Take a look at the total in the Tulsa/Tulane matchup tonight. I like to look at the Game Center to keep an eye on market movements. This total opened at 140. Then, out of God knows where, it jumps to 147 with no bets on the OVER. This is what got my attention.
Then, when I take a look at the match-up and score projection engines who have algorithyms for scoring/tempo, I am seeing a lot of high 130’s. My own scoring system has this as a 140-142 pt game tonight from a raw numbers standpoint. Then, I see that Tulane comes in ranked 315th in the country in offensive efficiency, and in conference posts an offensive efficiency of dead last at 90.5 pts per 100 possessions. Conversely, Tulsa ranks 97th in defensive efficiency and has faced offensive efficiency teams on average ranked 68th in the country.
Both teams play at an above average pace: Tulsa 73rd, and Tulane 106th. But, I don’t think that tempo can get this score up to high 140’s. Take a look at the situational spot here. Tulsa is coming off a big home win where they blew out Temple in surprising fashion. The only reason I am not laying the points with Tulsa against Tulane is for that reason. Tulane has Houston on deck on Sunday. They have broken 70 pts three times since mid December. Tulsa’s defensive points allowed may throw you off a bit here, but their recent matchups have been Wichita State, Memphis, Houston, Cincinnati and UConn where they have had spotty defense.
I like our chances under 147 tonight.
PLAY: TULSA/TULANE under 147
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