I bring a MLB record of 157-144-6, +6.57u into this Friday night slate and have 3 selections to kick off the weekend. To receive a text if I make any additions to Week 3 CFB card, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Red Sox -1.5(-105) vs Royals–6:10 PM CT
Red Sox SP Michael Wacha has been phenomenal at Fenway Park this year, bringing a 1.79 ERA and 0.90 WHIP into tonight’s start. This is a very favorable matchup facing a Royals offense that looked lifeless while getting swept in Minnesota earlier this week. Since July 1st, KCR holds a measly 86 wRC+ vs righties away from their home park. I see a clear path for Wacha to continue his home success tonight.
It has clearly been a disappointing year for the Red Sox, but I still think there is enough firepower in their lineup to take advantage of favorable matchups. Royals SP Jonathan Heasley is utterly atrocious, holding a 1.59 WHIP and 1:1 K/BB ratio on the road this year. Heasley has also allowed 1.9 HR/9 this season, something that likely won’t play well at Fenway Park.
The Royals have far-and-away the worst bullpen in baseball. With the Sox coming on an off day, they’ll have a major advantage in the later innings.
*MLB(1u): Rangers/Rays F5 OVER 3.5(-120)–6:10 PM CT
Rays SP Corey Kluber is well past his prime and has been very hit-or-miss for the Rays this season. His velocity is down over 4 mph from what is was during his prime in Cleveland, and he’s allowing more HR’s than at any other point in his career. This Rangers offense is sneaky, holding a 112 wRC+ vs righties on the road since July 1st. They have scored 35 runs over their last 6 games, making this anything but an easy matchup for Kluber.
Rangers SP Martin Perez has somehow skated by with a sub-3.00 ERA this year despite holding a 1.23 WHIP. Give him credit for escaping damage, but that WHIP shows that the potential for damage is pretty prevalent. The Rays put up 11 runs in Toronto yesterday and have actually been quite good in this role; since July 1st, they hold a stunning 142 wRC+ vs lefties at the Trop.
F5 totals at 3.5 should be reserved for top-of-the-line pitching matchups and/or putrid offensive matchups. We’re not getting either of those situations here.
*MLB(0.62u): Phillies F5 ML(+160) @ Braves–6:20 PM CT
Braves SP Max Fried is a top-of-the-line arm that limits homers at an elite rate, but the Phillies have handled him well this year. In 2 starts(12 innings), Fried has yielded 5 ER and 16 baserunners to this Phillies lineup. Despite a loss in Miami yesterday, I would say this Phillies lineup is in good current form having scored over 5 runs/game over their last 7 games. Since July 1st, the Phils also rank 3rd in baseball with a 126 wRC+ vs lefties away from their home ballpark. I like Fried in a lot of spots, but this is not one of them.
Phillies SP Ranger Suarez has struggled at home this year, but his road numbers are quite stout(2.76 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 0.6 HR/9). Suarez produces over twice as many ground balls as fly balls and limits hard contact quite well. The Braves offense deteriorated greatly on their recent 8 game road trip, and since July 1st, they hold a pretty pedestrian 103 wRC+ vs lefties at home.
This is a lot more competitive of a matchup than many would be willing to admit. Given the Braves’ massive edge in the bullpen, however, this will remain a F5 sprinkle.
