I’ve released 6 CFB plays already and am back today with 4 more. Coming off a 5-3 Week 8, let’s break out this weekend!
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*CFB(1u): Notre Dame 1H +1 @ Syracuse–Saturday 11 AM CT
This is a bad spot for Syracuse coming off of last week’s heartbreaking loss at Clemson. Getting yourself up off the mat after a game like that is tough, and that’s especially true when you’re facing off with a physical team that is strong in the trenches.
Has Notre Dame been far too inconsistent this year? Yes. With that said, there is a lot to like about this football team. Defensively, they are quite good at all 3 levels. Getting pressure on the QB is a strength of this Notre Dame defense, and I expect that to be a big part of why they’re able to get stops in this matchup. Syracuse allowed 5 sacks against Clemson and 6 sacks vs Virginia earlier this season. I also think the Irish are quite solid within their back 7, specifically at that second level going up against the run. We know both QB Garrett Schrader and RB Sean Tucker are big factors in the run game, but I think Syracuse will have a tough time breaking much off with my expectation that they get beat up front. Perhaps Schrader can move the chains with his legs, but we’ve started to see him regress as a passer. He threw for just 6.4 Y/A against Clemson last week, and I have a tough time seeing him create explosive plays on this Irish defense.
The one thing I like about Syracuse’s defense is their ability to limit explosive plays over the top. However, do they really have a guy on that defense to account for Michael Mayer, the best TE in the nation? I expect that matchup to get exploited early and often. Additionally, I think Syracuse’s front 7 is overmatched going up against a physical Notre Dame OL. Notre Dame’s RB’s aren’t great, but I think they’re plenty solid enough to establish a run game in this matchup.
I want NO PART of this 2nd Half. Closing out games on the road is tough, and that’s especially true facing a team in Syracuse who has a comeback win over Purdue under their belt. With that said, early on, this road environment doesn’t scare me. Notre Dame has fared well on the road this year, and with their ability in the trenches, I expect them to come out fast and take a lead into the half.
*CFB(1u): Oklahoma/Iowa State OVER 56.5–Saturday 11 AM CT
Throwing out a standard total in an Oklahoma game is a bold move by the oddsmakers. Oklahoma Overs have been money for us this year(Both TCU and Kansas games cashed early in the 3Q), and I’m going right back to the well with it for many of the same reasons.
I believe this Oklahoma defense has flaws that are going to take a lot more than a BYE Week to fix. Their pass rush has vanished in Big12 play, and blown assignments in the Back 7 have led to teams moving the ball at will against this defense. Even in their bounce back win against Kansas, they still allowed 42 points and over 9 Y/A to backup QB Jason Bean. This Iowa State offense has left a lot to be desired this year(mostly in the run game), but we saw them take a step forward in their last game. QB Hunter Dekkers threw for over 9 Y/A against Texas, a defense that hasn’t been beaten over the top in any other game; if not for 2 red zone turnovers, Iowa State very well may have gotten into the 30’s in that game. Why would I not expect that to carry over against an Oklahoma defense that has allowed over 9 Y/A each of the past 3 weeks?
For as poor as the Sooners defense is, they have a Top 5-10 offense in the country when Dillon Gabriel is healthy. Gabriel has thrown for over 9 Y/A this year, and RB Eric Gray is over 7 YPC running behind an offensive line that has been quite impressive. Iowa State is a team led by their defense, but I still think their vulnerable in this type of matchup. Both Baylor and Kansas State had no problem beating this secondary over the top, and their pass rush has been underwhelming this year. I think, however, my trust in Oklahoma’s offense has much more to do with their acumen. Consider this: In a similar type of matchup against Kansas State’s defense, they put up 550 yards of total offense and probably left over 100 yards on the field with missed open receivers. When they’re at full strength, it’s hard to see this offense not getting into the 30’s.
A major consideration in this play is pace. Oklahoma runs at a maniacally fast tempo under Jeff Lebby, and we’ve seen Iowa State increase their tempo considerably this year. I think this game gets played in the 60’s.
*CFB(1u): Missouri/South Carolina UNDER 46–Saturday 3 PM CT
This play really checks all the boxes I look for when betting Unders. First off, both teams run at a considerably slow tempo, and each coach has shown he’s willing to run a lot of clock down the stretch of tight games. Perhaps more importantly, these are two pretty stagnant offenses, and it just so happens that each team’s strength defensively is limiting explosiveness through the air. Both of these QB’s have had a tough time finishing drives, and that shows when you consider each has thrown more INT’s than TD’s.
Missouri is averaging just 17.5 PPG in SEC play this year, and I have zero worries about going up against QB Brady Cook. The Tigers’ run game has been solid, however, and this is a South Carolina defense you can establish the run on. Expect long drives from Mizzou with a heavy ground attack.
QB Spencer Rattler is a solid player, but he lacks much difference-making talent around him. South Carolina may have put up 30 last week against Texas A&M, but 14 of those points can be attributed to defense/special teams; the Cocks put up just 286 yards of total offense. MarShawn Lloyd has emerged as a solid RB option for South Carolina, but I don’t view him as a threat to break off a ton of chunk plays.
The theme of this game will be long drives, poor red zone execution, and ultimately, a low-scoring game.
*CFB(1u): Kentucky/Tennessee OVER 61–Saturday 6 PM CT
I don’t particularly understand why this total has dropped throughout the week. Tennessee is an incredibly fast-paced team that plays a ton of high-possession games, and their bigger games against Florida and Alabama both went sailing over the total.
The matchup people are talking about is Kentucky’s OL going up against Tennessee’s pass rush. While Kentucky’s OL has been poor this year, it’s not unfathomable to think they have improved coming off the BYE Week. Hell, just look at how far LSU’s OL has come this year. Additionally, I would say it’s quite impressive that Will Levis has thrown for 10 Y/A this year despite being under immense pressure. I’ve had my doubts about Levis, but 10 Y/A is 10 Y/A. This Tennessee back 7 is notorious for allowing explosive plays, and I expect Levis to thrive in that department in this matchup. People also assume that Tennessee’s run defense is going to dominate this game. I’m not saying Kentucky RB Chris Rodriguez Jr will run wild, but this is a guy who was over 1200 yards and 6 YPC in the SEC last year, making him perhaps the most underrated back in the country.
Tennessee’s offense is an absolute juggernaut. QB Hendon Hooker is hovering around the 11 Y/A attempt mark, the ground attack has proven to be complementary to what they do through the air, and they’ve had a ton of WR’s start to step up as game-changing pieces. Kentucky is a defensive-minded and defensive-coached team, but how much did that matter last year when the Vols hung up 45 in Lexington? I don’t like how many explosive runs this ‘Cats defense has yielded, and while the secondary is solid, it’s going to take a lot more than “solid” or even “good” to get stops against Tennessee’s balanced attack. Tennessee hung up 52 on ALABAMA; expecting them to score in the upper-30’s is very reasonable.
I would lean towards Kentucky over the full game because I think their offense is plenty capable of answering back with explosive games of their own. However, Tennessee is a high-variance team, and playing sides in their games is a risky proposition. This is an Over team through and through, and I think that’s once again the correct way to approach this.
