Auburn vs Virginia -5.5 O/U 131.
It feels like forever ago that the Auburn Tigers almost lost their first game vs New Mexico State. After Oregon’s loss to Virginia, Auburn became the hottest team in the country and boy did they prove it vs North Carolina and Kentucky. Chuma Okeke tore his ACL two games ago vs the Tarheels and that injury may have actually acted more as a motivation for the other players on this team beating Kentucky last game. Looking at the stats and watching that game, Kentucky only shot 23% from 3 and 57% from the charity stripe. Kentucky was poorly coached this game shooting 21 threes and playing Auburns game while the Tigers were in serious foul trouble with their big forwards all game not to mention being without Okeke. Coach Calipari should have had more pounding done in the paint with Reid Travis and PJ Washington. Either way though you have to give it up to Bryce Brown last game from Auburn bing lights out again and shooting 8-12 for 24 points. He may have played his way into the next level. Virginia on the other hand got shell shocked against Purdue due to Carson Edwards scoring 42 points. They should have lost this game due to Purdue’s boneheaded playing and the end of the game allowing overtime. The fact that Virginia has endured being ousted last year and had a tough NCAA run through adversity makes me like this team even more in the final 4. Virginia still has a top 3 defense in the league and the second best offense. Virginia plays slow but they definitely have learned to be able to speed of the game if need be like we saw vs teams all year like Duke, UNC, NC State and Purdue. I think the injury to Chuma Okeke for Auburn is going to affect them more this game than it did against Kentucky due to Virginia’s great 3 point defense ranking 3rd in the nation which will cause more misses and more rebounds for Virginia. I think defensively the Okeke injury will hurt Auburn even more than offensively leaving some more offensive opportunities and open looks down low for Virginia’s Mamandi Diakite and Deandre Hunter. Auburn only shoots 42.5% on the road and I expect them to come back to earth this game now that they accomplished so much. Virginia shoots 47.7% on the road and hasn’t even played up to their potential this tournament. It’s Championship or bust for the Cavaliers.
Virginia -5 and lean over 131
Texas Tech vs Michigan State -2.5 O/U 132.5
Sparty coming off their biggest victory in a very long time. Duke was typical Duke having over double the free throw attempts over State but missing way too many of them. Kenny Goins hits the 3 point dagger at the end to secure the lead. Texas Tech has been a beast of a team coming into this game with the best defense in the NCAA. They also have a much improved offensive game with Matt Mooney and Jarrett Culver leading the charge. Even though the Red Raiders have a good offense ranking 30th on Kenpom, it still doesn’t match up to States 5th ranked offense and 8th ranked defense. States defense obviously isn’t a slouch holding teams like Duke to 67 points. Sparty also shoots a huge 48% on the road to Techs 44%. Being that the Guards are so good on both teams, I think this game will have to be won inside with State having a slight size and large experience advantage. One must give Izzo an ever so slight nod over Chris Beard being that he has been to 8 final fours and Beard was coaching Division 2 basketball 4 years ago. My raw numbers has this game at a pick-em but when u add in the experience, the coaching and the size, I have to favor State to 3 points. I have this game 67-64. Being that 3 is the most common key number, I am ok with laying the -2.5 and I really like Sparty getting an early start in this game.
Michigan State -2.5 and first to 10 points – First half under 61.5
ML Parlay – Michigan State and Virginia
