PLAYOFF PREVIEW 2019
We’re back! It’s been about a month, and I do apologize for the delay. Life sometimes gets too hectic, and for me it certainly did for quite a while. I never want to release plays that aren’t thoroughly researched, and now that things have calmed down and I’m able to put a proper amount of research into it, I’m happy to be back writing for all of you.
Today’s Article
The article today is slightly different. I’ll be releasing a couple of plays I like, but mostly I’m breaking down each playoff series helping you find edges throughout the series. I’ll have the traditional “Team in Games” pick, but I’ll also be highlighting situations that could make for interesting betting opportunities. I’ll be releasing newsletters as often as possible throughout the playoffs, so make sure you follow @jksportsbets on twitter for the latest information (and, of course, those in-games plays). We start in the East.
Tampa Bay Lightening v. Columbus Blue Jackets – This series seems like a good place to start since, at least on paper, it’s the most one-sided. Columbus finally pulled it together (depending on your definition of “together”) to make the playoffs, and as the saying goes, anything can happen in April. Just get here. For the Jackets, though, that’s probably not the case this time around. Bobrovsky’s numbers during playoff hockey are much weaker than the regular season. The sample size is small, but it’s all we have to work with at the moment. Vasilevsky is the leading candidate for the Vezina; it would be an upset if he doesn’t get it. Let’s try not to over-think this one. Tampa will take it. I do think, however, that Columbus steals one. Bobrovsky can put on the heat at a moment’s notice, and I think he shows up here. Maybe game 3 in Columbus. Look to bet the Jackets if they go into a 2-0 hole down in Florida.
Tampa Bay in 5.
Boston Bruins v. Toronto Maple Leafs – Arguably one of the two best matchups in the first round, and the best on the east coast. I’ve seen a lot of consensus for Boston, and it makes sense. Toronto’s last 40 games are wildly different than their first 40, and the B’s have been on a tear. But keep in mind that recent performance has shown to be less of an indicator in the first round of the playoffs than most people believe. This has all the makings of a great, seven game series. Rask is definitely worse in the postseason than the regular season, posting a .903 SV in 12 career games. Andersen, who is expected to start for the Leafs, has been even worse. When he has been good, however, is on 3+ days of rest, during which he posts a .922 SV this year. I really like Toronto in Game 1, then Boston in Game 2. Look for those opportunities. They may well seesaw the whole series. In the end, though, Boston is just playing too well.
Boston in 7.
Washington Capitals v. Carolina Hurricanes – Carolina is being written out of this series, but I don’t think it’s time to give up on them yet. I love this series because of the analytics. Carolina has the second-highest Corsi For percentage in the league behind only San Jose (another angle I like in the first round). Their xGF were nearly 200, yet they scored only 161. That’s a huge difference! Shot placement doesn’t explain all of that. Meanwhile, look at Washington. Expected GF 167, actual 197. Expected against 185, actual 165. All this is to say (and I think you can tell by watching their games), Washington has, on average, gotten luckier than they should have, and Carolina has not. I believe the ‘Canes win this series because I believe regression hits at the worst possible time for the Caps. Their standard in April seems to be the early exit, with last year the exception, so look for it again from the defending champs. I think Carolina goes 1-1 in the first two, then 1-1 in the next two. I look forward to this one. Given the public’s popularity of the Hurricanes, though, the odds on them winning the series are as low as +125 in some places. Yuck. Not the price I wanted, but I do believe they win.
Carolina in 7.
New York Islanders v. Pittsburgh Penguins – This one shouldn’t be as close as the numbers show. New York is a team built on defense. No player has more than 62 points, and they win more 1-0 games than I’ve ever seen. Pittsburgh is more well-rounded, with a decent offense and defense. The Isles just aren’t ready for the pressure. More than recent trends, in the postseason experience matters. And while I just got done saying the defending champs won’t leave the first-round, I think it’s important to understand what experience we’re talking about. We’re not talking about the ability to win it all any given year. We’re talking about the consistency, the results year after year, that showcase a team’s desire to perform for their fans and their city. There may be no team more versed in this than Pittsburgh. With the same core group of guys, they have shown to consistently win playoff series. When it’s time to play, Crosby and Malkin show up. This is their 14th straight trip to the postseason, and they’ve only lost in the first round once in those fourteen trips. That is impressive. Look for that experience to get the best of New York. The Pens look at a buck fifty at the moment, so a little steep for me. But I don’t blame you for laying the price.
Pittsburgh in 6.
Moving onto the West.
Calgary Flames v. Colorado Avalanche – Similarly to the East, we’re going to try not to overthink things here. Calgary has struggled all year between the pipes; that’s one area the Av’s have done quite well in lately. But Colorado is just not enough to compete with Calgary. Whether it’s the Jets, the Sharks, or anyone else, Calgary just wins. That’s what they do. They’re second in the league in goals for, compared to 15th for Colorado. The Av’s are top heavy, while the Flames are more balanced. Calgary swept all three games against Colorado, and with the extended time off, it shouldn’t be that long of a series here. The only decision is in 5 or in 6. You won’t find a good price on Calgary anywhere; there’s a reason for that.
Calgary in 5.
San Jose Sharks v. Vegas Golden Knights – This will rival the Leafs/Bruins series for best in the first round. Even though Vegas has only been around for two years, they already have a playoff history with the Sharks, having knocked them out of the second round last year en route to a Stanley Cup final appearance. The Knights have been damn good since the trade deadline, and the acquisition of Stone looks to have turned them into a true contender. There’s one aspect that so many have overlooked, though. San Jose hasn’t been healthy in months. Erik Karlsson had missed the last fourteen with a lower body injury before returning in the season finale against Colorado. In that time, the Sharks had a rotating door with Pavelski, Vlasic, Kane, and Couture battling injuries as well. In fact, that finale against Colorado was the first time the Sharks have been healthy since February; and while neither team was giving 100%, and Karlsson admitted after the game he was easing back into it, it was clear what this Sharks team can do. They are dangerous, and they’re my sleeper pick to win it all this year; I have several futures bets with them. This will be a nail-biter and it should go the distance, but the Sharks are just too good at home and too potent an offense. Possibly more important than any of that? The Sharks know this could be their last chance to get Jumbo Joe a cup. Their window is closing. They’ll play like it. Look for Martin Jones to get hot at the right time, like he has his whole career. Take them at -110.
San Jose in 7.
Nashville Predators v. Dallas Stars – This is another popular upset pick, but I’m not in agreement with it. Sure, Dallas had only one fewer ROW during the regular season than Nashville, but they don’t score enough. They overaged almost half a goal per game less than the Preds throughout the season, while they both allowed around 210 goals against. Nashville took the season series 3-2, and they’re just more balanced across the board. Where the Stars do have an edge is in goal. Ben Bishop has a 1.98 GAA and is playing incredibly well heading into the postseason. Given that, and Dallas’ defense, I don’t expect them to go quietly. But give credit where credit is due; Nashville started strong and ended strong, they only waivered in the middle of the season. That has historically bode well for teams heading into April. Give me Nashville.
Nashville in 6.
Winnipeg Jets v. St. Louis Blues – This is probably the most challenging series for me to pick. I’ve gone back and forth on this one, so let’s look at the numbers. Yes, the Blues are just higher in nearly every advanced analytical category. They have a higher Corsi For %, a higher SC%, they have a worse axDiff (which gives the total difference between goals scored and expected goals scored plus goals allowed and expected goals allowed), meaning they got unluckier during the season. They rank 7th in the league in scoring chances for (SC%) and 5th in high-danger scoring chances for (HDF%). The big key for me, though, is that they just haven’t converted on those chances. They are ranking 22nd in high-danger conversion percentage. Can they convert? That will be the ultimate determination of this series. My belief is that if they couldn’t in the regular season, they won’t in the playoffs. Not against a team so eager to get to the Cup finals. The crazy part is that the Jets are the underdog on most sites simply because of the way the Blues have been playing lately. But what we do we know about hockey in April? All bets are off. I love the price on the Jets, and I’m hammering it.
Winnipeg in 7.
Conclusion – I have four of the eight series going to seven games, and while that may seem high, it’s because I believe this is actually going to be one of the best first-rounds that we’ve seen in years. For the investment picks? I like the price on San Jose. I like the price on Winnipeg. And I like the series exact result for Nashville and Carolina.
Carolina Hurricanes (Series Exact Result) 4-3.
+550. 1 unit.
San Jose Sharks to Win Series. -110. 2 units.
Nashville Predators (Series Exact Result) 4-2. +450. 2 units.
Winnipeg Jets to Win Series. +130. 3 units.
Below find all my playoff picks. I’ll be releases previews of each round as they come, and I’ll have newsletters up as often as possible during the playoffs. They may be brief, but I’ll do my best to get you guys some quick insights and my picks for the day. Make sure you follow on twitter (@jksportsbets), as I often release in-game plays that have shown to be very profitable. Get that alarm ringing, and let’s get ready for some PLAYOFF HOCKEY!
Tampa Bay
v. Columbus – Tampa Bay in 5.
Boston v. Toronto – Boston in 7.
Washington v. Carolina – Carolina in 7.
New York v. Pittsburgh – Pittsburgh in 6.
Calgary v. Colorado – Calgary in 5.
San Jose v. Vegas – San Jose
in 7.
Nashville v. Dallas – Nashville in 6.
Winnipeg v. St. Louis – Winnipeg in 7.
Tampa Bay v. Boston – Boston in 7.
Pittsburgh v. Carolina – Pittsburgh in 5.
Calgary v. San Jose – San Jose in 6.
Nashville v. Winnipeg – Winnipeg in 7.
Boston v. Pittsburgh – Boston in 6.
San Jose v. Winnipeg – San Jose in 7.
Boston v. San Jose – San Jose in 7.
