The AFC East – Was supposed to be one of the strongest divisions in 2023, but what it turned out as was the most injured division in football. At least when it comes to key injuries. Only four plays into the season for the Jets, newly acquired quarterback Aaron Rogers tore his Achilles and was ruled out for the season. The Bills lost a bunch of defensive line and linebackers, while the Dolphins lost their best two defenders in edge rushers Jaelan Phillips and Bradly Chubb. The Patriots lost their best defender in Matthew Judon, but let’s face it, they really didn’t have much going into the season anyways. The AFC East plays the AFC South and the NFC West this year. I would call that pretty medium as their are not many bad teams on the schedule. Let’s see if this division can live up to the hype from early 2023.
Divisional Odds: Bills +170 – Jets +190 – Dolphins +200 – Patriots +2500
1. Buffalo Bills –
Vegas win total: 10.5 juiced to the over -130
2023 Wins: 11
Pythagorean Wins: 12.06
Schedule: Medium Hard – at large @ Baltimore, vs Kansas City, @ Detroit
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: OC Ken Dorsey, WR Stephon Diggs, WR Gabe Davis, OLB Leonard Floyd, C Mitch Morse, CB Dane Jackson, DT Tim Settle, LB Tyrei Dodson, CB Tre’Davious White, FS Jordan Poyer, DE Jordan Phillips, SS Micah Hyde, ILB Tyler Matakevich
Key additions: OC Joe Brady, WR Curtis Samuel, QB Mitch Trubisky, DT Austin Johnson, S Mike Edwards, DE Dawuane Smoot, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, RT La’El Collins
Key Draft Picks: WR Keon Coleman, S Cole Bishop, DL DeWayne Carter, RB Ray Davis, C Sedrick Van Pran and a bunch of hope.
Summary: Remember when Damar Hamlin was the biggest story in the league last year? I am not sure how someone that comes back from death doesn’t get comeback player of the year, but hey, that’s the New York media for you. Anyways, the Bills went through some rough patches last year. If you remember me saying that they should have drafted a linebacker rather than a tight end, you may have said that I was lucky to get that right. Well, I like Dalton Kinkaid and all, but I still think that this team really hurt themselves ranking 24th in opponent rush EPA due to the injuries to Matt Milano and Terrell Bernard. I also thought Dawson Knox was fine at tight end and didn’t need another star at that ignored position. Head coach Sean McDermott took on defensive coordinator duties after Leslie Frazier’s departure, and that turned out to not be the greatest idea. For 2024 the Bills promote Bobby Babich as the new DC so let’s see if he can get this defense back to being a power-house. Let’s face it, this Bills team was basically run through Josh Allen’s amazing dual threat quarterback abilities. I attest the run to the playoffs due to his skills. Is this sustainable or even repeatable? I am not so sure. The Bills once again had to shed a ton of talent last year and were not able to spend a bunch of money to get some back. It is all up to how the draft turns out for this Bills team. The biggest loss in the offseason is probably Leonard Floyd, but everyone is talking about the Stephon Diggs trade. Diggs was a cancer in the locker room and no wide receiver is worth the headaches. So why then pick up Chase Claypool? He himself has proven to be a loud mouth without the numbers to back it up. The pass catching core needs to step it up for 2024. I think the Bills could miss the playoffs next year, and I am very worried that Josh Allen runs out of gas at some point. My power rating on the Bills will start at 4 points better than the average team which is a big downgrade from 6.5 to end the season last year.
My Number: 10.53
Action – No Play
Power Rating: 4
2. New York Jets –
Vegas win total: 9.5 juiced to the over -150
2023 Wins: 7
Pythagorean Wins: 6.15
Schedule: Easy – at large vs Denver, vs Minnesota (neutral game), @ Pittsburgh
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: OLB Bryce Huff, S Jordan Whitehead, DT Quinton Jefferson, T Mekhi Becton, CB Justin Hardy, CB Bryce Hall, DE Carl Lawson, T Duane Brown
Key additions: QB Tyrod Taylor, G John Simpson, WR Mike Williams, DT Javon Kinlow, T Tyron Smith.
Whom they drafted: T Olumuyiwa Fashanu, WR Malachi Corley, RB Braelon Allen, QB Jordan Travis.
Summary: The elephant in the room for this team is Aaron Rogers and all of the attention that he requires. Even when injured, he had to be in the spot light in 2023. The big question is, how much better would this Jets team had been if he played 15 games? I mean, it’s not like Rogers had a great last year with the Packers. Coach Robert Saleh has to manage his team this year and I do not think that he appreciates Rogers antics. In saying that, this team is fully loaded with talent and I do like their draft. The Jets lost a few big names on defense to free agency, but these guys were getting old and they also should be replaceable. The Jets ranked 3rd in defensive EPA and dead last on offense. This year, they have the schedule to compete, and if Rogers could just be average, this team should easily make the playoffs. I like the Jets this year to win the division, but I also could see this team still being defensive oriented. No play on the season win total. Take the division odds as I see Buffalo and Miami having it rough this year.
My Number: 9.58
Action –Jets to win division +240 – 1 star
New York Jets Power Rating: 2
3. Miami Dolphins –
Vegas win total: 9.5 juiced to the over -135
Pythagorean Wins: 10.93
2023 Wins: 11
Schedule: Medium – At large vs Las Vegas, @ Green Bay, @ Cleveland
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: DC Vic Fangio, DT Christian Wilkins, G Robert Hunt, OLB Andrew Van Ginkle, S Brandon Jones, DT Raekwon Davis, OLB Jerome Baker, S Deshon Elliot, WR Cedrick Wilson, CB Xavien Howard, DE Emmanuel Ogbah, C Conner Williams, CB Eli Apple
Key additions: DC Anthony Weaver, LB Jordyn Brooks, C Aaron Brewer, CB Kendall Fuller, TE Jonnu Smith, OLB Shaq Barrett, WR Odell Beckham
Whom they drafted: Edge Chop Robinson, T Patrick Paul and a bunch of hope.
Summary: The Miami Dolphins were looking great up to week 16 when they beat Dallas at home 22-20, just to completely fall apart shorty after. Injuries played somewhat of a roll while the offense had gotten away from what made them great. Run the football! Anyways, we all know that this team had to shed some guys and will have to pay Tua Tagovailoa some series cash. They missed the window and things are getting expensive. Let’s not forget that Tyreke Hill has over nine kids to feed along with some baby-mommas. The schedule looks easy on paper, yet going to Cleveland and Green Bay will be tricky. The Dolphins had a great offense ranking 3rd in drop back EPA and 5th in Rush EPA. The defense however took a step back ranking 15th in overall EPA, but we must not forget that they lost some of their best players to injury. Now the mammals of the sea get rid of their best defensive coach in Vic Fangio for another unproven Baltimore Raven in Anthony Weaver. I am quite concerned for the losses of some key guys like Christian Wilkins, Brandon Jones, and edge rusher Andrew Van Ginkle. The draft wasn’t plentiful as they didn’t have much for high draft picks. In saying all of that, this team won 11 games with their Pythagorean win total all the way up to 10.93. The schedule this year is very manageable without any world travel, but the Dolphins will have a -8 day net rest disadvantage over the season. I see a very strong offense but a below average defense for 2024. The Dolphins should cover as a good size favorite yet maybe falter as a dog.
My Number: 9.97
Action – None
Miami Dolphins Power rating: 2.25
4. New England Patriots –
Vegas win total: 4.5 juiced to the under -160
2023 Wins: 4
Pythagorean Wins: 5.12
Schedule: Hard – at large @ Cincinnati, @ Chicago, vs LA Chargers
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: Coach Bill Belichick, LB Mack Wilson, RT Trenton Brown, TE Pharaoh Brown, TE Mike Gesicki, RB Ezekiel Elliot, CB Miles Bryant, CB Jalen Mills, CB JC Jackson, S Adrian Phillips, DT Lawrence Guy.
Key additions: Coach Jerad Mayo, OC Alex Van Pelt, QB Jacoby Brissett, RB Antonio Gibson, LB Sione Takitaki, WR KJ Osborne, T Chukwuma Okafor, TE Austin Hooper, DT Armon Watts, G Nick Leverett
Key Draft Picks: QB Drake Maye, WR Ja’Lynn Polk, T Caedan Wallace, G Layden Robinson
Summary: This Patriots team was once again quite pathetic in 2023. The long time marriage between Robert Kraft and Bill Belichick has finally divorced and it doesn’t look pretty. Jerod Mayo takes over as a defensive minded coach and former player. His OC will be Alex Van Pelt who served the same role on the Browns. Last year, the Pats went from dumb to stupid by going from Matt Patricia to bringing in Bill O’Brien as their offensive coordinator which helped them rank 31st in offensive EPA. The strength was the defense ranking 8th in EPA, but I am not even sure that is the real number. Last year, Pats opponents were running clock to win the game making the Patriots defense look better than they actually were. Injuries to Matthew Judon of course didn’t help, but if this team can’t move the ball for 2024, it isn’t going to matter. The Patriots draft looked more like a poor man’s Chicago Bears draft as they got the 3rd best quarterback and the 2nd best wide receiver from the Huskies. Picking up Jacoby Brissett is a good fit with a new coach, but he may be asked to win games with second rate skill position guys. This is asking too much for this team on a rebuild. I think Drake Maye comes in after six or seven games to try and be the player they felt he was in the draft. The 2024 schedule is flat out brutal with some rough at large games. The only good thing I see is that the Patriots rank second highest in net rest at +12. Otherwise, expect a rough season.
My Number: 3.56 wins
Summary: Lean under
New England Patriots Power Rating: -6.5
*Blue means not signed or picked up by an NFL team
Best Bet: Jets to win division +240 – 1 star
