Well our over on the Sky and Liberty felt like it should hit – 96 points in the 1st half and then somehow, someway, it still dropped to a 162 point total. We were on the right side but not much you can do in a situation like that. That’s crazy variance.
Added more CFB plays, two NFL Preseason wagers (although we’re lowering our investment this week because of expected variance), and we’re sticking with our 2 picks in the WNBA. Let’s go!
MLB Leans (not official plays):
Braves/Pirates under 8.5 (-120)
Rangers/Rockies under 11 (-110)
White Sox/Orioles over 8.5 (-105)
Tampa Bay Rays make a great parlay leg with the Connecticut Sun
WNBA Playoffs (1-9, -10.70 units):
(Wednesday)
Sun -6 (-110), to win 2 units
Sun TT over 85.5 (-105), to win 1 unit
The Dallas Wings are a formidable outfit but their game two win felt very flukey. You won’t see the Sun shoot that poorly from beyond the arc very often (28%) but that was the difference in the game. The Wings shot nearly 42% from 3 point land and nearly 50% from the field. Expect the Sun to look like themselves again – love them to blow open this game early and I expect them to maintain a lead throughout.
NFL Preseason Week 3 (14-5, +11.05 units):
Panthers -6 (-110), to win 0.5 units
Inflated for a reason, the Panthers starters and specifically QBs need more reps. Bet them early too, if you can. Buffalo won’t give a shit about this game.
Seahawks -4.5 (-110), to win 0.5 units
Same situation as above.
CFB Picks (0-0):
(Week 0)
Northwestern +13 (-110), to win 1.5 units
My thesis on this game: this is a really stupid line. All we see, every year, is Scott Frost disappointing. I know they’re at home but big whoop, they’ve been terrible at home under Frost, and Northwestern returns a lot of starters with a ton of experience. Conversely, Nebraska lost plenty of talent. Gotta hit this line – makes no sense to me.
Wyoming/Illinois over 44 (-110), to win 1 unit
This is a great article by TheOddsBreakers own Michael Fordham and I agree with his take. I’d rather put my money on the over, though. Illinois offense has the weapons and protection to expose Wyoming’s defense, and even though the Cowboys lost a lot of talent in the offseason, the Illini defense doesn’t scare us away and Wyoming, who averaged over 25 ppg last season, should be able to get close to 20 by the final whistle. Give me the over.
Hawaii +7 (-115), to win 2 units
Hawaii will host their first matchup at home, and while the Rainbow Warriors are far from an elite college football team, they’ve been really good in this spot. Since 2017, they’ve only lost one opener, and that was against a much better opponent in UCLA last year. At home, with all the pomp and circumstance they’ll roll out in front of their home fans, I’m not sure Vanderbilt will be ready. Hawaii’s offensive line just got healthy and I have to believe the whole team will play WAY over their heads. In short, these two squads are very evenly matched, so we’re not quite sure how Vandy is 7 point favorites on the road. Take Hawaii with confidence.
(Week 1)
Notre Dame +15 (-110), 1.5 units, September 3
Everyone loves the Buckeyes and for good reason. They’re absolutely loaded with talent, especially on offense, and CJ Stroud is set to have a big year. That’s all fine and good, but there’s one area where Ohio State could be very vulnerable; their offensive line. Play schemes to accommodate speed make elite O-line play less important in college football, but Lindy’s preseason magazine, a highly touted and respected source for college football before the Week 1 kickoff, ranks the Irish as having the 4th best secondary AND defensive line in the country. Ohio State lacks O-line depth and arguably their best lineman, a 3 year sophomore, is coming off an ACL tear last season. Notre Dame is fired up under their new head coach and although they still have many question marks on offense, their showing against Oklahoma State in Marcus Freeman’s first game as HC is a good sign that this program will fight for their new leader. On top of that, Ohio State owns an unimpressive +9 margin against their last 15 ranked opponents, dating back 3 seasons under Ryan Day. Last season they beat Utah by only 3, Michigan by 15, Penn State by 9 and they lost outright to Oregon. Their one impressive showing vs ranked opponents last year was a win against an overrated Purdue team, ZzZzZ. Long story short – Notre Dame’s legacy is full of pride and they know they’re a big underdog heading into this contest. With Ohio State’s proclivity to let down and demonstrate underwhelming production despite their overwhelming talent, we have to take the Irish in Week 1.
Everyone loves the Buckeyes and for good reason. They’re absolutely loaded with talent, especially on offense, and CJ Stroud is set to have a big year. That’s all fine and good, but there’s one area where Ohio State could be very vulnerable; their offensive line. Play schemes to accommodate speed make elite O-line play less important in college football, but Lindy’s preseason magazine, a highly touted and respected source for college football before the Week 1 kickoff, ranks the Irish as having the 4th best secondary AND defensive line in the country. Ohio State lacks O-line depth and arguably their best lineman, a 3 year sophomore, is coming off an ACL tear last season. Notre Dame is fired up under their new head coach and although they still have many question marks on offense, their showing against Oklahoma State in Marcus Freeman’s first game as HC is a good sign that this program will fight for their new leader. On top of that, Ohio State owns an unimpressive +9 margin against their last 15 ranked opponents, dating back 3 seasons under Ryan Day. Last season they beat Utah by only 3, Michigan by 15, Penn State by 9 and they lost outright to Oregon. Their one impressive showing vs ranked opponents last year was a win against an overrated Purdue team, ZzZzZ. Long story short – Notre Dame’s legacy is full of pride and they know they’re a big underdog heading into this contest. With Ohio State’s proclivity to let down and demonstrate underwhelming production despite their overwhelming talent, we have to take the Irish in Week 1.
