The AFC North certainly became a great division last year with 3 teams making the playoffs. The Steelers were hot for a while until they caught the injury bug. The Browns have bought a ton of talent while the Ravens are still very powerful. The Bengals are the team that needs to step up this year, but I don’t know if that will happen just yet. This division has to face the NFC North and the AFC West. This schedule isn’t exactly easy and the at large games will make the biggest. No major coaching changes throughout the offseason.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers – Vegas Win total – 8.5
Pittsburgh Steelers Power Rating: 2.75
Schedule – Hard – At Large games vs Tennessee, @ Buffalo, vs Seattle
Key losses: OLB Bud Dupree, RB James Conner, CB Mike Hilton, RT Matt Feiler, LT Allejandro Villenueva
Key additions: T Joe Haeg, FS Miles Killebrew
Key Draft Picks: RB Najee Harris, TE Pat Freiermuth and a bunch of Meh
Summary: This Steelers team has a very weird year in 2020. They had an extremely easy schedule for the first 11 games or so and then the schedule had gotten much harder for their last 5 games. The Steelers lost a bunch on defense and even more on offensive line. I do not like what this team did in free agency to mitigate that attrition. In staying that, the expectations of this team are pretty low for a supposed very good team returning their quarterback in Big Ben as well as their coach Mike Tomlin. I love the Najee Harris draft pick but I am worried for the blocking. If the Steelers can hold it together in the trenches, they could be the actual sleeper team in the AFC North at +400 to win the division.
My Number: 8.8
Action – No Play but lean +400 to win division
2. Baltimore Ravens – Vegas Win Total – 10.5 juiced to the over
Baltimore Raven’s power rating: 5
Schedule – Medium Hard – At Large games vs Indianapolis, @ Miami, LA Rams
Key losses: OLB Matt Judon, DE Yannick Ngakoue, RB Mark Ingram, DE Jihan Ward, C Matt Skura, G DJ Fluker, LT Orlando Brown
Key additions: G Kevin Zietler, LT Alejandro Villanueva, WR Sammy Watkins
Key Draft Picks: WR Rashod Bateman, EDGE Odafe Oweh, G Ben Cleveland
Summary: Once again this Ravens team made their way into the playoffs with aggressive defense and smart play calling. John Harbaugh is the heart and soul of this team and whenever we decide to doubt him, he always seems to prove us wrong. In saying that, I really do not like the moves that this team made. They sacrificed their offensive line for more play makers at the skill positions, but what good does that do for a one read and run guy like Lamar Jackson? I am not sure that I agree with skimping on their offensive line and I also think that the book is really out on how to beat Lamar Jackson. Do not over-pursue and make him be a pocket passer to the sidelines. Many teams are still too incompetent to figure this out. Baltimore had a medium hard schedule last year and will have a hard schedule this year. Their Pythagorean wins were at about 12 wins last year and I think that they could achieve that this year.
My Number: 12.04 wins.
Action – Strong lean to the over but it is hard to trust this new offensive line in a strong division.
3. Cleveland Browns – Vegas win total 10.5 juiced to the under
Cleveland Browns Power Rating: 2.75
Schedule: Easy – At large games vs Houston, @ New England, Arizona
Key losses: RT Kendell Lamm, CB Terrance Mitchell, DT Larry Ogunjobi, CB Tavierre Thomas, DT Sheldon Richardson
Key additions: CB Troy Hill, DE Jadaveon Clowney, DE Takkarist McKinley, DT Malik Jackson, ILB Anthony Walker
Key Draft Picks: CB Greg Newsome, LB Jeremiah Orusu-Koramoha, WR Anthony Schwartz,
Summary: The Browns finished with a nice 11 win record in a difficult AFC north division but their Pythagorean total was only 8.06 adjusted. This team overachieved. This team is coming into this 2021 season with a very fortunate schedule. Houston should not be a problem, the Patriots are not the same Patriots that we grew up with, and Arizona has their defensive issues. One thing for certain is that Baker Mayfield has to take one more step forward for this team to be elite. The amount of Talent on this Browns team only rivals the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and it is time to put up or shut up I have 11.36 wins as my number but I am going to wait on it to decide what to do later. Really hard for me to take an over when their expected wins from 2021 were so low.
My Number: 11.36 Lean over
Action: Strong Lean over and they have the easiest road to win this division.
4. Cincinnati Bengals – Vegas win total 6.5 juiced to the under
Cincinnati Bengals Power Rating: -7
Schedule – Hard – At large vs Jacksonville, @ NY Jets, San Francisco
Key losses: DE Carl Lawson, CB William Jackson, WR AJ Green
Key additions: DE Trey Hendrickson, CB Mike Hilton, CB Chidobe Awuzie, LT Riley Reiff, DT Larry Ogunjobi
Key Draft Picks: WR Jamar Chase, OT Jackson Carmin, EDGE Joseph Ossai, C Trey Hill
Summary: This Bengals team had a huge opportunity to draft Penei Sewell but instead to get a wide receiver that Joe Burrow was very familiar with. What does that mean? Well, this is the NFL and the windows are a lot tighter than Joe saw in the weak SEC defenses of 2019. In saying that, this team at least grabbed Clemson Tackle Jackson Carmin in the second round. The issue that I have with that is that the big knock against Clemson last year was their offensive line, and I am not sure that this was a great pick. One thing is for sure is that teams with great defensive lines like the Ravens are going to smash this team in the trenches and I am concerned that Joe Burrow will be working overtime once again. If I am wrong and this offensive line does improve, the Bengals still left themselves with a pretty weak defense. Lean under
My Number: 5.39
Action: Strong lean to the under and I might play it
