Coming off a 5-3 week, all eyes are ahead on this Week 9 slate. I’ve already released 2 weeknight plays(one for tonight) and am back with 4 plays for this Saturday slate. I expect to have more for you this evening/tomorrow morning as this very well could be my highest volume card of the season.
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*CFB(1u): Minnesota -14 vs Rutgers–Saturday 1:30 PM CT
Minnesota has lost its last 3 games, but I do think some context is needed. The Purdue loss at home was a poor performance without a doubt, but the Gophers were going toe-to-toe with Illinois(arguably the best defense in CFB) until QB Tanner Morgan suffered a head injury and had to leave the game. Backup Athan Kaliakmanis is clearly not ready to run this offense, as demonstrated in last week’s loss at Penn State. With Morgan expected back this week, I think this is a great “buy low” spot on the Gophers.
Morgan and OC Kirk Ciarrocca simply work well together. Morgan threw for over 10 Y/A in 2019 under Ciarrocca, leading the Gophers to a historic 11-win season. We saw Morgan regress these past 2 years under Mike Sanford, but with the old system back in place, Morgan has looked much like his 2019 self this season(9.4 Y/A). When you pair Morgan’s threat as a passer with a borderline elite RB room led by Mo Ibrahim(5.9 YPC), I think Minnesota’s best football lays ahead. Rutgers is clearly a team led by their defense, but at this point in the Greg Schiano rebuild, I don’t see them as physical enough up front to go toe-to-toe with a Minnesota OL that has exceeded my expectations. Rutgers has a pretty good secondary, but when the threat of the vertical pass is there(think Ohio State), their run defense has slipped up.
Rutgers’ offense is absolutely putrid. The Scarlet Knights rank in the bottom 10 in the country in yards/play, and quite frankly, I don’t like any aspect of this matchup going up against Minnesota’s defense. Much like the DL, I don’t think Rutgers’ OL is to a point where they can be trusted against this Minnesota front 7. Rutgers’ run game has proven to be extremely mediocre, and Greg Schiano has played a version of “QB Roulette” this season. We saw Noah Vedral deliver a win for Rutgers last week, so we can expect to see Schiano run it back with the senior this week. That would be best case scenario given Vedral clearly has the lowest ceiling in the Rutgers QB room and has thrown for just 6.2 Y/A throughout his career. Minnesota’s secondary has done a good job of limiting explosive plays through the air, so I won’t expect that to change in what’s a very favorable matchup.
Minnesota has had a rough October, but if you would’ve told me a few weeks ago I could get the Gophers at this number against a “low ceiling” team with issues in the trenches, I would’ve raced to the window. Getting Morgan back completely changes the dynamics of this matchup; I see something along the lines of a 35-13 Minnesota win, making this number far too short.
*CFB(1u): Cal +17 vs Oregon–Saturday 2:30 PM CT
As you might expect with a 17-point spread, the favorite is going to have clear matchups advantages. If you want to have success betting underdogs, get used to that. For a multitude of reasons, I view this as a “sell high” spot on Oregon.
Before we get into the matchups, I want to dig into some of the intangibles of this game. First, are we sure Oregon HC Dan Lanning deserves this much benefit of the doubt as a first-year HC? Coming off of last week’s win vs UCLA, this is a total “flat spot” for the Ducks; has Lanning proven he’ll have his team ready in these sorts of spots? Secondly, public sentiment is incredibly high on Oregon at the moment, which has pushed this line up from the 14.5 point open. You can never assume that any team can roll the ball out and win by 3 TD’s every week, especially when that team still has quite a few question marks defensively. Let’s not forget, they allowed 41 points to a mediocre Washington State offense on the road earlier in the year. The Ducks are struggling to get pressure on the QB and are allowing far too many explosive plays on the ground. While the consistency is not where you’d like it, Cal RB Jaydn Ott clearly has the explosiveness to take advantage of this Oregon run defense; he ran for 274 yards and 3 TD’s against Arizona earlier in the year.
Cal is a pretty mediocre team across the board, but there is reason to believe they will step up well in this spot. In the Golden Bears’ two toughest games this year(@ Notre Dame, vs Washington), they played each to a 7-point loss. For as untrustworthy as Justin Wilcox is as a favorite, Justin Wilcox as an underdog is a totally different animal. I like that this is Cal’s 2nd straight home game, and I like the identity of their team is stopping the run, something that is clearly a must facing off against Oregon. If Cal can put this game on the arm of Oregon QB Bo Nix… I like our chances.
Again, with a spread this big, there are going to be clear matchup advantages for the favorite. With that said, I HATE the spot for Oregon and am not as sold that they are a dominant force and/or a complete football team. I like Cal to keep this game close.
*CFB(1u): Kansas State ML(-120) vs Oklahoma State–Saturday 2:30 PM CT
Both teams come limping into this matchup at less than 100%, but clearly Oklahoma State is the more injured team. The Cowboys were without 5 key contributors against Texas last week, had a few more guys go down in that game, and are playing with a hurt QB in Spencer Sanders. K-State QB Adrian Martinez left last week’s game for the Wildcats, and I am making this play with the expectation that Martinez won’t play. With that said, K-State has clear matchup advantages across the board that make them a “play on” in a pick-em type of game.
Kansas State’s run game is light years ahead of Oklahoma State’s. K-State RB Deuce Vaughn(5.6 YPC) is one of the most slippery backs in the country, while Oklahoma State’s main RB has run for just 3.7 YPC this year. Mike Gundy has some younger guys with more explosiveness that he refuses to play more, and I think those moves will only be made after a loss. I would also give Kansas State the slight edge in the trenches given we’ve seen their pass rush improve in recent weeks while Oklahoma State’s OL has started to show cracks in protecting Sanders(7 sacks last 3 weeks). Sanders is an experienced player that is tough as nails, but he has also yet to throw for more than 7 Y/A on a Big12 opponent this season. When you combine the lack of explosiveness the Cowboys are getting out of their run game, I really don’t think as highly of their offense as many.
Oklahoma State is EXTREMELY fortunate to be 6-1 at this point. They have been out gained in 3 of their 4 Big12 games, and on average, they are getting out gained by over 70 yards in conference play. In addition to their offensive limitations, I am still not sold on their secondary. K-State QB Will Howard proved plenty capable of running this offense last week(11.3 Y/A), and with a full week to prepare and a slew of experienced WR’s to work with, I think this is a weakness that the Wildcats can exploit.
Oklahoma State is experiencing the gauntlet that is the Big12 schedule. With their (lack of) health, with this being their 2nd road game in 3 weeks, and with K-State’s matchup advantages across the board, I expect the Wildcats to get the job done regardless of who plays QB.
*CFB(1u): Baylor +2.5 @ Texas Tech–Saturday 6:30 PM CT
This is a true “contrast in styles” type of game. Some might call it “aggressive(Texas Tech) vs conservative(Baylor)”… I would call it “Reckless vs Smart”. Give Texas Tech credit for bringing a winning record into the latter portion of the season, but it’s clear to me that the formula first year HC Joey Maguire has chosen to deploy is not sustainable over time.
In their 4 Big12 games, Texas Tech has gone for it 25(!) times on 4th down. When it worked against Texas and West Virginia, it worked in a big way. When it didn’t work at Oklahoma State, it allowed the Cowboys to win by double digits despite TTU out gaining OSU by nearly 100 yards. Part of the reason Joey Maguire feels the need to go for it is because his offense lacks the ability to create explosive plays(bottom 30 in yards/play this season). We aren’t exactly sure who will play QB for the Red Raiders this week now that Tyler Shough is back healthy, but in this Air Raid system, don’t expect either QB to throw for over 7 Y/A. Baylor has limited explosive plays through the air well this year and have good players at the second-level, meaning Texas Tech is playing right into Baylor’s hand with their Air Raid style.
On the other hand, Baylor QB Blake Shapen does have the ability to create explosive plays(9.4 Y/A in Big12 play this season). Shapen didn’t look great in his first game back from injury last week, but he’s proven enough to me where I feel comfortable saying Baylor has the QB advantage here. Baylor’s run game is not as explosive as it was a year ago, but they have a slew of high-floor RB’s that should be able to establish the run in this matchup. I’ll give Tech’s defense credit; they have been pretty solid across the board this year. However, I think they are still vulnerable against a true vertical passer, and their offensive philosophy(which leaves the opponent short fields) is sometimes their own worst enemy.
This a total coaching mismatch in my opinion, and I think it proves to be the difference in the game. Baylor wins a close win in Lubbock.
