The AFC North was as predicted in 2023, the best division in football. That is even with the injury to smoking Joe Burrow. The Ravens finished number 1 in my power ratings, the Browns had the best defense in the league, while the Steelers were respectable even without a franchise quarterback. I think that this division as whole is the most intriguing in the whole NFL. There are some scheduling quirks that will definitely benefit some of the teams, while the comeback player of the year isn’t even on the team that he finished with in 2023. Non-smoking Joe Flacco came in and lifted the Brownies to the playoffs. How many playoff teams could we get from this division? Some think three. The AFC North plays the AFC West and the NFC East this year. I think that schedule turned out well for some of these teams as both divisions have two weak teams at the bottom. Let’s dive into these teams.
Divisional Odds: Ravens +135 – Bengals +145 – Browns +600 – Steelers +850
1. Baltimore Ravens –
Vegas win total: 10.5 juiced to the over -135
2023 Wins: 13
Pythagorean Wins: 13.02
Schedule: Medium Hard – At large vs Buffalo, @ Tampa Bay, @ Houston
Schedule Last Year: Hard
Key losses: DC Michael McDonald, ILB Patrick Queen, DE Jadeveon Clowney, S Geno Stone, G John Simpson, WR Devin Duvernay, CB Ronald Darby, RB Gus Edwards, G Kevin Zietler, LB Del’Shawn Phillips, RB JK Dobbins, QB Tyler Huntley, CB Rock Ya-Sin, OLB Tyus Bowser
Key additions: RB Derek Henry, T Josh Jones
Key Draft Picks: CB Nate Wiggens, T Roger Rosengarten, Edge Adisa Isaac
Summary: The Ravens may have finished as the top team in my power ratings, but if I could bet a total on the number of super bowl wins that this team will have in the next five years, I would take the under .5. In saying that, I think that the dirty birds win at least 11 games during the regular season. There is a difference between clutch performance during the regular season and in the playoffs. Lamar doesn’t have what it takes to get to or win a super bowl thus far. The Ravens really didn’t gain much in the offseason being that they had to pay Lamar a boatload of cash. Derek Henry probably has some gas left in his tank, but can he last a full season of hits in an offense that habitually injures their running backs? I do not think so. What I will say is that even though this team shed some dudes in the offseason, I really do not see them taking a huge step back. Many guys like Patrick Queen and JK Dobbins were injured most of the year anyways. The Ravens have the best linebacker in the league in Roquan Smith, and they should be able to pick right up where they left off dominating the league. Last year, the black birds ranked 2nd in defensive EPA and 6th in offensive EPA. The interesting thing about the Ravens schedule is that they get the highest net rest days in the league in +16. Just due to this, they go from a hard schedule just to a medium hard schedule. If Lamar stays healthy, this team might once again clinch the regular season title. The Ravens are my top team in my power ratings to start the season.
My Number: 11.76
Action – Over 10.5 -135 – .5 stars
Baltimore Raven’s power rating: 7.5
2. Cleveland Browns –
Vegas win total: 8.5 juiced to the over -135
2023 Wins: 11
Pythagorean Wins: 9.93
Schedule: Hard – At large @ Jacksonville, @ New Orleans, vs Miami
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: DT Jordan Elliott, LB Sione Takitaki, CB Michael Ford, QB Joe Flacco, TE Harrison Bryant, C Nick Harris
Key additions: ILB Jordan Hicks, QB Jameis Winston, DT Quinton Jefferson, ILB Devin Bush
Key Draft Picks: DL Michael Hall Jr, G Zak Zinter and a bunch of meh
Summary: Dear Joe Flacco, thanks for helping us to 11 wins and a playoff birth last year in a really hard division. Don’t let the door hit you in the ass on the way out. Isn’t that really what it is though? I could think that Browns GM Andrew Berry is wishing that players were paid on commission. On a side not, I wouldn’t mind having a discussion with somebody about that. Either way, this team is married to De’Shawn Watson, and I really do not know what he is after missing so much football over the last three years. We also can’t forget that stud RB Nick Chubb was injured for most of the 2023 season. Let’s look at the reality of the situation for 2023. Even though Joe Flacco is gone, could this offense be any worse than last year ranking 28th in overall EPA per play? They ranked 21st in rush EPA and 28th in Drop-back EPA. The truth is that Joe Flacco came in when the Browns had the easier part of their schedule vs the Jags, the Bears, the Jets and an injured Texans team. If DeShawn Watson could be just average, this team could put up some points. The Browns defense was amazing ranking number one in overall EPA. If that happens again, this team should coast into the playoffs. I am not a big believer in Kevin Stefanski, but the Browns certainly see something in him giving him a four year extension in the offseason. I also do not like the fact that the Browns did not have a good draft. In saying all of that, I am somewhat bullish on this team due to the number 1 defense, but I will also tread carefully being that the Browns may be erratic during the season.
My Number: 9.47
Action: Lean over
Cleveland Browns Power Rating: 3
3. Cincinnati Bengals
Vegas win total: 10.5 juiced to the under -140
2023 Wins: 9
Pythagorean Wins: 7.44
Schedule: Easy – At large games vs New England, @ Carolina, @ Tennessee
Schedule Last Year: Hard
Key losses: OC Brian Callahan, CB Chidobe Awuzie, T Jonah Williams, DT DJ Reader, WR Tyler Boyd, S Nick Scott, RB Joe Mixon
Key additions: DT Sheldon Rankings, S Geno Stone, RB Zach Moss.
Key Draft Picks: T Amarius Mims, DL Kris Jenkins, WR Jermaine Burton, DL McKinnley Jackson, TE Erick All
Summary: Smoking Joe Burrow was much less smoking and a lot more freezing last year. Of course we can say that he was injured, but his team kind s of stunk before his injury even happened ranking 20th in QBR. There wasn’t a lot of movement in the offseason, yet we know that stud wide receiver Tee Higgens isn’t too happy, and I could see him on the move at some point this year. What really failed this Bengals team was their defense ranking 27th in EPA. I know that the division was hard, but having to rely on a quarterback isn’t the most exciting thing to do. What I do like is the Bengals draft picks this year. They replaced tackle Jonah Williams with Amarius Mims and may have gotten the best defensive lineman in the pool in Kris Jenkins. The defense still needs some love as the Bengals were not able to sign many players due to a smoking contract for Joe Burrow. It actually gets worse next year. The Bengals offense came alive a few games after Joe got injured due to some solid play by Jake Browning. They also had some nice fumble luck netting a +7 in that department. The Joe Mixon loss is head scratching to me as he was a much bigger part of the offense as the common man might believe. The Bengals didn’t do enough in this offseason to improve their defense. Losing offensive coordinator Brian Callahan doesn’t hurt my feelings, as I thought that he wasn’t as good as his quarterbacks have played for him, but that doesn’t mean that newly promoted OC Dan Pitcher isn’t much of the same. I hate to say it, but I am not high on this team for 2024 and I think that Zac Taylor will be taking the heat and may be on the chopping block in 2025.
My Number: 8.72
Action: Bet the under 10.5 +120 – 1 star
Cincinnati Bengals Power Rating: 0
4. Pittsburgh Steelers –
Vegas win total: 8.5 juiced to the under -165
2023 Wins: 10
Pythagorean Wins: 7.17
Schedule: Very Hard – At large @ Atlanta, @ Indianapolis, vs NY Jets
Schedule Last Year: Hard
Key losses: QB Mitch Trubisky, QB Mason Rudolph, QB Kenny Pickett, T Chukwuma Okorafor, DT Armon Watts, CB Levi Wallace, CB Patrick Peterson, C Mason Cole, SS Keanu Neal, ILB Kwon Alexander
Key additions: OC Arthur Smith, QB Justin Fields, QB Russell Wilson, ILB Patrick Queen, P Cameron Johnson, S Miles Killebrew, RB Cordarrelle Patterson, S Deshon Elliot, DE Montravius Adams, DE Dean Lowry
Key Draft Picks: T Troy Fautanu, C Zach Frazier, WR Roman Wilson, LB Payton Wilson.
Summary: When is the Steelers win total not 8.5? One could also ask when do the Steelers not win at least seven games? Could this be the year? I have to say that keeping Mason Rudolph around for a bunch of years and then finally letting him go after he won a bunch of games was asinine. Mason had a completion percentage of 74% and a QBR of 70.6 in five games. Who do they ditch him for you ask? A short aging diva who cares more about his social media life in Russell Wilson, and a running back posing as a quarterback who can’t read defenses in Justin Fields. The good news is that the Steelers do not have to pay these guys much money right now as Denver is paying Wilson’s salary and Justin Fields went from wanting a huge contract to having to prove himself behind a veteran guy. I can’t imagine the locker room this year between these two. The Steelers actually had a solid defense when healthy last year ranking 7th in total EPA. They ranked 9th against the pass and 11th against the run. The offense was the problem ranking 25th in drop-back EPA as this team played musical chairs with the quarterback position until Mason finished out the season. I do not understand the Arthur Smith hiring and not keeping their running backs coach Eddie Faulkner at offensive coordinator from when he was the interim, after they fired Matt Canada. I thought he did fine with what he had to work with. Now the Steelers by far have the hardest schedule in the league facing all super bowl contenders for the second half of the season. I only see seven wins for this team so take the under. I have the Steelers power rating at -1.25 which is slightly below average.
My Number: 7.09
Action –Under 8.5 wins -165 – 1.5 stars
Pittsburgh Steelers Power Rating: -1.25
*Blue Means not signed
Best Bets: Bengals under 10.5 +120 1 star, Steelers under 8.5 wins -165 – 1.5 stars, Ravens over 10.5 wins -135 – .5 stars
