The AFC East – When are we just going to stop betting the Jets? I am going to say now doggone it. Now! The AFC East was terrible last season minus Josh Allen. Miami once again injured themselves, and had no offense for some reason, while the Jets were an offensive & defensive mess. The Patriots were slated to be the worst team in football, yet showed some life towards the end of the season. For 2025, the AFC East plays the NFC South, and the AFC North which I would call a pretty easy draw. It gets even easier when a team is up top being that they get to play the lower tiered teams in this division. Let’s see how it all pans out.
Best bet: Bills over 11.5 -145 – 1 star (FD)
Divisional Odds: Bills -260 – Patriots +475 – Dolphins +650 – Jets +1800
1. Buffalo Bills –
Vegas win total: 11.5 juiced to the over -170
2024 Wins: 13
Pythagorean Wins: 12.15
Schedule: Easy – at large vs Kansas City, @ Houston, vs Philadelphia
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: WR Mack Hollins, Edge Von Miller, WR Amari Cooper, CB Rasul Douglas, DT Austin Johnson.
Key additions: WR Josh Palmer, OLB Michael Hoecht, Edge Joey Bosa, DE Larry Ogunjobi, CB Tre’Davious White, WR Elijah Moore, CB Dane Jackson.
Key Draft Picks: CB Maxwell Hairston, DL TJ Sanders, Edge Landon Jackson, and a bunch of dudes.
Summary: Once again, Damar Hamlin got cheated from comeback player of the year less than two years after he cheated death. He actually played for real this year to. I’m not bitter about that at all. Anyways, the Bills last year were three zebras away from making the super bowl. Getting over the hump has to be the goal, and playing close games haven’t turned out all that well for this team. What I will say, is that this is the year, Buffalo has the easiest shot of securing the number one overall seed in the AFC. This schedule is disgustingly easy for a team of this caliber. The Bills did not lose much to free agency. Von Miller was washed, and Amari Cooper was just borrowed due to injuries. I really like what this team did in free agency. Joshua Palmer is an under-rated wide receiver, while Elijah Moore can stretch the field. James Cook is back and he will lead the way at running back as soon as his hold out ends. My biggest concerns remain at health. Josh Allen has to try and win with his arm more against an easy schedule, while Joey Bosa has to finally stay on the field for a full season. Or at least for the playoffs. I like their draft in Maxwell Hairston and cornerback and how this team beefed up that defensive line. Back to the schedule, this Bills team gets their hardest opponents in the Chiefs, the Eagles, and the Ravens all at home. The sky is the limit for Buffalo and this is the year that they do it. I pick this team to win the super bowl, but so does many.
My Number: 15.08
Action – Over 11.5 -145 – 1 star (FD) – To be the number 1 seed +275 – .5 stars (FD) Bills to win Super Bowl +750 – .5 stars (FD)
Power Rating: 6.75
2. Miami Dolphins –
Vegas win total: 8.5 juiced to the under -160
2024 Wins: 8
Pythagorean Wins: 7.95
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large @ Indianapolis, vs LA Chargers, vs Washington (in Madrid Spain),
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: S Jevon Holland, DE Calais Campbell, G Robert Jones, DE Emmanuel Ogbah, TE Durham Smythe, DE DaShawn Hand, S Siran Neal, RB Raheem Mostert, CB Kendall Fuller, RB Jeff Wilson.
Key additions: G/C James Daniels, ILB Tyrel Dodson, QB Zach Wilson, WR Nick Westbrook, CB Ifeatu Melifonwu, S Ashtyn Davis, T Larry Borom.
Whom they drafted: DL Kenneth Grant, OL Jonah Savalinaea, DL Jordan Phillips, CB Jason Marshall, QB Quinn Ewers.
Summary: The Miami Dolphins were stuck in mediocre land with a defense that somehow ranked 8th in opponent EPA, while the offense was the problem ranking 22nd. With an offensive coach like Mike McDaniel, this should be unacceptable. What’s even more unacceptable is what we have been saying for the last few years. Tua at the quarterback position is a walking timebomb. He is one concussion away from missing multiple weeks if not more. What is the Dolphins contingency plan? Zach Wilson. Well, I think that it will be Zach Wilson. Maybe Quinn Ewers upon chance steps in and rips it up like Brock Purdy did for the 49ers, but I wouldn’t exactly want to bet on that. The Dolphins lost a few running backs to free agency. I do like how they drafted some good defensive line, but there really isn’t anything exciting minus a mouthy Tyreke Hill, and a cornerback Jalen Ramsey who wants to be traded. I do not know how anyone could trust this team to get back to what they were a few years back. One thing that is good for the Dolphins, is that their schedule ranks 2nd in +11 net days rest. They do not get any team off of a bye week. All in all, I expect complete mediocrity. They will upset a few teams. Maybe even the Bills, but they will also lose some games that they shouldn’t.
My Number: 8.58 wins
Action – Lean over
Miami Dolphins Power rating: 1
3. New England Patriots –
Vegas win total: 8.5 juiced to the over -120
2024 Wins: 4
Pythagorean Wins: 4.95
Schedule: Easy – at large vs Las Vegas, @ Tennessee, vs NY Giants
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: Coach Jerad Mayo, QB Jacoby Brissett, CB mJonathan Jones, DE Deatrich Wise, ILB Ja’whaun Bently, C David Andrews.
Key additions: Coach Mike Vrable, DT Milton Williams, WR Stefon Diggs, CB Carlton Davis, Edge Harold Landry, LB Robert Spillane, T Morgan Moses, C Garrett Bradbury, WR Mack Hollins, QB Joshua Dobbs, OLB K”Lavon Chaisson, DT Khyris Tonga, S Marcus Epps, S Jaylinn Hawkins.
Key Draft Picks: T Will Campbell, RB TreVeyon Henderson, WR Kyle Williams, C Jared Wilson.
Summary: The Patriots are the most hyped team in the NFL right now. Watching their season win total go up from 4 to 8.5 is really something. Let’s start with the coach. It looks like Jerad Mayo was only a placeholder for coach Mike Vrable. I honestly like Mike Vrable, and have to give the Patriots a pretty big upgrade. I also like how this team had the most money to spend in the offseason and spend they certainly did. It is also liking like quarterback Drake May will turn into the franchise guy that they all had hoped. This team upgraded at almost every position, and they had a pretty solid draft for 2025. Now for the bad. I do not like the pass catchers on this team. Stefon Diggs is going to party himself off of the boat. I don’t think that news story with the drugs in a bag was a good look for him. The other two receivers in Kyle Williams and DeMario Douglas are very below average. Tight end Hunter Henry is past his prime, while backup Austin Hooper has been on a slide. I expect a great defense under new coach Mike Vrable, but I also expect this offense to struggle. We have to remember that last season, the Patriots schedule was ranked quite easy. The team did well towards the end of last year, but will that momentum continue? I have to go against the market on this one. The market putting out 8.5 wins is too much to ask. Seven wins will still be a successful season for this team. I will say though that this team will probably get better as the year goes on.
My Number: 7.45 wins
Summary: Under 8.5 for 1 star
New England Patriots Power Rating: -3.5
4. New York Jets –
Vegas win total: 5.5 juiced to the over -160
2024 Wins: 5
Pythagorean Wins: 6.66
Schedule: Medium – at large vs Dallas, vs Denver (in London), @ Jacksonville
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: Coach Robert Saleh, WR Davante Adams, CB DJ Reed, DT Javon Kinlaw, Edge Hasson Reddick, QB Aaron Rogers, T Morgan Moses, TE Tyler Conklin, DE Solomon Thomas, CB Brandin Echols, S Ashtyn Davis, G Wes Schweitzer, LB CJ Mosely, LT Tyron Smith.
Key additions: Coach Aaron Glenn, QB Justin Fields, CB Brandon Stephens, S Andre Cisco, WR Josh Reynolds, C Josh Myers, CB Kris Boyd.
Whom they drafted: T Armand Membou, TE Mason Taylor, WR Arian Smith, CB Azareye’h Thomas.
Summary: From Aaron Rogers to Justin Fields. What could go wrong? I can tell you what won’t go wrong is that I will not be betting on them again to win the division. I also will enjoy the laughter that I will have watching the Steelers face the Jets on week 1. Let’s start with the coach. Going from Robert Saleh to Aaron Glenn isn’t exactly my idea of an upgrade. Glenn was fine on the Lions as a DC, especially with all of their injuries, but I do not see him as some great coaching prospect. Going from Rogers to Justin Fields is like trading in your 10 year old corvette for a slightly used Subaru. Justin Fields is just a hybrid quarterback who can run the ball very well. I still haven’t seen him throw his way out of tough situations as he tends to lose confidence in the clutch. When teams bait him into bad situations, he turns the ball over, if not just taking a bad sack. I wish that I could say that the Jets lived on their defense last year, but that unit only ranked 21st in defensive EPA, and when the Jets played any team with a pulse, they got destroyed. New York also lost a ton of talent from the defensive side of the ball. Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner are really the only big names left. This feels a lot like the Giants defense from last year. The 2025 draft wasn’t exactly sexy. I like their tackle, but no proof that Armand Membou will develop. The Jets lost much more than they have gained. The schedule shapes up ok for the Jets and they did underachieve last year with a Pythagorean win total of 6.66, but with all of the change, that number cannot really be trusted. This team might have the worst results for 2025.
My Number: 4.33
Action – Lean under
New York Jets Power Rating: -6
*Blue means not signed or picked up by an NFL team
