Here we are, the calendar is about to turn to June and we are approaching the 1/3 pole in the MLB season. All you big 4 sports bettors are about to be down to just baseball in a few weeks to scratch that gambling itch. Let’s get locked in on some Thursday night baseball.
My Analysis today turns to Citi Field in Queens, NY where the Mets (22-33) will host the Arizona Diamondbacks (25-30) at 7:10 ET. The current line sits at Arizona -123/ New York +103 with an Over/Under of 7 juiced to the under at -115. Game time temperature will be 68 degrees under clear skies with the wind blowing in from left at around 6mph.
The Mets are a mess. Since being a .500 club at 18-18 on May 8th they have dropped 15 of their last 19 games including eight of their last nine. They are averaging just 3.47 runs per contest over that span and only the White Sox have been worse. They held a team only meeting yesterday led by Francisco Lindor where he led a discussion about keeping a positive mindset following their defeat to the Dodgers. Also in the game yesterday reliever Jorge Lopez was ejected, threw his glove into the stands and stated in a post-game interview that “I think I’ve been on the worst team in probably the whole f–king MLB.” He was designated for assignment Wednesday night. In more Mets news yesterday closer Edwin Diaz hit the IL with Shoulder Impingement and slugger Pete Alonso got plunked in the hand. While X-rays came back clean for Alonso, he is going for more tests and I don’t anticipate him being in the lineup tonight. Lindor also has a bit of a banged up finger, but he played through it yesterday. I’m not sure there’s enough team meetings at Microsoft to write this ship.
New York will roll out top prospect, rookie Christian Scott who will be making his 5th career MLB start. Scott has been solid thus far at 0-2, but carrying a 3.97 ERA and a very closely matching 3.93 xFIP into the contest. His K-Rate is lower than expected vs his minor league numbers at 8.34 K/9, but it’s a small sample size and his walk rate is at 1.99 BB/9. The Mets bullpen has been rough the last week, but they do have a respectable 3.79 ERA overall.
The Diamondbacks will trot out Zac Gallen who is 5-4 with a 3.12 ERA and a 3.27 xFIP. His K-Rate is at 9.36 K/9 and the walk rate is at 2.34/9. Zac has been very good each of the last three seasons, although early on in 2024 we have seen his barrel rate and hard hit percent against rise above his career norms. Dbacks pen checks in at a 4.25 ERA
As far as the offense goes Arizona checks in at 14th in MLB with a .696 OPS and the Mets are 22nd at .674. Against right-handed pitching however the Mets actually hold the edge in OPS as the Snakes are actually smashing lefties. Arizona holds the edge in K/Game at 7.78 vs 8.15 for the Mets, and they also walk slightly more at 3.27 per game vs 3.11 for the Mets. The Snakes also have an advantage in BABIP at .288 vs .272.
Vegas likes this game to stay low scoring and close, and I think the starters should perform well. That being said, with everything that’s happened to the Mets the last few weeks, I don’t trust this spot against Gallen for them to snap out of their funk. No Alonso, a banged up Lindor and a bullpen in shambles leads me to think the Snakes get the first game of this series.
Take Arizona -123 for 1 Unit.
I’m also hitting AZ F5 -.5 for +125 for 1 Unit.
