We are now in the midst of Preseason action which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division.
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NFC South
2023 Records
Tampa Bay 9-8/ New Orleans 9-8/ Atlanta 7-10/ Carolina 2-15
Atlanta Falcons
How the leadership group in Atlanta thought Desmond Ridder was going to be the answer is beyond me, but they’ve fixed the QB issues bringing in Kirk Cousins to mentor first round pick Michael Penix Jr. Also Raheem Morris will get his second shot as an NFL Heach coach not counting his interim stint in Atlanta just a few years ago. Morris added Zac Robinson former passing game coordinator for the Rams as his OC and I expect a much more pass heavy unit on offense for Atlanta. They still have solid weapons at running back featuring Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. We should find out if Kyle Pitts is someone who can be elite now that he has a QB. I don’t think so from what I’ve seen, but he isn’t as bad as his stats his first few years have shown. Drake London will be joined by Darnell Mooney and Rondale Moore to help bolster the passing game. The Falcons return all five starters on the OL, but I think they may need to work on the pass protection a bit as they still allowed 2.4 sacks per game even with limited pass attempts. They weren’t much better run blocking, so this could be the weakness that undoes Cousins arrival.
This defense was study in 2023 especially against the run. They will switch to a 3-4 scheme and drafted Ruke Orhorhoro to be that piece in the middle. The line-backing core with get athletic play maker Troy Andersen back from injury and should bolster veteran Lorenzo Carter here. The secondary is to put it mildly a work in progress. I think only 1 or two spots are solidified at this point with A.J. Terrell at one Corner and Jessie Bates likely at safety. They didn’t really address the secondary in the draft and they weren’t good against big plays in 2023. They will need to have someone step up in the secondary or no lead may be safe.
They get the easiest schedule in the league for the second year in a row and Kirk Cousins should be worth a few more wins than the seven they got last season.
Vegas Win Projection: 9.5 Juiced Over -135, Under +105
New Orleans Saints
These guys…. For the second straight year I had what I thought was a very solid plus money play on them mid-year to win the division. In 2022 they choked. In 2023 they did what they needed to do down the stretch, but the Bucs just matched them step for step. I expect them to compete for the division title yet again as they had the best point differential in the division by a wide margin. Big changes are afoot on offense as longtime Saint Pete Carmichael was let go and Klint Kubiak, the passing game coordinator for Kyle Shanahan was brought in. His primary job will be getting the ground game going as they didn’t have any rushes by their running backs go for more than 20 yards aside from Taysom Hill’s designed attacks. Derek Carr has proven to be a serviceable if not elite option at QB in the league. He loses Michael Thomas, but has all his other key weapons returning at RB, WR and TE. Chris Olave looks to be a potential franchise WR on the outside. The biggest fix needed like Atlanta is the Offensive Line. Carr got knocked out of three separate games because they couldn’t keep him upright, and they couldn’t open any holes in the running game. They took OT Taliese Fuaga with the 14th overall pick and added guard Lucas Patrick in free agency. They will need to gel quickly as a unit and hope for improvement.
On defense they slipped backwards in rushing and passing stat categories vs 2023. They also had very limited amount of pressure on the QB ranking in the bottom 5 in the league in pressures and sacks. They added Chase Young who hasn’t yet lived up to potential, but certainly has the talent to address the pressure problems. The linebacker core led by Demario Davis is underwhelming. The secondary is the strength of the group and I loved the addition of Kool-Aid McKinstry in the second round. This group is likely not going to be much better than last year and age and injury is a concern with three starters over 30.
This team lived via the turnover where they feasted at +.6 TO/Game which contributed to their big point differential. I look for that to be a little closer this season, but there is again an easy schedule in play here.
Vegas Win Projection: 7.5 Juiced Under -120, Over -110
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
So even without Tom Brady the Bucs were able to claim their third straight division title. Baker Mayfield can obviously play and they should once again compete with both the Saints and Falcons for the crown this year. The team didn’t have much roster changeover outside of the draft so will need to be seen if they can produce a similar outcome. Our third NFC West Protege takes over at OC in Liam Coen coming over from the Rams. He will look to get a rushing attack going that was only 27th in EPA last season. Rachaad White is a solid back and led the league in offensive snaps by a RB in 2023. He will be joined by returning key playmakers Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Cade Otten. They also draft an offensive lineman in the first round to try and solidify their grouping.
The defense was stellar against the run led by linebacker Lavonte David and Nose Tackle Vita Vea. Calijah Kancey took a step forward lending some quickness on the line as well. The rest of the linebackers are in a state of flux with no real great options. The secondary will feature solid safety play from Antoine Winfield Jr. and will get back a familiar face on the other side in safety Jordan Whitehead in free agency. The corners were an issue all year in 2023, and may have even lost some skill and depth in the off-season.
There are certainly some question marks still around this team. They got younger, but also lost some key pieces.
Vegas Win Projection: 7.5 Juiced Over -160, Under +130
Carolina Panthers
It’s tough to get better when you give up a bunch of draft capital to go up and get your QB of the future and you pick the wrong one. That is seemingly after one year of Bryce Young looks like what has happened. Still the supporting cast looks to be slightly improved, but we will have to see if Bryce Young can also show some improvement over his 11 Touchdown, 10 Interception, 62 Sack season. They add Diante Johnson to be the #1 receiving option alongside Jonathan Mingo and Adam Thielen. Tight end Tommy Tremble showed some chemistry and the end of last year with Young when Thielen was out. They’ll have veterans Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders back at running back, and invested a second round pick in Jonathan Brooks. They made a big splash signing Guard Robert Hunt to $100 Million deal. They also invested in Guard Damien Lewis a few weeks later giving Young a huge upgrade in the middle of his O-Line.
On defense they traded away their best player Brian Burns to the Giants for almost zero return. They hope free agents Jadaveon Clowney and D.J. Wonnum can solidify the line with re-signed DT Derrick Brown. At Linebacker Shaq Thompson returns from a knee injury, but they let go of versatile LB Frankie Luvu. Top cornerback Jaycee Horn has been good, but needs to stay healthy. I think the defense is solid and they keep the same DC even with the head coaching change here, but they won’t be as productive as 2023 losing Burns and Luvu
The Panthers were 29th in offensive EPA and 26th on defense and never took a snap with a lead in the 4th quarter. I see a lot of that continuing here in 2024.
Vegas Win Projection: 5.5 Juiced Over -140, Under +110
2024 NFC South Predictions:
Atlanta Falcons 10-7 (Wins Division Tie-breaker)
New Orleans Saints 10-7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8-9
Carolina Panthers 4-13
NFC South Action:
Atlanta Falcons – No Action They’re gonna go from a team who tried to win with ball control to a team that will likely get into some shoot-outs. Super easy schedule keeps them in the hunt. I’ve got them almost right on the number
New Orleans Saints – Over 7.5 Wins -110, 2 Units. The NFC South gets the NFC East, and AFC West. They should get 3-4 wins there and their second place schedule is VS Cleveland, VS LARams and @Green Bay. The likely need to win three division games to hit the number and I think that happens easily.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – No Action. They did get a hard first place schedule draw, @Detroit, @Dallas and VS Baltimore. I could see them winning the division if they can steal a few of those, but I’m not sold on this group with that schedule.
Carolina Panthers – Strong Lean Under. Unless the offense gets a lot better this team is not winning 6 games. I may still pull the trigger on the under here small as their 4th place games are not easy with them facing a Cincinnati team with Joe Burrow back, an Arizona team with Kyler Murray and a Chicago team with Caleb Williams at the helm.
