Thank God it’s Friday and thank God we’ll have consistent NBA playoff action for a long time now. The play-in finish should be entertaining tonight, and we’ve hit on 5 of our last 6 MLB picks!
Let’s keep rollin’ – premiums are below:
NBA Picks (Friday and Saturday):
- Hawks -2.5, to win 1.5 units
- I just can’t trust the Cavs and Atlanta’s playoff experience certainly showed itself last night in that big win. I expect the Cavs to offer more resistance (Charlotte’s defense was non-existent), but Atlanta’s bested this team 3 times and recently by margin. The bottom line here is that Atlanta just has more gifted shooters than Cleveland. Under pressure, that’s a big deal. You need confidence in these intense environments and it was obvious that Atlanta had plenty Wednesday night. I really liked the play of ATL’s bigs too, who played more aggressive and determined. It doesn’t matter if the Cavs front court has success, and it doesn’t matter if Jarrett Allen returns either. Not for me. Trae and a crisp perimeter offense should roll here. All Hawks for me.
- NO/LAC under 216, 2 units
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The Pelicans only had 95 possessions in that contest, happy to run the floor very slow and pick their shots judiciously. Since the All-Star break, LAC is one of the slowest paced teams in the association at only 97 possessions per game. More of LAC’s defensive advantages are below, but this tracks as a slow-paced, testy matchup where the Pelicans mid-range won’t come as easy and where the Pelicans range will challenge LAC’s shooters consistently. Love this under.
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- Parlay: Clippers ML + under 216.5, 1 unit to win 1.97 units
- Even in a loss, there was A LOT to like about the Clippers Tuesday night and this is a correlated parlay that makes sense. The Pelicans slowed down their play-in game tremendously, and no team will cover the Pelicans’ stars better than LAC. The talent of the Clippers’ wing defenders is exceptional, and for a team like New Orleans that doesn’t rely on 3 pointers (unlike Minnesota, which ultimately killed the Clippers), this is in LAC’s wheelhouse to dominate. The line is very sharp, so let’s capitalize on a home team, with more rest, who looked incredibly sharp Tuesday and probably should have won that game. It’s too early for the Pelicans to ascend.
- MIN/MEM 1Q over 60.5, 1 unit
- MIN/MEM 1H over 120, 1.5 units
- The full game total is pretty damn high, especially for a playoff game that’s bound to slow down at some point in the 2nd half, as most do, and that’s bound to have some high-pressure moments. These two young teams aren’t tested enough to trust in the final rounds, but it’s more probable to assume that both units will demonstrate the same explosive offense and pace we’ve seen all year in the first half of this contest. Ja Morant has already come out and said, in so many words, that they’re going to ram it down Minnesota’s throat. The front court infiltration will be constant for the Grizzlies, and we know Minnesota can murder teams from beyond the arc. I see a lot of points early – taking both overs.
- Raptors +4.5, 1 unit
- If this goes up, we may take it for more. Toronto has played Philly REALLY well this season, proving that they have the length and tenacity to limit Embiid and slow down Philly’s once-potent offense. The starting 5 for Toronto, which matters more in the postseason, is every bit as talented as the Sixers. Harden is as much a disruptor as he is a talent, and I don’t trust Harris, Thybulle, or Maxey in his reduced role (b/c of Harden) to consistently punch back at a tough, disciplined Raptors team. The hype isn’t fake – Toronto is well-coached, very annoying for opponents on defense, and they have plenty of scoring talent to stay in the game if their defense stumbles (which it rarely has since the all-star break). Don’t be surprised if Toronto takes game 1 and wins this series.
MLB Picks:
- Mets Alt Line -2.5, 1 unit to win 1.3 units
- Not overthinking this. Chris Bassitt looked sensational in his first mound appearance in a Mets cap, NYM’s bats are hot, they’re at home, and they’re facing probably the worst team in MLB (again), off a win. Night night, D-Backs.
- SF/CLE under 8, 1.1 units to win 1 unit
- The definition of fake news is Guardians’ games blowing up totals. Not gonna happen today. Rodon and Plesac lead these two squads into a matchup of ace pitchers and both of these lineups are due for some regression. Their bullpens are also well rested for a new series. I expect fewer hits and not a lot of points.
- CHC/COL first 5 under 5, 1 unit to win 1.05 units
- This number is inflated because it’s Coors Field and they whack homers a lot there blah blah we get it. But this isn’t about the bats; it’s about 2 starting pitchers who looked sensational in their openers. G. Marquez pitched 7 innings for a 0.43 WHIP and 1.29 ERA. M. Stroman went for 5 innings and held a 1.80 ERA against a talented Milwaukee lineup. A total of 5 feels 1-2 runs too high for these two studs.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
Always appreciate all of you! -Chris
