The AFC East – Not only did this conference even up last year, it heated up between two very bad teams that are now looked at much differently in the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins. The Jets were the jets, and the Patriots really took a step back as predicted; although it took more time that I thought that it would being that the Pats had a nice start to the season. I think we are forever going to have the who’s better debate between Bill Belichick and Top Brady unless the Patriots literally turn into the Jets over the next few years. This division plays the AFC South which is good and the NFC South which is medium now that Breese is gone.
1. Buffalo Bills – Vegas Win Total 11
Power Rating: 5.75
Schedule – Medium Easy – At large vs Washington, @ Kansas City, vs Pittsburgh
Key losses: WR John Brown, DT Quinton Jefferson, and a bunch of smaller names
Key additions: WR Emmanual Sanders, QB Mitch Trubisky, and a bunch of smaller names.
Key Draft Picks: Edge Gregory Rousseau, Edge Carlos Basham JR, and a bunch of we shall see.
Summary: It was nice hitting that +175 on this team to win the division last year. The Bills achieved a nice 13 wins last year but some of that was definitely having the benefit of having a little bit of an easier of a schedule than some of the other good teams. The Bills had a lower Pythagorean adjusted win to 11.15 but they also dropped what I thought was a for sure victory in Arizona with the hail Murray. The good news for the Bills is that their schedule is once again very friendly and I can only say that their most likely losses are @ Kansas City, maybe @ Tennessee and @ Tampa Bay. This team should be beat Miami and the Patriots at least 3 of those 4 games with a sweep vs the Jets. Losing John Brown was quickly gained back and then some with Emmanuel Sanders. I like the Edge rushers that this team drafted. With 17 games, I feel comfortable taking over 11 here.
My Number: 12.48
Action – Play the Over 11 wins or shop it around
Miami Dolphins – Vegas Win Total 9 juiced to the over -130
Miami Dolphins Power rating: 1.25
Schedule – Easy – At large vs NY Giants, @ LV Raiders, vs Baltimore
Key losses: DT Davon Godchaux, ILB Kyle Van Noy, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, C Ted Karras
Key additions: WR Will Fuller, DT Adam Butler, QB Jacoby Brissett, CB Justin Coleman
Whom they drafted: WR Jaelin Waddle, Edge Jaelen Phillips, S Jevon Holland
Summary: It is such a shame that this team won 10 games last year and missed the playoffs. Offensive coordinator Chan Gailey is gone taking the brunt of the blame for a stagnant offense. After a nearly one-month search, the Miami Dolphins decided that Eric Studesville and George Godsey, who served under Gailey, are worthy run their offense together as co-offensive coordinators. I am not sure if this will work well, but I have always found it quite weird when the guy who was supposed to be backup quarterback ends up better than the guy that the team just drafted. It is also weird to release the better of the 2. How much of the blame for a bad offense was this the fault of Chan Gailey when Fitz was putting up some good numbers and Tua wasn’t? How does promoting the two guys under Gailey going to fix Tua? This is at least how it appeared last year with Tua Tagovailoa making some awful starts. He happened to win some of those vs teams like LA Rams, and at Arizona, but we all saw that it was the fantastic Dolphin defense making those touchdowns and huge plays with no credit to the offense. What I did see last year when they had Tua start a few games was Fitzmagic coming in off of the bench to clean up Tua’s messes. In saying that, we know that Tua is still young and has about two more years to try and prove himself. Drafting Jaelin Waddle this year certainly might help Tua out, although, I was more of a Devonta Smith guy myself. This team didn’t lose much and they have a great schedule this year. The Season win total at 9 juiced to the over tells me that the Market isn’t sure on Tua and/or the new offensive coordinators and I agree with it.
My Number: 9.77
Summary: Lean over 9
New England Patriots – Vegas Win Total 9.5 juiced to the under -130
New England Patriots Power Rating: 1
Schedule – Medium – At large games vs Dallas, @ LA Chargers and vs Cleveland
Key losses: G Joe Thuney, DT Adam Butler
Key additions: OLB Matt Judon, TE Jonnu Smith, TE Hunter Henry, S Jalen Mills, WR Nelson Agholor, DT Davon Godchaux, ILB Kyle Van Noy, C Ted Karras and a some others
Key Draft Picks: QB Mac Jones, DL Christian Barmore, EDGE Ronnie Perkins
Summary: Welp, you certainly can’t say that Robert Kraft didn’t break out the pocket book this year now can you? The Patriots were the most active team in free agency in the whole NFL. It is looking to me like they might start going back to more of a two tight end set now that Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry are there. I agree with the move but what I do not agree with is Cam Newton as a starting NFL quarterback. Cam has some issues running an offense that surpasses a college type dink and dunk type system, but my question is, can Mac Jones step right in here and make some serious noise? The Pats were the second most injured team due to Covid hold outs last year behind the 49ers. New England’s Pythagorean winning percentage matched their total wins almost to a tee but if you look at their total yards per game, they only ranked 26th in the league while their defense gave up the 14th most yards giving them a net deficiency of -26 yards per game. I think the Patriots will come into the season as an above average team and well with in reason that they could win 9 or 10 games.
My Number: 9.5 wins
Summary: No Play
New York Jets – Vegas Win Total – 6
New York Jets Power Rating: -7.25
Schedule – Medium – At large games vs Philadelphia, @ Denver, vs Cincinnati
Key losses: Coach Adam Gase, QB Sam Darnold, G Pat Eflein, DE Henry Anderson, OLB Jordan Jenkins, OLB Tarrell Basham, WR Breshard Perriman, QB Joe Flaccof
Key additions: Coach Robert Saleh, DE Carl Lawson, WR Corey Davis, DT Sheldon Rankings, CB Justin Hardey, G Dan Feeny, ILB Jarrad Davis, FS LeMarcus Joyner and a few more
Whom they drafted: QB Zach Wilson, OT Alijah Vera-Tucker, WR Elijah Moore, RB Michael Carter and a bunch more
Summary: So how did protecting the QB do for this team last year when they went trenches? Not good at all and Adam Gase had his worst season by far ending his coaching tenure. This year, defensive minded Robert Saleh takes over and brings over a familiar face in Mike Lafleur. Well, it is familiar because he looks like his brother Matt Lafleur who is head coach of Green Bay and currently having Arron Rogers type headaches. Anyways, I do like these moves and even though the Jets had the lowest Pythagorean winning percentage last year at 3.1 adjusted wins for 17 games, I can see some upside over the 2 wins that they had throughout the 2020 season. The Jet’s offense was horrible last year but also were the 4th most injured team according to football outsiders and their defense had some good pieces to it. I think this team will have some struggles in their first 6 games or so but they should start improving on offense as long as Zach Wilson isn’t a total bust. Zach is very athletic with a great arm but also very small for this league. I am concerned that his BYU football schedule was quite easy last year. I think Saleh will really improve this defense and I will look to play some unders from the start. Getting CJ Mosley back from his 2020 year off will be huge at middle linebacker. The Jets were maybe the most second active team in free agency and they filled a bunch of holes. I think if Zach turns out, that this team could get 6 or 7 wins.
My Number: 6.62
Action – Lean over
