The AFC South – They say last but not least but not in this case. I am not talking about strength, I am talking about the difficulty to figure them out. This division has a very high variance of outcomes in my opinion. Once Again the AFC South has somehow achieved 2 playoff teams in with very hard schedules in 2019. Let’s not forget the whole Andrew Luck thing making so that maybe 3 teams could have made it had he not retired. In saying all of this, I really think that this year the schedule looks medium easy. This division has to play the NFC north which is medium and the AFC North which is easier and has had some struggling teams as of last year. I am not sure Pittsburgh will be showing a ton of offense and the Bengals will not be ready. In the NFC North, the Bears are a huge question mark to many people but the Vikings should regress and the Lions were not good last year. Lets take a deeper dive.
- Houston Texans – Vegas win total – 7.5
Schedule – Medium Hard – At large games vs New England and Kansas City
Key losses: Wr D’Andre Hopkins, DT DJ Reader, RB Carlos Hyde, CB Johnathan Joseph, OLB Barkevious Mingo
Key additions: RB David Johnson, TE Darren Fells, WR Randall Cobb, FS Eric Murray, CB Jalen Watkins,
Whom they drafted: DL Ross Blaylock, Edge Johnathan Greenard, OT Charlie Heck
Summery: Remember that time when Houston blew a 24-3 point lead in the playoffs last year to the Kansas City Chiefs? I don’t because I refuse to play that garbage in my head over and over again but what I do know is that Bill O’Brien may be the worst coach in the entire league and even a worse GM for the fact that he traded away the best wide receiver in the league in D’Andre Hopkins just to get in return an over-paid running back with a history of injuries. In saying all of that, I think that this team has a medium hard schedule and I do not think that they repeat at being number 1 in their division. DeShawn Watson can only do so much. JJ Watt is getting older and they really didn’t replace their pass rush loss of Jadaveon Clowney. Their at large games vs New England and Kansas City should split being that they get the Patriots at home, but I do expect losses against Cleveland, Baltimore, At Chicago and home against Green Bay. This team’s Pythagorean win total was only at 7.8 last year and will factor into this year lowing those 10 wins that the achieved. When i saw this win total I was wishing that it would be even higher but Vegas agrees with me and I have them at 7.4 wins
Action: No Play
2. Tennessee Titans – Vegas Win Total – 8.5
Schedule: Easy – At large games vs Buffalo and Denver
Key losses: RT Jake Conklin, QB Marcus Marriota, CB Leshawn Simms, DT Austin Johnson, TE Delainey Walker
Key additions: Edge Vic Beasley, CB Johnathan Joseph, T Ty Sambrailo, DT Jack Crawford and a bunch of dudes
Whom they drafted: T Isaiah Wilson, CB Kristian Fulton and just a few others
Summary: The Titans moved a lot of side to side this year. I know that they really didn’t have Delainey Walker much last year at tight end due to injuries but they also didn’t make an effort to replace him from his free agency loss. Maybe he gets a deal done but I have to assume that he’s gone for now. My big problem with this Titans team is that they really didn’t do enough to put this team over the edge in free agency. If they wanted to be more of a power run team like the 49ers then why did they not get a nice tight end like a George Kittle. I suppose that I give a ton of credit to Ryan Tannahill and he is a better quarterback than we all thought he was, but I am not sure that he is that guy that can do it all himself like a Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson or Patrick Mahomes. I also do not like the loss of Jack Conklin at right tackle to Cleveland. I expect a similar season from last year but with more wear and tear on Derrick Henry. I have the Titans at 9 wins.
Action: Slight lean over
3. Indianapolis Colts – Vegas Win total – 9
Schedule – Easy – At large games vs NY Jets and Oakland
Key losses: TE Eric Ebron, CB Pierre Desir, WR Devin Funchess, T Joe Haeg
Key additions: QB Phillip Rivers, CB Xavier Rhodes, DT Sheldon Day, RT Laraven Clark,
Whom they drafted: WR Michael Pittman, RB Jonathan Taylor, S Julian Blackmon, QB Jacob Eason
Summary: There are a lot of people pretty high on the Colts these year. For me, I am a bit more skeptical. Last year really started out bad with Andrew Luck deciding to retire right before the season started. This in my opinion factored into the colts tough season last year of only 7 wins on an easy schedule. Now Vegas has this team winning the NFC South division and I am not exactly sure if that can happen. Obviously Phillip Rivers is a big addition and an upgrade from Jacoby Brissett, but how much of an upgrade is it when Rivers tends to only play well at the end of the games. I also wonder how big that upgrade is when you talk about the fact that Rivers won’t get a lot of reps with this team or these players during the Pandemic. I think the did a good job in free agency to patch up the defense but I am a little concerned about their tight end position. Rivers to Antonio Gates was a huge thing for the Chargers and losing Ebron just leaves Jack Doyal and headcase Trey Burton. My win total for them is 8.9 so no play here.
Action -No Play
4. Jacksonville Jaguars – Vegas win total – 4.5
Schedule: Medium – At large games vs Miami and LA Chargers
Key losses: T Cedric Ogbuehi, QB Nick Foles, DE Calais Campell, WR Marquise Lee
Key additions: ILB Joe Schobert, DL Rodney Gunter, TE TYler Eifert, DT AL Woods, CB Rashaan Melvin, RB Chris Thompson, OLB Aaron Lynch
Whom they drafted: CB CJ Henderson, Edge K’Lavon Chaisson, WR Laviska Shenault, DL Davon Hamilton
Summary: I really do not know what to think of this Jaguars team with such a low win total of 4.5. I really just feels like a team of no-names with a gimmicky QB in the Mustach Gardner Minshew. He is a great kid and all but I don’t think that Mike Leach’s system in college translates well into the NFL and you saw him struggle. The good news for this team is that they finished the season well winning 2 of their last 3 games but I still have some major questions about their offensive line that ranked only 26th in pro football focus. This teams Pythagorean wasn’t really all that bad at 5.3 last year and they had lots of transitions from Nick Foles to Gardner and lost a few guys on defense. I actually think their schedule is medium but manageable. My win number on this team is 5.2 but I only see 4 that they should get for sure home vs the Lions, at Cincinnati, at LA Chargers and the Steelers and Dolphins are coin flips. The rest look a lot like losses to me. I’ll lean to the over. Doug Marone will be on the hot seat this year.
Action – No Play
