous form. While he is coming off a bit of a layoff since his last tournament, I don’t expect much to chance from the Oklahoma State grad. During the fall swing he finished T11-T5-2-T17 with that 2nd place coming at the Shiners Children Open. The Shriners took place at TPC Summerlin which is a comparable course for this weeks event. Wolff has played in this event two times prior and is trending in the right direction finishing 61 in 2020 and 40 in 2021. He’s seen the course layout and should be more familiar this time around. In terms of statistics he ranks 1st on Tour in Scoring Average, 3rd in SG: Total, and 5th in SG: Putting.
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.16 Units
Picks (Top 20):
- Seamus Powers (+188) – Caesars
- Risk: 1.00 to win 1.88 Units
What a run it has been for Seamus Powers as of late. He’s finally broken into the Top 50 of the WGR and is coming off a T3 finish at the Sony Open. He’s been a Top 20 machine this year with the following results, T3-T15-T4-MC-T11-T12. Power’s hasn’t played in his event the past two years but finished 21 in 2017 and 11 in 2018. He’s currently 35th on Tour in Birdie or Better % and is Top 15 in Par 4 and Par 5 Scoring.
Total Risk on Top 20: 1.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
- KH Lee (+160) – Caesars
- Risk: 1.00 to win 1.60 Units
KH Lee has made the Top 40, in 5 of his last 6 events. His only week outside the Top 40 was last week at the Sony Open where he finished T48. In his last two outings at the American Express he finished 21-32. KH Lee has been in great form as of late and given his event history, he seems like a great play at + money to make the Top 40. Besides his recent form and event history, he ranks well in SG: Off the Tee and GIR % both of which are important this week.
- Andrew Putnam (+185) – Caesars
- Risk: 1.00 to win 1.85 Units
Andrew Putnam has finished inside the Top 40 in his last four appearances at the American Express (17-34-10-21). He’s coming off a 27th place finish at the Sony Open last week and has only missed the cut twice in his last eight tournaments. Besides those two MC, he has finished inside the Top 40 in 4 of those eight events, even finishing 41 in one of them. Putnam has played well at the event in the past and looks to be in good enough form to continue that trend.
Total Risk on Top 40: 2.00 Units
Total Risk on the American Express : 4.16 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
