Hornets -2 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Hornets win + under 237 parlay, 0.5 units to win 1.18 units
Hornets coach Steve Clifford sounded off in his press conference following Charlotte’s recent OT defeat at the hands of the Pistons, saying “NO ONE is playing defense right now, there’s not ONE bright spot.” Usually anticipating regression is really hard to do for any NBA team, but this is a great spot for the Hornets to practice better defense. The Hawks are a disparate mess right now and tonight is the last leg of their little road trip. Charlotte’s been at home and this is their final leg before they hit the road– ATL is more likely to give up, as we’ve seen from them, while the Hornets can snag a win and gain some confidence with LaMelo back before they leave the comforts of home. Charlotte saw an explosion of offense in their last contest, but I expect much better results from their defense tonight. Over their last 6 games, of which they only won 5, the Hawks are LAST in the NBA in offensive rating. Their most important components on defense: Collins, Murray, and now Capela will ALL be out today. Charlotte should be able to get ahead fast at home and if they play better defense, this shouldn’t even be close. This will be the Hawks 5th game in 7 days and it feels like Nate McMillan is losing his team. Go Hornets!
Kings 1Q -1.5 (-112 at FD), to win 1.5 units
Kings -5.5 (-105), to win 1 unit
The Sacramento Kings finally found their rhythm again in an impressive showing in Toronto two nights ago. I think they take that momentum into this game. The Pistons got a fortunate OT win against the Hawks but that had to tire out their most important players (Isaiah Stewart played 41 min, for example), but the Kings played Sabonis and Fox for 40 minutes in their recent game too, so maybe that’s not too much of an edge, but Detroit completely exhausted its bench, too. The Pistons are back home after a lot of road games the past week, which is never an ideal spot for a tired team, whereas the Kings will get off all weekend at home if they can come out the victor. And let’s face it, the Pistons are nowhere near the outfit that Sacramento is this year. The Kings have moved from one of the NBA’s worst defenses last year to a mid-tier unit and it’s been consistent. That’s huge, considering how explosive their offense can be. The Kings are too much for Detroit tonight, and I think they step up at the margins (1st QTR and end of game) as the better team and cover.
Magic 1H +7.5 (-102), to win 0.5 units
A low-level play but the Magic should be getting more respect right now. They can be really feisty and they’re playing cohesive basketball, while Boston will need to reintegrate Robert Williams III early in this contest, who’s returning for his first game back. I like Orlando to keep it competitive early.
Warriors TT under 107.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
It’s always tough betting against the Warriors high-octane offense but obviously it has a few wrinkles these days. The Warriors will be without Steph Curry for a few weeks and they could continue to be without Wiggins. He practiced yesterday but TBD if Kerr wants to throw him to the wolves tonight. Philly has been playing sensational defense and it’s been a point of emphasis for them to limit opponent’s fast-break opportunities. I love that it’s their focus heading into this week, because this is a game where Jordan Poole will push the pace and try to upend Philly’s slow pace, methodical style. I think Philly wins that battle. With Embiid back, their defense is even better and in their first game without Curry on the road, I think Golden State could look real clunky. Give me their under for a humble 1 unit.
Nets at Raptors under 226.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Nic Claxton over 19.5 PAR (-120), to win 1 unit
Let’s not overthink this. The Nets are quietly on an 8-2 tear right now and a lot of that is because of how they’re playing defense. Claxton, O’Neal and Ben Simmons have been really important in that regard. The Raptors just allowed a melee of scoring from Sacramento, especially in the 2nd half, and that recency bias/feeling will give Toronto more incentive to limit the Nets at home in a correction spot. Two slow paced teams, I have this at 219, and none of their only 3 games have come close to eclipsing 226. Under. Taking a Claxton prop because of his length and perennial importance to the team.
Lakers win 1H (-102), to win 1 unit
The Nuggets are coming off a huge Jokic performance and offensive showcase but the Lakers match up well against the joker and his supporting cast. The Lakers also keep covering, and it’ll be a pride-battle for AD to prove that he can hang with the Nuggets’ big man early. Jokic usually sits for the majority of the 2nd QTR and he might need to after the run they’ve been on. Like the Lake-show early at home.
