The AFC North was one of the better divisions in football. I honestly believe that it might be the best division in football for the 2023/2024 season. Last year, this division once again was able to get two teams into the playoffs and one with one heck of a run to the AFC Championship game only to get reffed out of their chances of winning against the Chiefs. Not only do I think that the ceiling is high, I also think that the floor is very high as well being that the Browns have themselves a quarterback, and the Steelers are always above .500. This division plays the NFC West which has two very winnable games, as well as the AFC South which is a gift from the Gods with maybe three very winnable games. I expect the AFC North to have two, if not three teams make it to the post season for the 2023 campaign. Now that we are on to the AFC, we also have to remember that they get the extra at large home game vs the NFC. Let’s take a closer look at each team.
Divisional Odds: Bengals +140 – Ravens +240 – Browns +425 – Steelers +450
1. Cincinnati Bengals –
Vegas win total: 11.5 juiced to the under -130
2022 Wins: 12.5
Pythagorean Wins: 10.88
Schedule: Medium – At large games vs Buffalo, vs Minnesota, @ Kansas City
Schedule Last Year: Hard
Key losses: S Jessie Bates, S Vonn Bell, TE Hayden Hurst, RB Samaje Perine, CB Tre Flowers, CB Eli Apple
Key additions: T Orlando Brown, S Nick Scott, TE Irv Smith,
Key Draft Picks: Edge Myles Murphy, CB DJ Turner, S Jordan Battle, RB Chase Brown
Summary: The Bengals were so close to another super bowl appearance and many thought they had it during the AFC Championship game in Kansas City. This team was relatively healthy during the regular season, but unfortunately, they lost some offensive line and receivers late into the playoffs which caused all kinds of issues. I also do not think that the Bengals used Joe Mixon to his capabilities only giving him a total of 11 touches. Cincinnati was out-coached and outclassed for most of that game. To be honest, “Who dey” was out-coached in the game before as well vs the Ravens. Maybe you can call them lucky to even be in that game, but they were also unlucky to lose home field advantage due to the Buffalo Bills cancelled game before the playoffs. Had the Bengals won that cancelled game, they are the ones with home field advantage. The good news is that this team will have a solid and a healthy offensive line along with a top three quarterback in smoking Joe Burrow coming into the 2023 season. From a defensive perspective, I do not like what this team lost at safety, and that could be a weakness when it comes down to facing the strong passing game in the AFC. Cincinnati is really relying on their draft picks to turn out this year. For the start of the season, the Bengals secondary will remain a bit decimated with the Vonn Bell and the Jessie Bates loss until further notice. The good news is that their tough division isn’t a very pass heavy one, so there is hope that they can get that defense where it was last year ranking number eight in overall EPA. If the draft turns out, then this team will be another big super bowl contender. I think that the Bengals once again come out of the starting gate slow, and figure it out by early to mid-season. Even though I have a high projected win total, I could see this team taking a step back due to the poor coaching of Zac Taylor.
My Number: 11.69
Action: Lean over
Cincinnati Bengals Power Rating: 6.5
2. Baltimore Ravens –
Vegas win total: 10.5 juiced to the under -130
2022 Wins: 10
Pythagorean Wins: 9.32
Schedule: Medium – At large vs Detroit, @ LA Chargers, vs Miami
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: OC Greg Roman, G Ben Powers, TE Josh Oliver, DE Calais Campbell
Key additions: OC Todd Monkin, WR Odell Beckham Jr, CB Rock Ya-Sin, WR Nelson Agholor
Key Draft Picks: WR Zay Flowers, LB Trenton Simpson and a few dudes.
Summary: A simple fourteen point swing is really what did this quarterback-less Ravens team in during the playoffs. The Lamar Jackson injury certainly hurt being that I do not think that he fumble sixes at that goal line. In saying that, Lamar hasn’t had the best last few seasons under offensive coordinator Greg Roman as it is. Jackson ranked in EPA last year before missing the final six games due to injuries and contract disputes which was a bad look to his teamates. Now that Lamar proved all of the media pundits wrong by getting a massive contract without an agent, he has to now perform from an integrity aspect, gain his respect back, and maybe this is the year for him and the Ravens. The signing of Odell Beckham doesn’t really do a lot for me personally, and I think that they should have drafted defense from the get-go instead of a wide receiver. The Ravens offense is now up to a new offensive coordinator in Todd Monkin to get this team going. Todd has won some national championships at Georgia, and will have some new schemes built to fit the Lamar led offense to help create more space and some big plays coming into the 2023 NFL Season. Even though the Ravens didn’t get a lot of help from the draft, we have to remember that last year mid-season, they got the best linebacker in the game in Roquan Smith from the Bears for just a second round pick. I have to be optimistic here being that they have the Coach and a lot of Talent to potentially win the AFC North division. Baltimore’s schedule looks pretty good being that this team gets +9 net rest days, and plays nobody off of bye weeks or Thursday games. At +240, this looks like a pretty good deal being that this is the team that matches up best vs the Bengals.
My Number: 10.66
Action – Take Ravens to win the division +240 – 1 star
Baltimore Raven’s power rating: 3.25
3. Pittsburgh Steelers –
Vegas win total: 8.5 juiced to the over -135
2022 Wins: 9
Pythagorean Wins: 7.09
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large @ Las Vegas, vs Green Bay, vs New England
Schedule Last Year: Hard
Key losses: CB Cameron Sutton, LB Robert Spillane, ILB Devin Bush, G Trenton Scott, S Terrell Edmonds, CB Will Jackson, ILB Myles Jack
Key additions: G Isaac Seumalo, LB Cole Holcomb, CB Patrick Peterson, G Nate Herbig, OLB Elandon Roberts, S Keanu Neal
Key Draft Picks: T Broderick Jones, CB Joey Porter Jr, DL Keanu Benton, TE Darnell Washington, Edge Nick Herbig
Summary: Well, I do not have to feel like Nostradamus to be proven right about Mitch Trubisky, but does that really even matter? The Steelers have found their franchise quarterback in in Kenny Pickett, and if it wasn’t for such a slow start last year, this team might have limped into the wildcard spot. I must say that even though this team lost some linebackers, they certainly crushed it in free agency as well as the 2023 NFL Draft. I love how Pittsburgh has added some big offensive and defensive trenches. On offense they drafted one of the best Tackles in Broderick Jones while signing free agent Guards Isaac Seiumalo and Nate Herbig. I also really like that this team did on defense drafting Keeanu Benton from Wisconsin while resigning Larry Ogunjobi. An area of concern for this team is at the wide receiver positions being that they got rid of Chase Claypool to the Bears. The depth certainly took a hit when they failed to draft or sign another one in the offseason. Another negative issue for this team is that last year, this team was the healthiest team in all of the NFL, so I have to do expect some injury regression here. Even in this rough divsion, the Steelers have the schedule to make some serious noise coming into the 2023 season. Pittsburgh has +7 rest days as well as a pretty favorable at large meetings @ Las Vegas, Green Bay and New England. I think that this team has a great shot in making the playoffs and an outside shot to win the division.
My Number: 9.55
Action – Strong lean over – Take them to make the playoffs at +140 – .5 stars and sprinkle some on the division at +500 (premium members got this earlier at +650)
Pittsburgh Steelers Power Rating: 1.5
4. Cleveland Browns –
Vegas win total: 9.5 juiced to the under -150
2022 Wins: 7
Pythagorean Wins: 7.99
Schedule: Medium – At large @ Denver, vs Chicago, vs New York Jets
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: DC Joe Woods, QB Jacoby Brissett, C Hjalte Froholdt, DT Taven Bryan, DE Chris Winovich, CB Greedy Williams, ILB Deion Jones, S John Johnson, RB Kareem Hunt, DE Jadeveon Clowney
Key additions: DC Jim Schwartz, DE Za’Darius Smith, DT Dalvin Tomlinson, S Juan Thornill, DE Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, WR Marquise Goodwin, CB Michael Ford, S Rodney McCloud, QB DeShawn Watson will have a full season
Key Draft Picks: WR Cedric Tillman, T Dawand Jones and a bunch of hope
Summary: Doesn’t this Browns team kinda feel like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from last year except with a younger quarterback? I mean, don’t get me wrong, this team still has a lot of talent, but I feel that they are getting a little bit older in the trenches. Let’s start with the good. Cleveland finally has a competent quarterback in DeShawn Watson who is primed to play the full season. This team also has plenty of talent that they have compiled over the last few years to attempt to make a super bowl run. I do like the hiring of proven defensive coordinator in Jim Schwartz. He’ll bring some attitude to this defense. This might be the spark that this defense needs to put it all together. I also have to love the fact that the Browns, like the Ravens, do not play anyone off of bye weeks or Thursday night games which nets them +10 days of rest. Now for the bad. For starters, Kevin Stefanski is still the coach of the Browns. I truly believe he is overrated and doesn’t know how to coach games in the clutch. Next is this team’s rushing defense. The Browns took a step back only ranking 25th in opponent rushing yards per game. They picked up Dalvin Tomlinson from the Vikings, but I don’t believe that he enough when this team has big holes at Linebacker. The Browns ranked dead last in rush EPA. I do not like that at all in this run heavy division. Finally, I think that DeShawn Watson, although extremely talented, could struggle some their first five games vs the Bengals, @ the Steelers, home vs the Titans, vs the Ravens and then vs the 49ers. The Titans should be a win but the other four are iffy at best. I think if you want to take an under on this team’s win total, you do it now. If you want to take an over, then wait until week 6.
My Number: 8.5
Action: Lean under
Cleveland Browns Power Rating: -1
*Blue Means not signed
