The AFC North in 2024 was not the best division in football, it wasn’t the worst either. I would say that it was the weirdest. The Browns were supposed to be a playoff team, yet they instead threw us a curve and competed quite well for the worst team in NFL football. The Ravens lost some games that they shouldn’t have against the Chiefs and then the Raiders, then they rip off five wins in a row against teams like Buffalo, Cincinnati, Washington, and Tampa Bay, just to lose to the Browns on Week eight. The Steelers had the hardest projected schedule that turned out to be not so bad at all, and the Bengals had chose to not care so much about defense. The AFC North plays the AFC East and the NFC North, which I would call medium hard. I feel that there is a big step up from a 3rd place schedule to a 4th place schedule. Let’s see how this pans out on paper.
Best Bets: Steelers under 8.5 wins Will Howard OROY +7000 – .25 stars (FD)
Divisional Odds: Ravens -145 – Bengals +230 – Steelers +550 – Browns +3000
1. Baltimore Ravens –
Vegas win total: 11.5 juiced to the over -115
2024 Wins: 12
Pythagorean Wins: 12.18
Schedule: Medium Hard – At large vs @Buffalo, vs Houston, vs LA Rams
Schedule Last Year: Hard
Key losses: K Justin Tucker, G/C Patrick Mekari, CB Brandon Stephens, LB Malik Harrison, T Josh Jones, CB Tre’Davious White, S Marcus Williams
Key additions: QB Cooper Rush, WR DeAndre Hopkins, CB Chidobe Awuzie and some special teams guys
Key Draft Picks: S Malaki Starks, Edge Mike Green, T Emery Jones Jr. and some dudes.
Summary: Rinse repeat. The Ravens were once again the best team in football, but alas, once again blew it in the Playoffs. This is why home field advantage is such an attractive deal. Well, that and a few other things that you need to go your way. Last year’s addition of Derek Henry looked pretty genius as he seems to have a lot left in his gas tank. This team is so perfect, yet so flawed when Lamar gets deep into the playoffs. I am not going to sugar coat this. HE HAS TO PLAY BETTER! No turnovers, no sacks and just play the Ravens ballgame. Once again this Baltimore team looks destined for regular season success. I like their draft picks in Edge Mike Green and Safety Malaki Starks. My only pre-season issues is that they shed a few cornerbacks that will hurt them against some of the better offenses in this league. Will it matter as this team tends to get to the quarterback so quickly that the secondary doesn’t need to be all-stars? Probably not, but my biggest problem with taking futures on the Ravens is not being clutch in the playoffs, and Lamar has certainly taking some risks running the football. All in all, I expect the Ravens to once again win this division just to give it all back in the playoffs.
My Number: 12.59
Action – Lean over 11.5
Baltimore Raven’s power rating: 7
2. Cincinnati Bengals
Vegas win total: 9.5 juiced to the over -150
2024 Wins: 9
Pythagorean Wins: 9.42
Schedule: Medium – At large vs Jacksonville, @ Denver, vs Arizona
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: G Alex Cappa, DT Sheldon Rankins, LB Akeem Davis-Gaither, RT Trent Brown, CB Mike Hilston, S Von Bell
Key additions: DT TeDarrell Slaton, ILB Oren Burks, RB Samaje Perine, G/C Lucas Patrick
Key Draft Picks: Edge Shemar Stewart, LB Demetrius Knight Jr, G Dylan Fairchild, LB Barret Carter
Summary: The Cincinnati Bengals are really the complete opposite of the Green Bay Packers. They are a team with a lot of talent with terrible coaching to match. First, the front office decision making. Hey, I like Tee Higgens, but is this team is seriously valuing their second pass catcher over one of the best edge rushers in Tre Hendrickson? Now he’s sitting out and we do not know what is going to happen. I mean, it’s not like the 27th ranked defense in EPA needs a guy like that right? Sure, maybe he decides to end his holdout at some point in September, but there is a chance that this incompetent front office trades him. Look at what the Dallas Mavericks did with Luca. Anyways, I do expect this offense to be, once again, very good, and I also expect the defense to be, once again, well quite bad. Looking at the medium schedule, I think that their win total is a tad bit high. Maybe things line up for this team, and Joe Burrow continues to be clutch. After all, they are the only ones in this division who can beat the Ravens. This team has been stuck at nine wins for the last few years. The biggest issue with the Bengals is not personnel. It’s much more the coaching staff. Coach Zac Taylor has made some dumbfounded decisions over the past four or five years. I do not see it going any different. I could see the Bengals winning 8 – 10 games. Leaving this baby alone.
My Number: 8.72
Action: Lean under
Cincinnati Bengals Power Rating: 1
3. Pittsburgh Steelers –
Vegas win total: 8.5 juiced to the under -130
2024 Wins: 10
Pythagorean Wins: 9.44
Schedule: Medium Hard – At large vs Seattle, vs Indianapolis, @ LA Chargers
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: QB Russell Wilson, QB Justin Fields, WR George Pickens, T Dan Moore, G/C James Daniels, DE Larry Ogunjobi, CB Donte Jackson, RB Najee Harris, OLB Elandon Roberts, WR Mike Williams, Edge Preston Smith, CB CJ Henderson, T Chukwuma Okafor
Key additions: QB Aaron Rodgers, WR DK Metcalf, LB Malik Harrison, CB Darius Slay, QB Mason Rudolph, CB Brandin Echols, S Juan Thornill, WR Robert Woods, RB Kenneth Gainwell, QB Skyler Thompson.
Key Draft Picks: DL Derrick Harmon, RB Kaleb Johnson, Edge Jack Sawyer, DL Yahya Black, QB Will Howard
Summary: Like we said last year, and the year before, and the year before that. When is the Steelers win total not 8.5? The sharpest season win total play was to go under that, and how did that work out for us? Not so good. I am not falling for this again, but if I sure will not be betting the over. What the Steelers are betting on is that Aaron Rogers is still good. I am quite sure that I am not so sure of that. Last season, the NFL’s drama king ranked 25th in QBR playing on the Jets with Stacked receivers and running backs. We have to go back to 2021 since Rogers was better than that. Second option Mason Rudolph has been crapped on by this team for the past five seasons. Now they decide to bring him back? Say what you want about Russ and Justin, but as far as I can tell, the Steelers made their team worse at the most important position in football. Pittsburgh has also revamped a bunch of positions, and if it wasn’t for TJ Watt, most of this team would be unrecognizable to the common football fan. I am sure that the front office thinks that they got better by shedding WR George Pickens and adding DK Metcalf, but I just do not see a situation where DK isn’t mouthing off himself due to not getting the ball. I do like Calvin Austin III a lot, and think he will benefit from some of these distractions. Another position that took a hit was running back. This team seems to like Jalen Warren, but I think his success was due to Najee taking the brunt of the opponents defense while he was more of a distract back. Similar to the NY Giants, the Steelers will be great in the defensive trenches. They seemed to focus in that area once again in this draft. I do like the additions of Darius Slay, and some of the depth pieces that they have added to their secondary. What I do not see is a lot of talent in the inside linebacker position, and that could be an issue when facing the stronger run teams in this league. It is hard to make a prediction on this team minus the fact that Rookie quarterback Will Howard might just step on in when Rogers craps out.
My Number: 7.09
Action – Will Howard OROY +7000 – .25 stars (FD) – Steelers under 8.5 wins -130 – .5 stars
Pittsburgh Steelers Power Rating: -1.25
4. Cleveland Browns –
Vegas win total: 4.5 Juiced to the over -160
2024 Wins: 3
Pythagorean Wins: 3.75
Schedule: Hard – At large @ Las Vegas, vs San Francisco, vs Tennessee
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: QB DeShawn Watson, DT Dalvin Tomlinson, RT James Hudson, QB Jameis Winston, S Juan Thornhill, CB Michael Ford, T Jedrick Wills, C Nick Harris, RB Nick Chubb
Key additions: QB Kenny Pickett, DT Maliek Collins, T Cornelius Lucas, OLB Joe Tryon, QB Joe Flacco, LB Devin Bush, G Teven Jenkins, S Rayshawn Jenkins
Key Draft Picks: DL Mason Graham, LB Carson Schwesinger, RB Quinshon Judkins, TE Harold Fannin Jr, QB Dillon Gabriel, RB Dylan Sampson, QB Shedeur Sanders
Summary: For the love of God. Everyone got the Browns wrong in the beginning of 2024. My projected 9.47 wins turned into three, and with all due disrespect, they were lucky to get that. The Browns are just a terrible organization, and just when you think that they made the best draft trade of the year, they go ahead and pick two running backs and two quarterbacks in later rounds. I honestly do not understand why the would pick Dillon Gabriel in the third round when he wasn’t projected to be in the top 5 rounds, and then go ahead and pick Shedeur Sanders who teams have soured on in the 5th round. It would have made more sense if these were flip-flopped, but here we are. The good news for this team is that there isn’t much room to be any worse than last year. Ranking dead last in offensive EPA leaves no room to get much worse. I do like the running back that they drafted in Quinshon Judkins, but this team still has to figure out the ever so crowded quarterback room. Another issue is that this team doesn’t have much at the wide receiver position since they traded Amari Cooper. The offensive line is poor, and they have not re-signed Tackle Jedrick Wills. The Browns defense was the only bright spot from 2025 led by an expensive Myles Garrett. The Brownies defense was a modest 18th in EPA per play. The real bad news is that the Browns have the second hardest schedule in the league. Part of that reason was getting the 49ers as their NFC at large game, as well as being net negative -7 days of rest. Playing the Ravens, the Bengals and the Steelers all twice isn’t much fun either. Can the Browns somehow find five or six wins this year? Maybe. Teams that were embarrassed tend to play better the following year, but do not bet the over on their season win total, because you might not have much fun in doing so.
My Number: 4.38
Action: Lean Under
Cleveland Browns Power Rating: -6.5
