Coming off a profitable week in MLB, my season record sits at 162-148-6, +7.07u. The playoffs are just days away, but I do like 3 plays for tonight to get the week started. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Guardians F5 -0.5(-120) vs Royals–5:10 PM CT
This is a seismic pitching mismatch, particularly when you consider how bad Royals SP Zack Grienke has been on the road(5.68 ERA, 1.52 WHIP). I know Grienke is a veteran with a long track record of success, but we have successfully faded him repeatedly in his road starts this year. He’s allowing nearly 28% of balls to be hit 95+ mph and striking out less than 5 batters/9 innings… not a good combo to say the least. While the Guardians offense is not full of world beaters, they have proven plenty component in this role to take advantage of a washed up arm.
Guardians SP Triston McKenzie has had a fantastic season, bringing a sub-3.00 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP into tonight’s start. McKenzie’s one kryptonite this year has been allowing the HR ball; thankfully, weather is on our side with a moderate wind blowing in. More importantly, this is a dream matchup to put a bow on his regular season. Since August 1st, the Royals hold a poor 81 wRC+ on the road vs righties.
Given the Royals have the worst bullpen in baseball, I would usually be on the run line here. However, the Guardians emptied out their bullpen in yesterday’s game, with many of those guys throwing 20+ pitches. With the postseason just days away, I don’t want to gamble with Terry Francona not putting his best relievers in there. I expect McKenzie to go 5 innings tonight like Shane Bieber did yesterday, so I’ll isolate the F5 here.
*MLB(1u): Astros ML(-120) vs Phillies–7:10 PM CT
Just because the Phillies “need” to win this game more than the Astros doesn’t mean they’re equipped to do so. Since August 1st, the Phillies have been HORRIBLE on the road vs right-handed pitching; their 81 wRC+ over the time period is good for 27th in baseball. Astros SP Lance McCullers can be a little shaky with his command, but he limits homers and hard contact at an All-Star rate. The Phillies consistently underperform in comparison to how much “talent” they have in their lineup; I won’t hold my breath expecting this to play out any differently.
Phillies SP Aaron Nola is deserving of a case study this offseason. Despite bringing a sub-1.00 WHIP into tonight’s start, Nola holds a 10-13 record on the season. Like clockwork(and similar to Robbie Ray), Nola has one blowup inning that seems to turn a seemingly strong start into a loss. This Astros lineup didn’t swing the bats great this weekend given the Rays starters they had to face, but since September 1st, they hold a 136 wRC+ at home vs righties. I think they’re more than equipped to put a crooked inning in this one.
A big part of this play is the bullpen disadvantage. Outside of Rafael Montero, every key arm will be available in this deep and effective Houston bullpen. The Phillies might have a “fresh” bullpen, but they are flat out terrible, ranking 24th in the league in bullpen WHIP.
*MLB(1u): Angels TT OVER 4.5(+115) @ Athletics–8:40 PM CT
We faded the Angels lineup routinely throughout the course of the summer, but since they gained Mike Trout back from the IL, this lineup has quietly shown lots of improvement. They held a respectable 107 wRC+ vs righties in the month of September, and now they enter a dream matchup. Athletics SP Adrian Martinez will be making his second straight start against this Angels lineup, a spot I absolutely hate for SP’s. That angle aside, there is simply not much to like about Martinez. His 6.08 ERA and 1.48 WHIP makes the obvious, but he’s also allowing an astounding 2.2 HR/9. This is a spot where the Angels offense should absolutely pounce.
As insurance, the Athletics’ bullpen ranks 22nd in bullpen WHIP, is not at full strength, and is a unit we’ve had success fading all season.
