By Ron Marmalefsky – June 4, 2022
Starting with the AFC East, here is my first look at each team’s 2022 schedule.
BUFFALO: All AFC East teams square off vs the AFC North and the NFC North. In addition, AFC teams will have only eight home games in 2022. As a reminder, each Divisional team will play three uncommon opponents. Buffalo’s three are not easy, as they travel to LA on opening night to face the defending champs in the LA Rams, host Tennessee, and play at KC, all in the 1st six weeks! Von Miller returns to LA to face the team he helped get to and win the Super Bowl. Buffalo has the short week disadvantage when they play at Miami off MNF (9/25), but will travel to KC on 10/16 with the Chiefs off MNF, although KC stays at home for both games. The bye week comes early, giving them an edge in game #7 when hosting a GB team who will be in their 2nd of three consecutive road games. Games 8-11 are vs. four teams that did not make the playoffs in 2021. Notable here is that WR Diggs will host the team he began his career with (Minny). The most “veteran” QB’s Buffalo will face in games 11-15 will be Tua of Miami and Goff of the Lions. The other three games are vs. 2nd year QB’s, which has to be a perk for this veteran team. In an interesting twist, Buffalo will host all three Divisional rivals in three of the last five weeks of the season. The other two games are at Chicago on a Saturday and at Cincy on MNF. Despite the relatively tough schedule, the Bills have a +12 or +13 rest differential, best in the NFL. They face ZERO teams off of a bye week. Buffalo’s win total has held fairly firm at 11.5. I HAVE set my Power #’s, which of course may change by September. For now, Buffalo’s power # is 33, best in the NFL.
MIAMI: Miami was busy in the offseason, gutting their coaching staff, and reshaping the roster, especially offensively. They were less active in the draft, adding only four players. Games 1-4 are tough for the new staff. They open vs. NE and former Dolphin WR Parker, travel to Baltimore, host Buffalo, and then go to defending AFC champ Cincy for a short week Thursday Night game. How ready will the new staff and rebuilt offense be? Miami is 0-7 their last seven games vs. Buffalo. Having an early mini-bye might enable the staff to take a breath and regroup. Up next are the Jets, Vikings and Steelers. For Miami to contend, this has to be at least a 2-1 outcome. The Steeler game has Minkah Fitzpatrick returning to Miami, the team that traded him after just one season. Games 8-10 are at the Lions and Bears, and home to Cleveland. Counting a host of Houston after the bye week, Miami has a top five “easy” schedule in games 5-11. The going gets rough after that, beginning with three consecutive road games. Head Coach McDaniel and RB Mostert 1st travel to SF, the team he played for in 2021. They stay out west to face the Chargers before heading to Buffalo to face the Bills. With games 15-16 vs. GB and at NE, Miami’s staff will be severely tested. The finale is hosting the Jets. Miami’s win total is a steady 8.5. My opening Power # is 26.5.
NEW ENGLAND: NE was the perfect team for a rookie QB to land with, and Mac Jones had a solid rookie season. Year #2 will be interesting, with tape on Jones, a new offensive coordinator for the 1st time in over a decade, and a tricky schedule. The good news is that weeks 5-11 has them facing Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, Indy, and the Jets twice, once after their bye week. The toughest opponent might be Indy, and that’s a home game. The short week game is at the Jets, with NE having hosted Chicago on MNF the week before. The bad news is the rest of the schedule, plus a not so ideal -10 rest day differential. Games 1-4 are at Miami (NE not a great history there), at Pitt, home to physical Baltimore, and at GB. I think 2-2 is the ceiling. NE also is on the road three of four weeks after they host the Jets on 11/20. They play at Minny on Thanksgiving night, host the Bills exactly one week later, go to Arizona (MNF) with extra time to prepare and then stay on the coast with short rest to face Vegas on Sunday Night. That’s four prime time games in a row, which has to create mental fatigue. Somehow, that also feels like 2-2. NE closes with home games vs. Cincy and Miami and a road game at Buffalo. Expectations are not unusually high here, with their win total set at a modest 8.5. I’m using 27.5 as their opening Power #.
NEW YORK JETS: Based on my opening Power #’s the Jets have the AFC East’s toughest schedule (5th overall). That, coupled with a -8 rest day differential might be a reality check for a team with a year two Head Coach and QB, and by all accounts, a top tier 2022 NFL draft. The schedule is unusual in many ways. At least five, and maybe six opponents will have extra preparation time before facing the Jets. New York is also 0-12 lately in September, which has to change if they are to become relevant. In another rarity, games 1-4 are all vs. the relatively tough AFC North. At BEST, I see a 1-2 start. Perhaps Pitt is the “easiest” of the four games, but that game is at Pitt, and the Steelers will be off their mini-bye. So will Miami, their opponent in week five. Games 6-9 are no easier. They go to GB and Denver, then host NE and Buffalo. This has a strong 2-7 ceiling look to it, and despite roster improvement, the Jets could be underdogs in all nine games! The bye week will be welcome, but even then, NE has the same bye week, so the Jets get no rest differential edge. After hosting Chicago, they go to Minny with the Vikings off a mini-bye, and stay on the road to face Buffalo, with the Bills avoiding complacency thanks to their own mini-bye. HELP! Finally, there’s good news, as games 14-17 are “easier”. Does that come too late to have any real meaning? These games are home vs. the Lions and Jaguars, and on the road at Seattle and at Miami. For once the Jets have a scheduling edge with extra time before facing Seattle (and former safety Jamal Adams). The Jets have lost their last six games at Miami. The Jets opened with a win total of 5, but that number is rising (5.5 with juice). My opening Power # is 20.5.
Continuing with the AFC North here is my first look at each team’s 2022 schedule
BALTIMORE: All AFC North teams play the AFC East and the NFC South. Baltimore enters 2022 with three years of unfinished business. Injuries ruined 2021 but the Ravens have to do a better job of finishing games. No team has a bigger edge vs. their Divisional rivals than do these Ravens. Their 4th place schedule enables them to face Denver, Jacksonville and the NYG, teams that the rest of the AFC North will not face. Baltimore opens with four straight games vs. the AFC East. All four are regular Sunday starts. The goal is 3-1, and a potential leg up on their rivals. NBC picked a good game for week five, as Baltimore hosts Cincy. The Ravens have double revenge, with Joe Burrow throwing for 525 yards in the December game. I call it a perk when a team plays two games in the same road stadium. Baltimore goes to the NYG week six, which is where they were week one when they faced the Jets. While it’s not ideal to face Tom Brady and Tampa on a short week Thursday Night, it does give the Ravens eleven days to prepare for another road game, this one on MNF vs. the Saints, who will field a veteran team, but do so without Sean Payton. The bye week is next, meaning there won’t be a short week off MNF. If Baltimore plays well, they will be “flexed” to Sunday Night later in the year, but for now, the rest of the schedule is very nicely paced. In fact, all road games are close in distance and they have just one set of back-to-back road games after the bye week. Four of their last five games are vs. Divisional rivals. They play at Pitt and at Cleveland, host Atlanta and Pitt, and close at Cincy. Baltimore has a significant schedule edge over their Divisional rivals, and I have them to win the Division at +240 and +225. Their win total remains 9.5, but it’s now juiced. My opening Power # has been set at 29.
CINCINNATI: After going 6-25-1 in his 1st two seasons Zac Taylor and Cincy had a breakthrough season, and the chemistry was clearly evident. This is an ascending team with a good to great QB, but 2022 will be an enormous challenge in many ways. 1st, Super Bowl losers have had difficulty the following season. 2nd, expectations have been raised. 3rd, forget about schedule pacing, as Cincy will have five night games (one last year). Playing with less rest might be a challenge. The challenge is even tougher as Cincy is the only NFL team that plays three Sunday Night games on the road. Games 2-6 feature four road games. The good news is after they host Miami on a Thursday, Cincy gets ten days to prepare for a Sunday Night game at Baltimore. That’s a Divisional game, and Cincy has to regroup as they stay on the road to face New Orleans. QB Burrow played in Louisiana (LSU) and has fond memories from that experience. I’m not sure I’ve seen a team play three Divisional games on the road in prime time, but Cincy will play at Cleveland on MNF, and after a week ten bye, play at Pitt on SNF. Again, that means Cincy has to refocus in a hurry, staying on the road to face a Tennessee team that has playoff revenge on their minds, and ten days to prepare to host the Bengals. This starts a closing stretch with absolutely ZERO easy games. After facing Tennessee, Cincy hosts another team with (double) revenge in KC. Games 13-15 are hosting Cleveland, at Tampa, and at NE. How does the season close? They host Buffalo on MNF, and then have a short week to prepare for rival Baltimore. In total, their final eight games are vs. teams that went a combined 83-52-1 last year. I love how the team has been built, not with a quick fix, but with careful draft planning, targeting areas of need. But I hate the schedule. Cincy has win totals of both 9.5 and 10, and for me, asking Cincy to go 11-6 is perhaps too much. My opening Power # is set at 28, and that’s consistent with peak 2021 levels.
CLEVELAND: Cleveland has had trouble when expectations are high, as evidenced by both 2019 and 2021 performances. No one knows what realistic expectations will be for 2022. The good news is that the roster is fairly deep, and it’s hard to find many, if any soft spots. The bad news is what’s going on at QB, and who will start game one. One thing is for sure: Cleveland has a golden opportunity to get off to a great start. Games 1-4 are at Carolina, home to the Jets, home to Pitt on Thursday Night, and at Atlanta with ten days to prepare. Cleveland reportedly has not started 2-0 since 1993! Anything less than 3-1 would be a letdown no matter who is the opening day QB. The nice schedule continues with home games vs. the LA Chargers and vs. NE. Divisional games at Baltimore and home to Cincy (MNF) follow, right before the full bye week. If they block out the noise, this could be in the neighborhood of 6-2. Cleveland has no SNF or MNF games on the schedule unless they get flexed. The pacing is ideal but I have concerns about each of their three sets of back-to-back road games. For each trip, game #2 is the “marquee” affair. Is there a letdown for the initial road game? They travel to Miami before Buffalo, travel to Houston before Cincy, and travel to Washington before a week 18 game at Pitt. I really can’t trust this team to be focused at all times. The three home games in the 2nd half of the season are vs. Tampa (Bucs off a bye), vs. Baltimore (Ravens off their usual tough affair vs. Pitt) and vs. New Orleans. All eyes will be on this team in September, on the field as well as off the field. There is no season win total for them at the present time (one place opened at 9, another was 10). My extremely tentative opening Power # is set at 25.
PITTSBURGH: Pittsburgh starts the post Big Ben era with either the toughest or 2nd toughest 2022 schedule. Here’s four interesting tidbits about their schedule. 1st, this is the 8th year in a row Pitt opens on the road. Mike Tomlin is a veteran coach who can handle that, but why should he have to? 2nd, all 17 of their games are in the eastern time zone. That’s a nice perk. 3rd, that means Pitt travels the fewest miles of any team, by far. Finally, despite the absence of Big Ben, Pitt is still slated to play five prime time games. Mike Tomlin’s remade offense (see 2022 NFL draft report) will open at Cincy, who swept them a year ago. After hosting NE, Pitt goes to Cleveland for a short week Thursday Night game. We don’t know who will be Cleveland’s QB but the situation won’t be easy for the Steelers either way. The bye week is in early November, after Pitt travels to Miami on SNF and then goes to Philly, where they haven’t posted a road win since 1965. They host Cincy on 11/20 on SNF and then play at Indy on MNF. After that, the pacing is not in their favor. They remain on the road to face Atlanta, a short week game that could see them in vintage “trap” mode, with rival Baltimore up next. Any game after Baltimore is not easy. Going on the road to face a Panther’s team likely out of the playoffs could become another focus issue. The final three games are vs. Vegas, at Baltimore, and vs. Cleveland. Always a great rivalry, the two Baltimore games this year are late, not beginning until 12/11. Pittsburgh’s win total has been set at 7.5. It’s a strange thing to say, but my opening Power # is just 23 for this great organization.
Continuing with the AFC South here is my first look at each team’s 2022 schedule
HOUSTON: All AFC South teams play the tough AFC West and the easier NFC East. Houston is not expected to challenge for a playoff spot so they get a stable slate of afternoon game times, plus one Thursday night affair. New Coach Lovie Smith has seven games scheduled vs. other new coaches. Amazingly, six of those games are on the road, with only the home and home series vs. Divisional rival Jacksonville taking place on their own field. I have more bad news for them. 1st, only once will they play back-to-back home games. That happens games eight and nine when they host Tennessee and Philly, with the Philly game being the short week Thursday night affair. Not only will Houston play three teams off rest, their entire slate finds them with a -10 rest differential. I don’t like that doubly, since this is a team that for the 2nd season in a row has had over 50% roster turnover. Chemistry will not be achieved all season long. In “good news”, Houston will have six games vs. teams who, like them, come off a season with ten or more losses. I do like the fact that both the full bye and the mini bye comes early, giving the staff a chance to make some adjustments. On 9/25, Houston goes to Chicago, where Smith used to coach. The home NYG will have a full bye week before hosting Houston on 11/13 (Houston has the mini bye). Miami will have a full week off before hosting Houston on 11/27. The 12/4 Cleveland game “could” be interesting. It’s a home game, potentially vs. ex-Houston QB Deshaun Watson. The toughest stretch of games will follow. Houston will travel to Dallas, host KC, and travel to Tennessee. Closing games are vs. the Jags and at Indy. Houston has a win total of 4.5. My opening Power # is the NFL’s lowest, at just 17.
INDY: Like Baltimore, Indy has the edge when it comes to scheduling as compared to its Divisional rivals. Based on my opening Power #’s for each team, the Colts have one of the easier 2022 schedules. What’s strange about their schedule is playing five of their six Divisional games in the first seven weeks, including the two games vs. last year’s top AFC team, the Titans. They lost both games a year ago and will be out for revenge. I’m a tad surprised that neither game is in prime time. Indy and former QB Carson Wentz laid an egg in the finale vs. Jacksonville last year. They have early revenge (week two), but must erase their 0-6 record at their place of late. One bad aspect of Indy’s schedule is playing three road games on a short week. They play at Denver on a Thursday night, at Dallas on a Sunday night, right after a MNF game vs. Pitt, and play at the NYG after playing the LA Chargers on MNF. That seems a bit unfair. Going back to the game at Denver, is that somewhat dangerous, sandwiched around three Divisional affairs? Games nine through thirteen are dangerous for a number of reasons. They start with a trip to NE, followed by a west coast trip to Las Vegas. Remember that last year, Vegas upset Indy late in the year with Wentz feeling “sluggish” from Covid (his words). Hosting dangerous Philly follows, before a MNF game vs. Pitt and the short week SNF game at dangerous Dallas. What compounds matters is that Indy’s bye week is week 14, meaning fatigue could easily set in during this five-game stretch! They key to this season is winning early inside the Division, and ensuring that games 14-17 remain meaningful. If they are, the week 14 rest will be nice. Indy closes at Minny, home to the LA Chargers on MNF, at the NYG with that 3rd short week road game, and hosting Houston in the finale. Indy and Tennessee have the same season win total of 9.5, maybe thanks to the easier Indy schedule, but for a variety of reasons, I have Indy with the higher opening Power # (28.5).
JACKSONVILLE: The Jags will have just seven home games by choice thanks to their annual London game. This means they do not have back-to-back home games, will open the year with three of four on the road, and will have four of five on the road very late in the season. They chose NOT to have a week off after the London trip, so their 1st bye comes after week ten, which is not ideal for a new coaching staff, even if the coach has prior experience. The mini-bye is even later, after 12/22. At least Urban Meyer is gone, which for the players is refreshing. Is 1-3 the ceiling at the start? They go to Washington, host Indy (Indy week 18 revenge), go to play the LA Chargers, and stay on the road, heading to Philly, where Peterson used to coach and where he won a Super Bowl. Games 5-8 are easier. They host Houston, travel to Indy, host the NYG, and play Denver in London. The seven games after the week 11 bye will be challenging. The home games are vs. Baltimore, Dallas and Tennessee. The four road games in that five-game stretch are at Detroit and Tennessee, and later, at the NYJ and Houston. How much is the subtraction of Urban Meyer worth? The team has more talent now and QB Lawrence is in year #2, but the schedule and all the road games (and the multiple game road trips) might be too much to handle. The win total for the Jags has been set at 6.5. In what may be a surprise to some, my opening Power # set is at 21, four full points above Houston.
TENNESSEE: Tennessee has been a model of consistency with all of their consecutive winning seasons but 2021 ended on a sour note. They’ve played well under the lights (3-0 in 2021) and have four such games this year, beginning with an interesting game at Buffalo on MNF in week #2. I expect a close game the following week hosting Vegas. That’s a more important game then people may think, as up next is a game at Indy. Translated, that means the Titans could start 1-3 if they don’t watch out. The game at Washington is also tricky (especially coming off rival Indy), but certainly winnable. I like the placement of the bye week next, which can get Tennessee back in focus, just in case there is a rough start. Coach Vrabel is 4-0 off the bye week and the game happens to be vs. Indy, again. Weeks 9-13 are challenging. They play at KC on SNF, host Russell Wilson and Denver, who will be fully rested off their bye week, travel to GB for the short week Thursday Night affair, get extra rest before hosting Cincy, and finally, head to Philly. Tennessee is recently 0-6 playing on the road on Thursday, so the game at GB will be tough. The good news is that Vrabel is 4-0 after a Thursday game. With playoff revenge as well (which only matters this late IF the team with revenge has time off to think about it), I expect maximum effort. Here’s two additional notes about this stretch of games. 1st, note that the Titan pass defense will face Mahomes, Wilson, Rodgers and Burrow, all in a row! Also, former WR A.J. Brown will be waiting after that when Tennessee travels to Philly. Weeks 16-17 represent the only back-to-back home games for Tennessee. Those games are vs. Houston and then Dallas in a rare, short week Thursday Night December game. Tennessee closes at Jacksonville. The Titan’s season win total is 9.5. My opening Power # is “just” 27.5, at least for now.
Continuing with the AFC West here is my first look at each team’s 2022 schedule
DENVER: All AFC West teams play the AFC South and the NFC West. Denver underachieved under former Head Coach Fangio, but spirits are high now with a new staff, a top tier QB, and a 4th place schedule. The networks certainly noticed the arrival of Russell Wilson, as Denver is on prime time in an amazing four of the first six weeks. Why not start 2022 at Seattle on MNF, where the crowd will be electric? Luckily, an emotional Wilson and Denver will host Houston next, but even with one less day to prepare, that’s the best opponent they can hope for. Next comes SF on SNF, followed by a game at Vegas, who is on a winning streak vs. the Broncos. Denver hosts Indy on Thursday night, enabling them to have extra time off before playing at the LA Chargers on MNF. Once again, Denver is lucky that the short week which follows not only is for a home game, but is also vs. a supposed lower tier opponent in the NYJ. Designated the road team in London helps, as does the opponent, Jacksonville. Denver is off after the London trip, giving the new staff both the mini bye and the full bye early enough in the season that adjustments can be made. The pacing is better after the bye, although the opponents are challenging. Games 12-17 are difficult. It starts with a trip to Baltimore, which comes after a road game at Carolina. Next up is KC. It’s at home, on SNF, and the 1st of two vs. the multiple year AFC West champs. For Denver, it’s an opportunity to erase a 13-game losing streak vs. KC. Staying home after that helps, but they must remain focused as they face Arizona. The final three games are at the LA Rams, at KC and home to the LA Chargers. Denver has a legit QB and a likely upgrade at Head Coach, but the challenges on the field include navigating that top heavy opening prime time schedule as well as facing the toughest closing schedule in all of the NFL. Denver’s season win total is mostly 10, but there is a stray 10.5 or two, which seems high. My opening Power # set is at 27.
KANSAS CITY: KC has had an outstanding four-year run, but 2021 ended on a sour note as the Chiefs blew a big lead and allowed Cincy to win the AFC title. The AFC West got much stronger in the offseason, but the staff is intact and Mahomes is the QB, so let’s not write this team off. Still, the parade of QB’s KC will face in 2022 is quite daunting. Just in games 1-6 they will face Murray of Arizona, Herbert of the LA Chargers (Thursday Night), Matt Ryan and his new Indy team, Tom Brady and Tampa at their place on SNF, Derek Carr and Vegas and finally, Josh Allen and the revenge-minded Buffalo Bills. They’ll also travel to SF after playing Buffalo. This feels like 4-3 or even 3-4, not unlike a year ago when KC opened a (predictable) 4-4 before asserting themselves after that. The week eight bye is ideally placed, enabling KC to refocus. In the past, KC’s defense has had issues stopping Tennessee’s ground game. Andy Reid is masterful with rest, and I give KC the edge in this Sunday Night affair. Games 10-13 are vs. four more stout QB’s (Herbert and Wilson again, plus Stafford and Burrow). No wonder KC’s schedule grades out as either the toughest or 2nd toughest based on my Power #’s. KC is “blessed” with a three-game road stretch that includes playing Burrow, Wilson (SNF) and then Houston. Will playing Houston in that 3rd game be somewhat distracting? KC closes by hosting Seattle and Denver, and then going to Vegas. Often streaky, KC will be tough to beat if the Divisional title is on the line. Their win total is at 10.5 and in some places, 11. My opening Power # is set at 31.
LAS VEGAS: Vegas had a nice run in 2021, which not so ironically happened after Jon Gruden was fired. Under Gruden, there were too many highs and lows. The roster is clearly better, but the schedule is rough, and last year’s record was somewhat misleading with all their close wins. The start is immediately tricky. The five games before their bye week begins with a date at the LA Chargers, who will be out for revenge from that crazy final regular season game this past January. Can they focus the next week when Chandler Jones and the Raiders face Arizona, his former team? Games 3-5 are at Tennessee, home to Russell Wilson and Denver, and at KC on MNF. I feel as of 6/1 that 2-3 is the ceiling, despite the roster improvement. The early bye week once again is a nice thing to have for a new staff. Following Houston, Vegas plays four of their next five games on the road. Do they stay on the road after playing New Orleans, with Jacksonville up next? Later, they play at Denver and then at Seattle. Occasionally better playing on the road than at home, Vegas must live up to that mantra to remain alive in the playoff race. The schedule however remains unforgiving. After hosting the Chargers, Vegas plays three straight prime time games. They are at the LA Rams on Thursday Night, have ten days to prepare to face Josh McDaniel’s old team (NE) on SNF, and finally travel to Pitt for a Saturday Night game. Their closing games are at home, but the opponents are SF and KC, certainly no slouches. The good news is that only the game at Pitt on 12/24 might be played in cold weather. The bad news is that there is no easy stretch in the entire schedule. Most places show Vegas with a season win total of 8.5, with the outlier being a stray 8. The brutal scheduling start to the season has to be concerning. My opening Power # is set at 26.5.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: Is this the year LA stops shooting themselves in the foot (think special teams) and reaches the playoffs, perhaps by winning the AFC West? The roster looks good, but will the coaching staff make the right game winning decisions in crunch time, something that did not happen a year ago? Opening with two Divisional games is interesting. Game #1 is immediate revenge vs. the team that eliminated the Chargers in overtime last year (Vegas). Game #2 finds them heading immediately to KC for a Thursday Night game. LA has a win opportunity in each of the next five games, with the toughest two of the group being a date at Cleveland, followed by hosting Denver on MNF. LA plays four of the 1st five games after their bye week on the road. Like Las Vegas, LA has played well on the road. The goal is to achieve at least a record of 3-2 in this stretch, which includes road games at Atlanta and SF (SNF), a home game vs. KC, and road games at Arizona and Vegas. One thing that has to change is their home performance. Too many times the stadium is filled with more fans rooting for their opponents. Games 13 and 14 are home vs. playoff contenders Miami and Tennessee. Going just 5-4 at home (and worse than that in the past) can no longer be an option. The final three games are very tricky. They travel to Indy for a MNF game, have the short week of preparation before “hosting” the Rams on SNF, and close the year at Denver. For the Ram game, it’s not a true home field advantage as the two teams share the same stadium. The Denver game could be played in inclement weather. At least that’s probably the only threat of bad weather on their schedule. LA has a season win total of 10, but a handful of shops are at 10.5. My opening Power # is set at 28.5, a full two points higher than Vegas.
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