The AFC East – Finally this conference is starting to even up. The Dolphins signed a drafted a ton of players, the Bills made the playoffs last year, and the Jets had a great draft. Let’s not forget the elephant in the room with Tom Brady leaving the Patriots for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This conference plays the AFC West and the NFC West which in my opinion is pretty hard. Lots of travel is involved here and these teams will have to make some adjustments.
- New England Patriots – Vegas Win Total 9 juiced to the under -130
Schedule – Hard – At large games vs Houston and Baltimore
Key losses: QB Tom Brady, ILB Kyle Van Noy, OLB Jaimie Collins, DT Danny Shelton, C Ted Karras, WR Phillip Dorsett, FB James Devlin
Key additions: WR Sefan Diggs, DL Beau Allen, FS Adrian Phillips, WR Marquise Lee, QB Brian Hoyer the team destroyer
Whom they drafted: S Kyle Dugger, Edge Josh Unche, Edge Anfernee Jennings and a whole lot of Patriot type nobodies
Summary: Unless you have been living under a rock, Tom Brady is now gone and so is a bunch of other dudes. I remember when Tom Brady tore his ACL and was out for the season and Belichick somehow still lined up 9 wins and made the playoffs. Well that was very impressive to me but it was also part of the fact that the division has always been bad. This division is better this year and the Patriots have a very hard schedule. Towards the end of the season, I imagine they will stay on the West coast after they play the Chargers and then go to the Rams that Thursday night. The Patriots will then go into their bye week and have to go to Miami after. I do not like this schedule one bit without a leader like Tom Brady. I think that there is a better chance that this team gets 0-6 wins rather than over 9 wins. Take the under.
Summary: Under 9 wins
2. Buffalo Bills – Vegas Win Total 9 juiced to the over -140
Schedule – Easy – At large vs Tennessee and Pittsburgh
Key losses: DE Jordan Phillips, DE Shaq Lawson, CB Kevin Johnson
Key additions: DE Mario Addison, OLB AJ Klein, DT Vernon Butler, DT Quinten Jefferson, CB Josh Norman
Whom they drafted: Edge AJ Epenesa, RB Zach Moss, QB Jake Fromm
Summary: I don’t love who the Bills lost in Shaq Lawson and Jordan Phillips. These guys were the leaders in sacks on this team and losing both will hurt. I know they drafted A.J. Epenesa and picked up Mario Addison who should fill that void but I expect some regression there. The rest of the team looks very solid to me and they had a nice Pythagorean win total of 9.8. I had to give them a half win due to them benching guys their last game vs the Jets last year bringing last years wins to 10.5. This is the team who should win the division and I think Josh Norman should have some gas left in his tank to help big against the pass. What can I say. I have them at about 9 wins with some upside and they win the division. I took this at +175 back in April but I think there is value at any + money.
Action – Lean Over
3. New York Jets – Vegas Win Total – 7 juiced to the under -130
Schedule – Hard – At large games vs Indianapolis and Cleveland
Key losses: WR Robbie Anderson, T Brandon Shell, G Tom Compton, CB Daryle Roberts, WR Demaryius Thomas
Key additions: T George Fant, C Conner Mcgovern, G Greg Van Roten, WR Breshard Perriman, CB Pierre Desir
Whom they drafted: T Mekhi Becton, WR Denzel Mims, S Ashtyn Davis, Edge Jabari Zuniga
Summary: Do you think the Jets care about protecting there quarterback this year? I sure his heck do. They went nuts on their offensive line in free agency and drafted the most athletic Tackle in the draft in Mekhi Becton. I also think that they stole the best Wide Receiver in the draft in Denzel Mims. I had to punish this team a half game for the easy Bills game at the end of the year, but the toughest thing for me is that their hard schedule with at large games against Indianapolis and Cleveland don’t look deserving of a 3rd place divisional team. I think that this is the year that Adam Gase and Sam Darnold have to put something together. The Jets and not the Patriots should be the team this year that pushes the Bills. They need at least 8 wins and maybe they can pick a few up from the Patriots. In saying that, My calculation has them at 7.4 so no play for me.
Action – Lean over
4. Miami Dolphins – Vegas Win Total 6.5
Schedule – Medium– At large vs Jacksonville and Cincinnati
Key losses: Absolutely nobody
Key additions: CB Byron Jones, OLB Kyle Van Noy, DE Shaq Lawson, G Ereck Flowers, DE Emmanual Ogbah, RB Jordan Howard, C Ted Karras
Whom they drafted: QB Tua Tagovailoa, T Austin Jackson, CB Noah Igbinoghene, and a bunch of others
Summary: The Dolphins pretty much busted out the pocket book and spent a ton of money. They didn’t really lose anyone that makes a difference in free agency. I was actually surprised that this team won 5 games last year and ended their season on such a high note by beating the Patriots in Foxborough. The thing that we have to take into place is the Pythagorean wins at only 3.6. As you can see, this team certainly over-achieved last year. The outlook for the fish is volatile and can be good or bad if they can’t put it all together. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick does amazing things as a backup but for some reason when he is named the actually starter or QB 1, he looks like he has no business being in the NFL. There is also a lot of unknowns for me about coach Flores. It is his second year and I need him to prove his worth. I think that the Dolphins covered pretty much every position in free agency and in the draft except Wide Receiver. I have their wins at a generous 7.3 but it isn’t enough to get to a play for me.
Summary: Lean over 6.5
