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Updated NCAA basketball records, 9-3 +5.12 units.
North Carolina at Notre Dame +6.5 (O/U 148.5)
Your preseason #1 seed has a distinct possibility of missing the tournament. They have lost 3 straight road games, as well as 5 of 6 and all in conference play. Now they have to face an Irish team who has put up quite a fight recently. Off a 2 point loss at Virginia and a 4 point loss at Duke, while holding those two teams to a combined 40% from the field. Well below their season average of 46.6% per game. The Irish are 5-5 ATS in their last 10 with covers vs. UVA, Duke, NCST and Syracuse. They have played much better than earlier in the season, combine that with the Tar Heels gaudy road numbers, I beleive 6.5 is way to many points to be giving up on the road.
North Carolina is just 1-6 ATS in their last 7, their only 2-6 ATS on two days rest and are 1-5 ATS away off of a LOSS. They don’t play the favorite role very well, are just 4-9 as favorites of 12 points or less and are 2-4 as favorites of 5-7 points. This tells me they play down to their opponents or are just not that good as Vegas thinks. If you’re reading this saying, “well trends aren’t everything.” You would be correct, but most of these are gaudy enough to mean something and for me the final kicker is, THEY ARE 1-13 ATS in NIGHT GAMES! When you start to receive my baseball plays you will see that this is one of my favorite angles, the preparation for a day game and a night game is vastly different. For anyone that played sports will understand the mind set is just downright contrasting.
So give me the Irish with the points, for a small UNIT UPGRADE.
Notre Dame +6.5 (FanDuel -110) 1 unit
Tulane at Houston -15 (O/U 146)
I truly spent extra time analyzing this game, and I believe I have come up with the right play. The Cougars come off a gritty win vs an inferior Memphis squad who they kept letting get back in the game. The Houston offense had issues scoring early and from downtown, only landing 3 total three pointers in 40 minutes. Well below their season average of almost 8 a game. Luckily for them, now they get to face a Tulane team who doesn’t play a whole lot of defense. Giving up 75.3 points per game, including 9.5 three pointers per contest.
Now I could sit here and tell you, Tulane is 6-1 to the over on the road or 10-4 to the over in night games but there is more to it than that. They average 82.3 points per game, 16 assists per game and get to the free throw line often! Averaging 17.5 makes per game. Let’s add to it they are one of the fastest teams in the country flying up and down the court. Yes Houston will score many times on the offensive end, but they can’t do it every possession. This is where Tulane will look to get fast points off of Cougar misses.
Now the kicker I found, Houston has struggled in this role each and every time this season. They’re 1-6 ATS at home vs teams over .500, and 0-5 ATS as 13 to 15.5 point favorites, with the over hitting 4 of the 5.
Let’s crush the over here with a nice UNIT UPGRADE!
Over 146 (BetRivers -110) 1.5 units
Good luck to everyone if you’re tailing, let’s keep building that bankroll!
