2021 CFB Record: 106-88-1, +27.35u
2022 CFB Record: 1-0, +1.5u
I released four Week 1 Best Bets last night. Since then, I’ve finalized my Week 1 card(for now) with a few additional 1u-or-less plays. Check out my YouTube channel for individual game breakdowns, and if you’d like to receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*CFB(1u): Colorado +14 vs TCU–Fri 9/2; 9 PM CT
*CFB(1u): UCLA -23 vs Bowling Green–Sat 9/3; 1:30 PM CT
I think UCLA will make waves here in 2022. Chip Kelly inherited a broken program, and it has undeniably taken him some time to get the Bruins back on the right track. Last year’s team finished at 8-4 but oftentimes played like a 10-win team when QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson was healthy. DTR is now entering his 5th year as a collegiate starter and has all the makings of a guy who’s set for a massive senior season. His completion percentage has steadily increased over the past 4 years, and his prescence as a runner(over 600 yards on the ground last year) makes him a nightmare to match up across. I project DTR will finish right around that 9 Y/A mark this year. Chip Kelly also has a true bruiser at RB with Zach Charbonnet back for another year. Charbonnet flashed his potential at Michigan and erupted for a 1,100+ yard season in 2021 that saw him tally over 5.5 YPC and punch in 13 TD’s. This Bowling Green front 7 might be solid by MAC standards, but they do not have the talent to handle this QB/RB tandem. UCLA is breaking in a plethora of new(but talented) WR’s, and this is a great opponent to do so against considering Bowling Green’s secondary(specifically safeties) figure to be this defense’s weakness.
Bowling Green’s offense ranked 128th out of 130 FBS teams a year ago by my offensive efficiency metrics; that’s behind well-known bottom dwellers such as UMASS and UCONN. QB Matt McDonald threw for just 6.5 Y/A last year, and he won’t get much help from his run game. UCLA actually has a very solid front 4 defensively, and their LB core got a boost via Hawaii transfer Darius Muasau. Perhaps their back 7 is still vulnerable in some of their tougher Pac12 matchups, but I don’t worry about how they’ll fare against what was the 3rd worst offense in CFB last year.
I don’t understand the market move towards Bowling Green here. I’m higher on UCLA than most and think that they could very well finish behind Utah in the Pac12 South Standings this year. I never imagined this would drop below 24, so I’ll play this at a pretty valuable number.
*CFB(1u): Ohio State -17 vs Notre Dame–Sat 9/3; 6:30 PM CT
I know we could’ve gotten a slightly better number earlier this week, but, if anything, the push towards Ohio State keeps this a 1u play instead of a best bet. Notre Dame being ranked or even thought of as a Top 5 team is absolutely laughable. While this team has a high floor considering its experienced OL, solid defense, and the presence of TE Michael Mayer, they simply lack the offensive firepower that it’s going to take to hang with the 2022 Buckeyes. QB Tyler Buchner is still very early in his development curve; in a limited sample size last year, he completed less than 60% of his passes and threw as many INT’s as he did TD’s. For as good as TE Michael Mayer is, Notre Dame lacks difference-making WR’s on the outside, whether it be due to injuries in Fall Camp or just the roster cycle of this Irish roster. Additionally, neither returning RB eclipsed the 5 YPC mark last year, with Chris Tyree coming in at an extremely underwhelming 4.1 YPC. I believe Jim Knowles will make an instant impact as Ohio State’s DC because the Buckeyes’ issues last year had a lot more to do with scheme/alignment than it did talent. If you don’t believe me, go watch the Oregon game.
I could spew about Ohio State’s offense for days, but to keep it short, this is my #1 offense in the country entering 2022. CJ Stroud’s 2021 numbers(71%, 9.8 Y/A, 38 TD vs 5 INT) read like scripture, the Buckeyes have the best WR in the country with young talent knocking on the doorstep, and RB Trayveon Henderson(1255 yards, 6.8 YPC, 15 TDs) is back after a stellar true freshman season. 1st year Notre Dame DC Al Golden is going to have to pick his poison with this offense, likely to no avail.
Notre Dame HC Marcus Freeman is an unproven commodity as a head coach. If last year’s Fiesta Bowl was any indication, he has a long way to go to get to the level of Ryan Day. I think the Buckeyes come out and make a statement, winning this “primetime” game by 20+.
*2 Team Teaser(0.5u): West Virginia +13.5 @ Pitt AND UTSA +10.5 vs Houston–Thu 9/1; 6 PM CT
WVU HC Neal Brown has tried to get the most out of his prior 2 QB’s(Austin Kendall, Jarrett Doege), but now he finally has a true difference-making threat at that position with the import of former 5-star JT Daniels. The last time we saw Daniels over an extended stretch in 2020, he was playing as well as any QB in America(over 10 Y/A). Paired with OC Graham Harrell, a coach he worked with back in his days at USC, and I think you have an instantly upgraded passing game. Pitt can get after the QB as well as any front 4 in the country, but thankfully, WVU returns all 5 starters on the OL and won’t feature too many slow-developing plays. What we saw from Pitt’s offense(from a style perspective) in 2021 is a total one-off fluke in my opinion. Prior to last year, Pat Narduzzi was notorious for his ultra-conservative nature; all offseason, he has bitched about how he wished they would’ve run the ball more despite having a Heisman-level QB. I’m not as high on Pitt QB and former USC transfer Kedon Slovis, so I think the Panthers will have a tough time closing this game out with this apparent shift back to the run-first offense. As mediocre as Neal Brown has been in his 3 years in Morgantown, he has played a lot of superior teams close to the tune of 1-possession losses. If these teams were to match up later in the year, I think WVU would have better odds here. Still, I think this ends in one-possession fashion.
Houston is extremely one-dimensional offensively; they lost their RB1 Alton McCaskill to a season ending injury and will now have to rely on Ta’Zhawn Henry(career 4.4 YPC) to establish some sort of run game. Houston’s OL is also a bit of a concern, returning just 2 starters. Even last year, this was anything but a strength for the Cougars offense. UTSA won the Conference-USA last year and is extremely experienced on the offensive side. QB Frank Harris held a 5:1 TD/INT ratio a year ago and is well-built for this system. He returns all 3 of his top WR targets from a year ago; I think this unit can take advantage of a Houston secondary that must replace their top 2 CB’s from last year’s squad. I think the Roadrunners are live to win this game outright, but I’d feel much better expecting them to keep it within 1 possession.
*CFB(0.32u): North Texas ML(+310) vs SMU–Sat 9/3: 6:30 PM CT
SMU is always an “eye candy” type of team that is disappointing on the defensive side of the ball. While their DL should be the strength of this unit, the back 7 is shaky at best. North Texas got its feet wet with a hard-nosed Week 0 win at UTEP, and considering that was around a “PK” price, it was a one-sided route. SMU’s passing game should be good, but Tanner Mordecai did have his issues with INT’s(12) a year ago. Getting over 3:1 odds with the home ‘dog here is outrageous considering how bad I expect SMU’s defense to be.
