By Ron Marmalefsky – June 4, 2022
Starting with the NFC East, here is my first look at each team’s 2022 schedule.
DALLAS: All NFC East teams play the NFC North and the AFC South. Also, most NFC teams will play nine home games in 2022. With all that factored in, the four teams in this Division, along with Indy from the relatively soft AFC South have the five easiest schedules in 2022. Because Dallas plays on Thanksgiving, the Cowboys have an exciting three times where they have ten days between games. Overall, that contributes to a +8 rest day differential. Dallas opens hosting Tampa, a team they lost to on opening day, 2021. Tom Brady is 6-0 vs. the Cowboys in his career, but the game last year was close. Twice, Dallas will have three road games in a four-game stretch. After playing on MNF at the NYG, they come home to play Washington. Two tough road games follow, at Philly and at the LA Rams. Games 7-10 has Dallas playing all four NFC North teams. The Lions will be fully rested, but the Bears will be off MNF, and Dallas will be rested before traveling to play at GB, who will have just been on the road for three straight games. After playing at Minny, Dallas is home for three straight weeks. Games 11-15 are home to the NYG, Colts and Texans, a road game at the Jags, and back home to face Philly. Considering they have ten days before hosting Indy, while the Colts are off a MNF game, Dallas could go 4-1 or better in this stretch. Closing games are at Tennessee in a rare Thursday Night December game and at Washington, again with extra preparation time. Yes, Dallas lost a few players this offseason but is still the likely favorite in the Division. The season win total is 10.5. My opening Power # is set at 29.
NEW YORK GIANTS: The NYG thankfully have a new coaching staff, and even better, have a new GM that oversaw a solid 2022 draft. The next step is simple: Finding a way to actually win games early in the season. Designated the road team in London (vs. GB), they will have just seven true road games in 2022. The 1st important game is week two hosting Carolina. Win that, and the record is (likely) 1-1. Amazingly, after their opener on 9/11 at Tennessee, the NYG do not have a true road game until 10/23. Games 2,3,4, and 6 are at home, and game #5 is in London. The opponents won’t be easy. They host Dallas on SNF, and play a Baltimore team in its 2nd visit to the stadium, having earlier played the NYJ. In that Cowboy game, it’s been reported that QB Jones is 0-8 in prime time. Luckily, it’s the only night game on the NYG schedule. The “easiest” game in this part of the schedule is hosting Chicago. This is the 5th year in a row they will play, but both teams have new coaches and GM’s. In another tidbit, new defensive coordinator Wink Martingale will face his former team (Baltimore). The softer part of the schedule is games 7-10, when they go to Jacksonville and Seattle, have a week off, and then host Houston and Detroit. I don’t like THIS team not having a bye after the London game, so beginning week six (Baltimore), I expect a 1-2 ceiling before their bye week. That makes the two home games essential wins if they are to compete in 2022. Five of the NYG last seven games are vs. Divisional rivals. The other two games are at Minny and home to Indy. Those games are #15 and #16, and could be meaningful. Not expected to be fully contenders in 2022, wins here would change the dynamic. The NYG close the season at Philly, where they last won in 2013. I’ve seen mostly 7.5 as their opening season win total, juiced to the under. I think some 7 sets may be available. It’s a new staff, and still Daniel Jones at QB, so my opening Power # is set at 21.5.
PHILLY: I continually discuss how new coaches benefit from having early bye weeks. Philly’s the 2021 example. As noted in various podcasts, they adjusted offensively after their early bye week, and rocketed to the playoffs playing to their offensive strengths. Here comes year #2. Yes, the opponents are not overly tough, but the schedule layout is challenging. Here are the negatives. Philly is the only team that will have four road games with less preparation time. They are at Washington week three after playing on MNF, at Texas on Thursday night after a Sunday game, at Indy week 11 after playing Divisional rival Washington on MNF, and at Dallas on Saturday after a Sunday game in week 16. Yes, Dallas also has the short week, but for Philly, it’s their 3rd road game in a row, which is a disadvantage when considering the reduced time span. The good news is that the six games before the bye week are not that difficult. The goal is 3-1 (at Detroit, home to Minny on MNF, at Washington, home to the Jags) before playing at Arizona (no WR Hopkins) and home to Dallas on SNF. A win hosting the Cowboys “could” give Philly a nice early lead in the Division. The record could slip a bit after the bye with the game hosting a rested GB (mini-bye) a bit tricky. Right after that (week 13) Philly and new WR Brown hosts Tennessee and his former team. Up next is their three-game road stand (NYG, Chicago, Dallas on Saturday). Philly is 7-2 the last nine at Chicago, but 2-1 would certainly seem the ceiling in this stretch. Philly might hope for inclement weather when they host dome team New Orleans on 1/1. They close hosting the NYG. Philly’s seasonal win total is 8.5, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that moves up. My opening Power # set is 27.
WASHINGTON: Washington had erratic QB play in 2021 and the back end of the defense badly regressed. Is Carson Wentz the answer? Like the rest of the Division, the schedule is on the soft side, but there are some tricky parts to it. Washington’s bye week is week 14. Playing 13 straight weeks, including three road games in weeks 10-13 cries out fatigue! Can they steal a win at Detroit week two? Every win will matter before they get to those midseason road games. We’ll know plenty about Washington by the time October ends. Games three and four are home to Philly (emotional for Wentz) and at Dallas. Hosting Tennessee after the two Divisional games won’t be easy. Going to Chicago for a Thursday night game is likely a tossup at best. They have extra rest after that, but GB is a formidable opponent. Going to Indy pits Wentz against his 2021 teammates. As fatigue sets in, Washington must play at Philly on MNF and then travel to Houston on a short week, and their 11th straight game. Game placement matters. Houston may be the worst team in the NFL, but this situation greatly favors them. For their 13th straight game, Washington faces a NYG team who will be home and off ten days rest. The good news is that after the bye week, they host the NYG once again. The final three games are at SF (SF nine days off, Washington six), home to Cleveland, and home to Dallas (Dallas three extra days rest). It would seem like Washington is better than in 2021, but I don’t like the layout of the schedule enough to endorse them. Their opening season win total is 7.5. My opening Power # is set at 24.
Continuing with the NFC North here is my first look at each team’s 2022 schedule
CHICAGO: All NFC North teams play the NFC East and the AFC East. Chicago is still a TV draw, but after going 0-4 in prime time in 2021 they are down to three such affairs in 2022. The pacing for 2021 was not good. This one seems better, especially late in the season. Hosting SF week one could be interesting. They might want to steal a win in this spot, as they will play four of five on the road between weeks four and eight. The road games are at the NYG, Minny, NE on MNF, and Dallas with Chicago having the shorter preparation time. The home game in the middle of these contests is a Thursday night one with Washington. The full bye week is not until after week 13. How tired will the Bears be during the “easier” part of the schedule when they host Detroit, and go to Atlanta and the NYJ? The goal is a 3-5 start (I can’t see any better), and 3-2 or hopefully for them 4-1 before the bye, which in addition to the three games listed, also includes home games vs. Miami and GB. I don’t think the roster is good enough for even 6-7, but if I’m wrong, the final four games are not that daunting. Completing a stretch in which Chicago is at home for four of their final five games (plus the bye), the Bears host Philly and Buffalo, go to Detroit and finish by hosting Minny. Chicago’s season win total has not matched the late schedule optimism. They opened at 7.5, dropped to 7, and most of the current numbers are down to 6.5. My opening Power # set is 21.
DETROIT: I’m not a big fan of QB Goff, but the team surrounding him is getting better, and the coaching staff has a year under their belts. There are several reasons why the 2022 schedule is quite favorable. 1st, they travel the 2nd fewest miles of any NFL team. 2nd. They have a +11 rest day differential. 3rd, the scheduling pacing is nice, with NO NIGHT GAMES, and just the one annual Thanksgiving game. They are the only NFL team without a prime-time game. Finally, their bye week placements are perfectly spaced out, and they even have a three-game home stretch beginning on Thanksgiving. If they underachieve, it certainly won’t be because of the schedule. The goal is 3-2 early, with home games vs. Philly, Washington and Seattle, and road games at Minny and NE. The 1st five games after the full bye week have Miami and GB coming to Detroit, and road games at Dallas, Chicago and the NYG. No game is going to be easy for this still incomplete roster, but I expect many a close game, so strategy and kicking will be of the upmost importance. The late homestand starts out with Buffalo, and continues with Jacksonville (Lions rested) and Minny. If the Lions and Goff can start fast (in the season and in the games themselves), the closing stretch is also manageable. Games 14-16 are at the Jets and Panthers, and home to Chicago. Again, I like it when a team visits the same stadium twice, and the Lions will have played at the NYG four weeks earlier, before returning to play the Jets. Detroit closes at GB. As Chicago’s season win total moves down, the Lions win total has moved up, from an opener of 6 to 6.5 in many shops. I also have set my opening Power # above what I used for Chicago, with the number set at 22.
GREEN BAY: GB let a 2nd straight Super Bowl berth get away (as the #1 seed) in 2021 and tries to avoid the hat trick as the favorite again in the weaker NFC. Three issues concern me with this schedule. 1st, they have only eight “true” home games, with the 9th one in London. 2nd, they have a league worst -13 rest day differential. Finally, the bye week is in December, creating fatigue situations. The overall Power # of their opponents however, is on the softer side. Games 1-4 feature early Divisional affairs, plus a road game at Tampa and a home game vs. NE. 3-1 is possible, but not a guarantee. GB chose not to have a week off after going to London, but hosting the Jets after that trip isn’t the worse thing to have. After that however, GB has five of their next seven games on the road, including three road games in a row (Washington, Buffalo on SNF), Detroit). All seven of these games are before their bye week, so I look for fatigue during this period. In further notes for these games, Washington will have ten days to prepare, Buffalo will be off their full bye week, the Lions will be in their 2nd of back-to-back home games, Dallas will be off their full bye week, and when they play the short week, Thursday game hosting Tennessee, it will be their 11th game in a row without any rest. The good news is this: Even if they underachieve and go 8-5 or even 7-6 early on, the late bye may still find them leading the NFC North! Three of their final four games are at home, potentially in cold weather conditions. They host the Rams on MNF (GB off full bye, but Rams also have a mini-bye), go to Miami on short rest, host Minny (Minny off a Saturday game, so they get an extra day) and close hosting Detroit. I’m not in love with this pacing, but the Division is not that strong. GB opened with a seasonal win total of 11, but 10.5 is more common now. My opening Power # is set at 30.
MINNESOTA: Minnesota has been a good team for several years running, but never a true Super Bowl contender. They enter 2022 with a new GM and staff, this after the last combination proved dysfunctional at the end, with little to no dialogue. Contrary to GB’s situation, Minny’s London game finds them as the designated road team (New Orleans), meaning Minny has only seven true road games. I find it interesting that Minny’s uncommon opponents (the teams the rest of the Division will NOT play) are Arizona, Indy and the Saints). At 1st glance, these all look like tossups to me. I think the pre-bye week schedule is tricky. The new staff hosts GB week one and then goes to Philly for a MNF affair. The two offenses are vastly different in scheme. Hosting the Lions doesn’t seem overwhelming after that, but it’s a short week for the new staff. Again, Minny is another team that chose not to have their bye week after playing in London. They host Chicago and their new coach, so a win is still quite possible, but hardly a guarantee. The next game is at Miami and their new staff. I show 3-3 as the absolute ceiling for these games, and it could be worse. The goal is 2-1 after the bye (Arizona, at Washington, at Buffalo), but is that also a stretch? 5-4 would be ideal, as five of their next seven games are at home. The Thursday night game is hosting NE. I think it’s a plus facing Belichick when he has less time to prepare. There won’t be a letdown with ten days to prepare to host the Jets. Even at 3-6, Minny could still be in playoff contention with a strong showing in this set of games, but with road games at GB and Chicago to end 2022, I’m not sure they can completely rebound if 3-6 is indeed the record. Maybe it’s not horrible, but I do not find it ideal that their three Divisional games down the stretch (last five weeks) are all road games. Games 1-6 are incredibly important for this team. Minny’s season win total is 9, a number I think is too high, at least for now. My opening Power # is set at 26.5
Continuing with the NFC South here is my first look at each team’s 2022 schedule
ATLANTA: Atlanta and the rest of the Division plays games vs. the tough NFC West and the AFC North. My initial look at the schedule pacing finds me thinking Atlanta has some nice advantages. Their only night game is on a Thursday, meaning their Sunday schedule has the routine all coaches love. The negative is that the mini-bye is after week ten, and the full bye after week 13. It’s not a new staff, but it is a new QB, and adjustments will have to wait. The toughest part of the schedule is early, coming in weeks 2-7. The opener vs. New Orleans will find them as an underdog as well. After that, it’s road games at the LA Rams and Seahawks, home to Cleveland, at Tampa, home to SF, and at Cincy. Maybe they are favored vs. Cleveland (my opening Power #’s say no), but that’s it. They’ll play the Panthers twice in the next three weeks, including hosting them on that Thursday night game. Atlanta went 2-0 vs. Carolina a year ago. I think this year 1-1 is far more likely, obviously assuming injuries are not one-sided either way. Games 11-13 are home to Chicago, at Washington and home to Pitt. If Atlanta avoids fatigue, this is the part of the schedule (along with the games vs. Carolina) that is favorable. To reiterate, the pacing is fine, but how good is the roster? Both Atlanta and New Orleans are off bye weeks when they play in December. This is typically a tossup series no matter who seems like the better team. The closing three games are not easy, reading at Baltimore, and home to Arizona and Tampa. Atlanta has to hope that Arizona is in yet another late season swoon, and that Tampa might rest their 85-year-old QB, some guy named Tom Brady. Atlanta’s season win number opened at 5.5 (even 6 reportedly in one spot) but is now mostly seen at 5. I went under 5.5. My opening Power # is set at just 19.
CAROLINA: I went 7-2 in season over-unders a year ago (not counting profitable middle tries and arbs). My one OVER play was with Carolina, and it lost. The combination of Darnold and McCaffrey went 4-1 when both started, but Carolina was a putrid 1-11 otherwise. Like Atlanta, this team plays only one night game, and it’s the one they play at the Falcon’s home site. Just like Atlanta, they have a late mini-bye, and a December full bye. But unlike Atlanta, Carolina has a shot to make some noise early, with a favorable 1st five games. They open vs. Cleveland, a good team with complete uncertainty at QB. After going to play at the NYG, Carolina stays home to face New Orleans, Arizona and SF. SF will be off a huge revenge MNF game at the LA Rams. Last year Carolina started 3-0 (then McCaffrey was injured). 4-1 is achievable, although of course hardly a guarantee. Three of the next five games are inside the Division, including two vs. Atlanta. The other three are far tougher, reading at the LA Rams, home to Tampa and at Cincy (Cincy off a rare MNF game). If they stay healthy, I think 6-5 is possible before they host Denver. Is that realistic? Maybe not, but the pacing is nice. I do find the Denver game tricky because of potential fatigue. Games 13-15 after the bye week are manageable. They go to Seattle, and host Pitt and Detroit. 2-1 absolutely has to be the goal. I like Matt Ruhle as a program builder, but these days no Head Coach gets time to build a program. Carolina closes at Tampa and at New Orleans, which isn’t ideal. I’ve seen their season win total at 6 and 5.5. Carolina is NOT a public team. My search to find one seasonal OVER win total includes the Panthers, even though I got burned on them a year ago. We’ll see what happens right before the season starts. My opening Power # is set at 22.5.
NEW ORLEANS: New Orleans has a nasty habit of drafting about five players per season, but the players drafted usually are good, and the veterans they have added are also good. With QB Winston healthy, this could be an underrated team, but can Dennis Allen manage Winston like former coach Sean Payton, who was masterful in offensive scheming? Unlike the 1st two teams in this Division, I don’t like the pacing of this schedule. Games 1-3 are all inside the Division. That can be tricky for a new staff, although promoting in-house may make this a moot point. They lose a home game, with the London game vs. Minny the “9th” home game. They won’t take the week off, but will be home to face Seattle. They’ll stay at home to face Cincy, who will be off a physical SNF road game at Baltimore. Amazingly, 4-2 is in play as long as Winston and the offense stays relatively decent without Payton. Also note that the status of RB Kamara (off-field issue) must be monitored. I think the week seven Thursday night game at Arizona is tricky, and WR Hopkins return from suspension. The Saints host Baltimore on MNF with the Ravens off their mini-bye. That makes them dangerous. It also sets up a short week road game at Pitt, who will be off a full bye! See what I mean about the schedule pacing? Games 11-13 are interesting. They host the Rams (1st host since the blown PI call that cost New Orleans a Super Bowl appearance), go to SF and go to Tampa, who has had all kinds of issues vs. New Orleans and will be fully focused. Cold weather could await the Saints 12/24 (Cleveland) and 1/1 (Philly). This looks like a split at best. The Saints close by hosting Carolina. Not noted above is that New Orleans has a -8 rest day differential. A perplexing team for me to handicap at the present time, the season win total is 8.5, and at least one 8 set. My opening power # set is at 26.
TAMPA BAY: Tampa has a new coach, but like New Orleans, the hire was in-house. Unlike the Saints, their rest day differential comes in at +8. In other good news, they are home weeks 3-5 (GB, KC, Atlanta), and later they have a stretch that includes two home games, a game in Munich, and a bye week. They’ll have ten days to plot out playoff revenge before facing the LA Rams, and other than 11/27 at Cleveland, avoid any potential bad weather games. Not all the news is positive. Games 1-4 are at Dallas, at the Saints, home to GB and home to KC. The three teams Tampa faces that the rest of the Division will not face are GB, KC and Dallas. The Munich game has them the designated home team, so they lose that 9th true home game. The five games right after their week 11 bye are tricky, with road games at Cleveland, SF and Arizona, and home games vs. New Orleans and Cincy. Both the OL and the position of WR are weaker, and Tom Brady is not getting any younger. Maybe this has an effect, but Brady looks great thus offseason, and there’s still plenty of WR talent. The pacing of four of the five prime-time games is just fine. Only once do I have a concern, that being traveling to SF after playing a Divisional MNF game. Tampa’s win total is 11.5. I initially set their opening Power # at 29.5, but am strongly considering moving it up to 30, although I do think they will take a loss or two early, having to play a trio of veteran/elite QB’s, (Dallas, GB, KC).
Continuing with the NFC West here is my first look at each team’s 2022 schedule
ARIZONA: All NFC West teams play the NFC South and the top Division in the entire NFL, the AFC West. Both Arizona and the LA Rams have tough opponents in 2022 as compared to SF and Seattle. Games 1-3 are vs. Pat Mahomes and KC, at former Cardinal Chandler Jones and the Raiders, and home to the Rams. Games 4-9 are where Arizona can make some noise, even though WR Hopkins will miss the 1st six games of the season. Only the Eagles made the playoffs from these six opponents (Seahawks counted twice). The Saints have to come to Arizona for the Thursday night game, while Arizona then gets extra rest before going to Minny (Vikings off a full bye). I don’t think fatigue will be a factor with the mini-bye nicely paced, but the three games right before Arizona’s full bye are tough. They visit the Rams, go to altitude (Mexico City) to “host” SF on MNF, then come home to face the LA Chargers with less time to prepare. That game vs. SF is the 5th of their six Divisional games, which is a bit of an issue if they need to make up some ground. It’s also a bit unfair that a Divisional game is picked for the “neutral” site, which in this case favors SF. Arizona hosts NE off the bye week (Pats also off a mini-bye), which seems like an unusual, but interesting prime-time game. That again gives the Cardinals less time to prepare to go to Denver the following Sunday. Closing games are vs. Tampa, and on the road at Atlanta and SF. For a team that hasn’t played well late in recent seasons, I don’t like the setup. The talent is fine, but this is an important season for both the Head Coach and the defensive coordinator. Arizona’s season win total is mostly 9, with a couple places at 9.5. My opening Power # set is at 27.
LOS ANGELES RAMS: Rosters don’t matter in LA. During 2021, LA added Von Miller, Odell Beckham, Sony Michel and Eric Weddle, all critical pieces to get them over the hump. LA has nine home games and seven “true” road games. They are the designated “visiting” team vs. the Chargers. As Super Bowl champs, LA opens the year at home vs. Buffalo. SF will host LA week four (MNF). SF will be out for revenge, which carries modest weight given that the game is a) early in the season and b) in prime-time as a standalone affair. There could be a slight focus issue with a short week of preparation before hosting a decent Dallas team. Following the bye, LA stays home again, wrapping up the 49er series with still ten games to go. This is the tricky part of the schedule, with LA’s next three games at Tampa, home to Arizona, and at New Orleans, their 1st return visit to the site where a bad referee call put LA, and not New Orleans in the Super Bowl. LA’s uncommon opponents (teams the other Division rivals do not play) are Buffalo, Dallas, and GB, who they play on 12/19, at night, in potentially cold weather conditions. The good news is that they have ten days to prepare, as they will have hosted Vegas on a Thursday night. But these opponents contribute to LA having my 3rd toughest schedule, based on Power #’s as they stand right now. LA hosts Denver next, with once again a shorter time to prepare. The final games are “at” the LA Chargers and at Seattle. Note that Bobby Wagner is now an LA Ram, and he has already noted how he’s looking forward to playing his old team (12/4, and this one, back in Seattle). How many other new Rams will be signed between now and next December? LA’s season win total is 10.5. My opening Power # set is 30.
SAN FRANCISCO: Is Trey Lance the starting QB? Is Deebo Samuel a happy camper? SF was unlucky vs. the LA Rams, and must refocus in order to take the next step. My 1st glance at their schedule reveals more positives than negatives, even with games vs. the tough AFC West. 1st, the road game vs. Arizona will be played in Mexico City. In the amazing, but true column, SF plays at the LA Rams on 10/25, and then does NOT have another true road game until 12/15 (Thursday night in Seattle). This includes a week nine bye, four home games, and the game in Mexico City. SF is likely to be favored vs. all three uncommon opponents they play (opening day at Chicago, and home games vs. Miami and Washington). QB Lance can “ease” into 2022 with games 1-2 at Chicago and vs. Seattle. As noted in the LA Ram section, SF will be raring to go with revenge on the minds for the week four MNF host of the Rams. They may catch a small break hosting KC, with the Chiefs off an interesting game vs. Buffalo. Their only two-game road stand is at Carolina and Atlanta, two teams not expected to be playoff contenders. Note also that the game in Mexico City (game #10) is the last time SF will leave the West Coast! That’s rare. When SF hosts Miami (week 13), they will face their former offensive coordinator (now Miami’s head Coach) as well as RB Mostert. Their last four games present no schedule traps. They play at Seattle on a Thursday night, have extra time to prepare to host Washington, have one extra day before going to Vegas, and close the season hosting Arizona. This really isn’t bad, so watch the roster leading up to the start of 2022. SF’s season win total is mostly 10, with a couple shops at 9.5. My opening Power # is set at 27. Maybe that seems low, but QB Lance is raw. My #’s project where a team is at on opening day, not at a later point.
SEATTLE: Things are different in Seattle now with Russell Wilson out of the building. Of course, he will be IN the building week one, as his new team, Denver, comes here on MNF. That should be exciting. Like SF, the overall schedule is easier than Arizona’s or the LA Ram’s. In fact, Seattle’s uncommon opponents are the NYG, the NYJ and the Lions. In other good news, the game in Munich vs. Tampa was a scheduled road game, so Seattle maintains its nine-game home schedule. Also, their week 15 Thursday night game is at home (vs. SF). The only back-to-back road games are at Detroit and at New Orleans, which takes place 10/2 and 10/9. The game before that is hosting Atlanta. Games after the road outings are home to Arizona, at the LA Chargers and home to the NYG. Pete Carroll is relishing the challenge post Russell Wilson and the early slate gives him a fighting chance to prove prognosticators wrong. The trip to Munich is a long one, so the bye week will be welcomed. Five of the last seven games look challenging. They face the Rams twice, host Vegas and SF, and travel to KC. Perhaps 2-3 isn’t bad in these games, as long as they played well in the 1st half of the season, plus take care of business late hosting Carolina and the Jets. In total, Seattle stays home four of the last five weeks. Two other notes. 1st, Seattle faces a few ‘softer” QB’s weeks 2-5 in Lance, Mariota, Goff, and Winston. 2nd, the suspect OL might have some issues with the many very good pass rushers they will face, especially early in the year including Gregory (Denver, week one), Bosa (SF, week two), Cam Jordan (Saints, week five), J.J. Watt (Pitt, week six) and both Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack (Chargers, week seven). I’m pretty sure Seattle’s season win total opened at 6.5, but all I see now is 5.5. Could that be my one OVER play? We’ll see. My opening Power # is set at 22.
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