The AFC East – Was a stronger division than it really looked last year. I feel like some bad luck really set in for some of these teams. The Bills were once again the power house that struggled to finish games, while not being able to produce a good game plan in the post season. The Jets had pretty much everything except a quarterback, the Dolphins lost their quarterback and had no backup, while the Patriots hired a bone-head for an offensive coordinator. I also do not think that three of these teams had good off-seasons, which you will see in my previews. The AFC East plays the NFC East and the AFC West this season. This is a rough schedule in my opinion, and the only thing that is nice is the lighter travel. Both the NFC East and the AFC East have high floors and high ceilings. Let’s take a closer look.
Divisional Odds: Bills +120 – Jets +270 – Dolphins +300 – Patriots +800
1. Buffalo Bills –
Vegas win total: 10.5 juiced to the over -120
2022 Wins: 13.5
Pythagorean Wins: 12.93
Schedule: Hard – at large vs Jacksonville, vs Tampa, @ Cincinnati
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: ILB Tremaine Edmunds, QB Case Keenum, RB Devin Singletary, G Roger Saffold
Key additions: G Conner McGovern, WR Deonte Harty, OLB Leonard Floyd, DE Poona Ford, S Taylor Rapp, G David Edwards, QB Kyle Allen.
Key Draft Picks: TE Dalton Kincaid, G O’Cyrus Torrence, LB Dorian Williams
Summary: The Bills once again missed their window of opportunity last year in the playoffs during a snowy day against the Bengals in Buffalo. Now one would think that snow should actually help a northern team like the Buffalo Bills, but the sharper people last season knew that it was actually advantage Cincinnati. This is a problem. The Bills are more of a passing offense that utilizes Josh Allen’s scrambling abilities to his best, while running the ball more sparingly to keep defenses honest. They did not have a big back to break through some of the larger defensive fronts in the AFC. They also just let their top running back Devon Singletary go to Houston. This type of focus away from the run game does not bode well for bad weather teams. Now the Bills drafted Dalton Kincaid to play a hybrid tight end/slot position in this offense. As you can see, they really care about finesse. I really do not like the downgrade last year at offensive coordinator from Brian Dabol to Ken Dorsey. I also feel that the Bills took a step back on defense, more specifically with their pass rush only ranking in the middle of the pack in pressure rate and sacks. The most glaring loss on defense was their best linebacker in Tremaine Edmunds to the Bears. Now maybe Tulane draft pick Dorian Williams becomes a super-star, but Edmonds was one of the best linebackers in the league, and his leadership may be missed here. Finally, the Bills have to deal with an improved division along with a first place schedule. If Josh Allen gets hurt in any way, I do not believe that Kyle Allen is an adequate backup to run this heavy pass offense with quarterback designed runs. I also think that Diggs, while a special talent, is starting to creep up in age along with Vonn Miller and AJ Klein.
My Number: 10.22
Action – Lean Under
Power Rating: 4.75
2. New York Jets –
Vegas win total: 9.5 juiced to the over -130
Pythagorean Wins: 7
2022 Wins: 8.31
Schedule: Medium – vs Atlanta, vs Houston, @ Cleveland
Schedule Last Year: Hard
Key losses: DE Nathan Shepard, DT Sheldon Rankings, G Nate Herbig, QB Mike White, RB James Robinson, G Dan Feeney, RT George Fant, LB Kwon Alexander
Key additions: QB Aaron Rogers, OC Nathanial Hackett, WR Allen Lazard, G Wes Schweitzer, WR Mecole Hardman, DT Quinton Jefferson, WR Randall Cobb, DT Al Woods, RB Breece Hall is back from injury.
Whom they drafted: Edge Will McDonald, C Joe Tippmann, T Carter Warren, RB Israel Abanikanda
Summary: There is a new sheriff in town. Broadway Joe even offered him his jersey number to continue at number 12! Of course Rogers declined, but let’s hope that for Jets fans, this becomes the best move in the NFL for the 2023 season. Looking at the numbers from last year, the Jets were a much better team than their record showed. NY under-achieved by 1.31 wins from their Pythagorean win total. hey ranked number six in defensive EPA while they had a good running game before Breece Hall got hurt for the season. It doesn’t take football coach to know that this team was greatly missing a quarterback. As much as I disliked Aaron Rogers as a Bears fan, one has to admit that this team made a move to attempt to win a championship and Rogers still has something still left in the tank. I honestly think that he was burned out in Green Bay due to front office issues over the past three seasons or so. Has Rogers faltered in the playoffs? Yes, and he certainly has some Lebron James in him, but maybe this year is the one where he can prove the doubters wrong. This offseason, the Jets did have to shed some guys but not nearly as much as other teams with less rookie deals. The Jets will have a new offense with Nathaniel Hackett coming in as offensive coordinator. My only concern is that he wasn’t a good play caller in Denver, but maybe with Rogers, there will be more comfort in this very important aspect to running the offense. This is why we see many guys come in from Green Bay. I hate to side with the public narrative on this one, but I could see the Jets winning this division more than the Buffalo Bills. This team has a massive +12 net games of rest ranking number 1 in the league.
My Number: 10.66
Action –Jets to win division +270
New York Jets Power Rating: 3.25
3. Miami Dolphins –
Vegas win total: 9.5 juiced to the under -120
Pythagorean Wins: 8.82
2022 Wins: 9
Schedule: Hard – vs Carolina, vs Tennessee, @ Baltimore
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: OLB Elandon Roberts, TE Mike Gesicki, CB Byron Jones, QB Teddy Bridgewater, OLB Melvin Engram, LT Eric Fisher
Key additions: LB David Long, QB Mike White, WR Braxton Berrios, G Dan Geeney, T Isaiah Wynn, S Deshon Elliot and a bunch of lower level dudes.
Whom they drafted: CB Cam Smith from South Carolina and that is really about it.
Summary: The Miami Dolphins at nine wins last year unfortunately under-achieved due to the injury woes of QB Tua Tagovailoa. This poor quarterback suffered a bunch of concussions and I felt that he was just one away from retirement. Think about what I said right there. Now that the Miami Dolphins got their back up in….. Wait….. Mike White? So you are telling me that you spent all of that money on players just to have Mike White and Skyler Thompson as backup plans? This Miami team has really dropped the ball here. They were not active in the draft at all being that they had only few picks to play with, but I thought that there were a couple of quarterbacks out there like Jake Haener and even Stetson Bennet that could have filled the void if/when poor Tua suffers his next concussion. I am absolutely blown away that this team has ignored such an important factor when they have so much talent to compete in the AFC South. The defensive side wasn’t pretty last year when the blitz didn’t work out. They finished the year ranking 22nd in defensive EPA per play. Seventh in opponent rush EPA was good, but 26th in opponent pass EPA won’t help vs a much improved AFC East. The Dolphins picked up a ton of guys in free agency, but most of them are second rate and something you do not see much of on championship teams. The schedule is going from easy to hard this year. I have to go under the Dolphins win total and assume that Tua will not be healthy for the full 2023 NFL Season.
My Number: 8.41
Summary: Under 9.5 – 1 star
Miami Dolphins Power rating: 2.75
4. New England Patriots –
Vegas win total: 7.5 juiced to the under -125
2022 Wins: 8
Pythagorean Wins: 8.59
Schedule: Hard – vs New Orleans, vs Indianapolis, @ Pittsburgh
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: WR Jacoby Meyers, QB Brian Hoyer, WR Nelson Agholor, T Isaiah Wynn, RB Damien Harris, TE Jonnu Smith, S Devin McCourty
Key additions: OC Bill O’Brien, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, T Alvin Anderson, LB Chris Board, T Riley Reiff, TE Mike Gesicki and a bunch of dudes
Key Draft Picks: CB Christian Gonzales, Edge Keion White, S Marte Mapu, C Jake Andrews and a bunch of Patriot type hopes.
Summary: The Patriots were once thought of as the smartest team in football until they let former coach Matt Patricia, who was known for defense, attempt to run the offense for 2022. I mean, I can’t even fathom a worse decision coming from this organization. There also was a very early quarterback controversy with Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe that they failed to address which really hurt the confidence of their young Alabama quarterback. Just watching Jones on the sidelines yell at Patricia all game long made for some amazing drama. Now the big question is, did the patriots really change all that much from last year? Not really. Lots of robbing Peter to pay Paul happened in the offseason in free agency . This offense last year ranked 24th in EPA per play with a defense that ranked 3rd. Now this was on an easy schedule. The Patriots were average at best. Now that the Patriots have themselves slotted the HARDEST schedule in the league from a Vegas win total perspective, I just cannot imagine that new offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien will be making a big splash having to play the NFC East and the AFC West. My number is 7.3 wins, so I agree with the market here.
My Number: 7.3 wins
Summary: No Play
New England Patriots Power Rating: 0
*Blue means not signed or picked up by an NFL team
