Joe Burrow survived nine sacks and as time was running out, completed a key pass, enabling the Bengals to win with no time left. Patrick Mahomes one-upped him, escaping pressure numerous times and then completing two passes in nine seconds to enable KC to kick a game-tying field goal before winning the coin toss and beating Buffalo in overtime. On January 2nd, these teams played an epic game of their own. Saying no to conservatism, Zac Taylor and Cincy went for the win late when hosting KC, and after two penalty calls, got the late TD to win 34-31. This rematch is in KC.
Cincy analysis: It’s well documented that Cincy’s OL is the worst in the NFL at pass protection. They allowed 55 sacks in the regular season and another 11 in the postseason. KC, however is a below average sacking team, with less than two per game. What happened in the week 17 meeting? KC had a 4-0 sack edge. Burrow was the NFL’s most accurate QB. He was 30-39 vs KC, for 446 yards and a 4-0 TD to interception ratio. Joe Mixon ran 12-46, and caught seven passes. He has 31 playoff carries, but just for a 3.3 per carry average. WR Chase was 11-266 vs. KC and has gone 14-225 in the playoffs. After battling some injuries, Tee Higgins has regained his form, and is 8-106 in the playoffs. WR Boyd has been relegated to complimentary status but a typical stat line for him is 4-40. Emerging TE Uzomah has excelled in the playoffs, going 13-135. It’s these five players that consume most of the targets from Burrow. Cincy has modest defensive sack totals, and clearly won’t have an easy time getting to Mahomes. Of concern is their 41-243 playoff run defense, which was better during the regular season. KC ran well at 23-155 vs. Cincy, with Mahomes just 2-25. Cincy did a nice job stopping Carr (Vegas) and Tannehill (Tennessee) but this was not a good pass D during the season, and facing Mahomes (26-35, 259, 2-0 ratio in 1st meeting) won’t be easy. All four playoff kickers are near elite. Cincy’s rookie kicker is full of confidence.
KC analysis: KC’s only loss since the end of week eight was to Cincy. Like in 2021, many of their outcomes have been close, but this year has a different feel to it with Mahomes fully healthy and the offense making numerous adjustments in style. As I frequently documented, KC started an all-new OL game one. In their final ten regular season games they allowed just 14 sacks. That had more than modest correlation to their change in turnovers, which at one point in 2021 was -11. KC finished with a turnover ratio of +4. To beat KC, you have to outscore them. Buffalo has a much tougher pass D and also a tougher run D. Like it or not, Covid has affected NFL performances. Kelce missed 12/26 due to covid protocols. He returned to go just 5-25 vs. Cincy, and just 4-34 the following week at Denver. He served notice last week that he was back to 100%, and that’s not good news for the Bengals. Both Kelce and Hill are back at peak form, and as said above, KC has a shot at better run-pass balance vs. Cincy’s defense. Jerick McKinnon has added a new dimension to KC’s offense, and RB Helaire returned and was effective in limited action. WR’s Pringle, Hardman and perhaps Demarcus Robinson add depth. No team can cover all of these guys. KC’s defense is not as good as in recent years. The pass D% was higher than usual and has allowed 69.1% in two playoff games. The run D has often been below average and was especially vulnerable this year. In two playoff games they have improved to 44-165. If they hold Cincy down like they did on January 2nd (19-60), it could force Burrow to make at least one poor decision. Then again, Burrow hasn’t made many poor decisions of late. Hill and Pringle are potential game busters in the return game.
Some matchup analysis and game keys: I feel Cincy’s game plan needs to feature Joe Mixon more in this rematch. 12 carries will not be enough, as you have to keep Mahomes off the field. Their goal has to be 20-90. WR Chase gets the glory, but don’t sleep on Higgins. The job defensively is much tougher. Cincy likely has a ceiling of two defensive sacks, so do they spy on Mahomes and give him time in the pocket, or double the top two targets, giving Pringle and McKinnon free space? KC has guys who are capable of getting another four sacks on Burrow, with my (usual) concern being their undisciplined play, going offsides often, and roughing the QB. They do get a referee crew who doesn’t tend to call many penalties. My keys: Can Mixon run in excess of 90+ yards? Can Burrow remain turnover-free? Will KC’s defense be vulnerable enough to swing time of possession in Cincy’s favor? Will KC’s home field advantage and Cincy’s lack of playoff experience come into play, or, is it just that Cincy is riding the wave right now, blissfully unaware of what they are accomplishing?
Tuesday afternoon thoughts: No pick at this time, but I lean KC’s team total OVER, and perhaps the game over as well. Maybe the big stage catches up to Cincy, but the backdoor (cover) is always open thanks to Joe Burrow, coupled with KC’s mediocre defense. I’m assuming DB Mathieu plays. If he doesn’t, that’s one highly instinctive player missing from the back end. Ultimately, the game and the spread may be decided by Joe Mixon overachieving vs. KC’s below par run defense.
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