Liberty vs UCONN +14 O/U 45.5
Last week I loved Liberty vs Arkansas and that money-line sprinkle was even nicer than the LSU one, but now it’s time to fade city. This is a bad spot for Liberty coming off such a massive win for the program and UCONN is waiting to make a statement on their own. This Huskie’s team under the leadership of Jim Mora isn’t exactly a juggernaut by any means, but they at least greatly improved from last year at -1.88 yards per play to just -.76 yards per play. Liberty on the other hand has only 1 loss this year in a close one to Wake Forest, but most of their schedule has been pretty easy and they are only a net positive .89 yards per play themsleves. Liberty wins with great defense, and that showed in the first half last week, but on offense they only rank 101st in success rate and 86th in offensive EPA. UCONN has already had some big wins themselves this year vs Fresno State and Boston College. I think that Liberty in a let down spot is very venerable here. Dogs of 14 or more with a total of 46 or less are 279-232 or 54.6 % which goes in the way that I am betting this game.
Take the Huskies +14 – 2.5 stars
Oklahoma vs West Virginia +7.5 O/U 66
What is a good breakfast food that people love to put butter on top of? The answer is Oklahoma, because that team is now toast after losing last week to Baylor. Why is Oklahoma even favored by this much away from home? What has Brett Venebles done to deserve this? Oklahoma ranks 82nd in defensive success rate. Hardly a good matchup against an offensive oriented Mountaineers team. West Virginia’s weakness is against the pass ranking 102nd in success rate, but Oklahoma isn’t exactly lighting it up themselves ranking 51st in passing yards per attempt. West Virginia can win out to make a bowl game here while Oklahoma might only care about beating their in state rival next week in Oklahoma State. Oklahoma only has a 1.03 net yards per play advantage over West Virginia and might struggle so far away from home. Oklahoma also has Oklahoma State on deck which they probably care about more. Take the Mountaineers.
West Virginia +7.5 – 2 stars – 1 Star ML +260
Georgia vs Mississippi State +16.5 O/U 53.5
- This is a bad spot for Georgia and if there is a flat spot on their schedule, it’s this week.
- Last week, all of Auburn’s yards to get close to Mississippi State were in garbage time.
- Bulldogs are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
- Wait for a 17 or buy it for 10 cents.
Mississippi State +17 -120 – 1.5 stars and sprinkle ML
