The AFC South – Jacksonville was awarded the NFL’s most crumbiest team after only getting 1 win last year and it happened to be the first game of the season vs the Colts. The good news is that they are not NFL’s most pathetic team, who would be the Jets, who completely blew their chances to get Trevor Lawrence by beating the Rams. For 2021, it looks like Houston wants to make an argument for the worst team in professional football so we will see how that all pans out. The AFC South should be a very top-heavy division this year with the ready to win Colts and Titans up top with the rebuilding Texans and the Jaguars at the low bottom. DeShawn Watson is certainly the biggest question mark in this division. The AFC South will have their work cut out for them this year having to play the NFC West and the AFC East.
1. Tennessee Titans – Vegas Win Total – 9.5
Tennessee Titans Power Rating: 1.25
Schedule: Medium – At large games vs Kansas City, @ Pittsburgh, New Orleans
Key losses: TE Jonnu Smith, CB Adoree Jackson, WR Corey Davis, DE Jadeveon Clowney, DT DaQuon Jones, CB Malcolm Butler, CB Desmond King
Key additions: OLB Bud Dupree, WR Julio Jones, DE Denico Autrey, CB Janoris Jenkins, RT Kendell Lamb, CB Kevin Johnson
Key Draft Picks: CB Caleb Farley, OT Dillon Radunz, LB Montey Rice
Summary: The Titans beefed up their pass rush adding Bud Dupree and Denico Autry but they did lose some guys like Jadeveon Clowney and DaQuon Jones. This team at least was able to take on that large contract for Julio Jones and I think that they paid up the nose for him. Julio obviously should be an upgrade over Corey Davis as long as he stays healthy, but that doesn’t make up for Tennessee losing their tight end in Jonnu Smith. Tennessee’s Pythagorean win total was much lower at 9.19 wins compared to their actual adjusted wins of 11.69. They basically over-acheived with respect to the amount of points they scored and had given up. As far as the draft, I wasn’t so sure what they were doing when they picked injury prone Caleb Farley so early. As a whole, I really didn’t like this team’s draft at all, and they also lost two good receivers in Jonnu Smith and Corey Davis to free agency and they were not replaced. I have to assume that the Titans will keep pounding the rock and setting up play action for AJ Brown and Julio, but my question is can they now take a step forward on offense after acquiring all of this talent? I have to think that they took a step backward in the offseason in general at least until they got Jones. The good news is that their at large games are against New Orleans who has a new QB and many new players, and Pittsburgh who might take a step back as well.
My Number: 9.34
Action: Lean over
2. Indianapolis Colts – Vegas Win total – 10 juiced to the under
Indianapolis Colt’s Power Rating: 4
Schedule – Medium – At large games vs Las Vegas, @ Baltimore, Tampa Bay
Key losses: LT Anthony Castonzo, DE Denico Autry, QB Jacoby Brissett, ILB Anthony Walker, DE Justin Houston, S Malik Hooker, QB Phillip Rivers
Key additions: QB Carson Wentz, LT Eric Fisher, RT Sam Tevi, DT Isaac Rochell
Whom they drafted: Edge Kwity Paye, Edge Dayo Odeyingbo, QB Sam Ellinger
Summary: This was a very good Colts team last year but they had 1 major problem. Just like we said last year, their quarterback was good with stats and bad with finishing games. Phillip Rivers will probably go down as a Dan Marino type quarterback and now that he is gone, it remains to be seen if a motivated Carson Wentz is any different. The good news is that Wentz is now back with Frank Reich who was his offensive coordinator in Philadelphia the year that Carson had his greatest success. My issue is that this team really didn’t do well in the 2021 NFL draft. In saying that, I think the Colts will probably win the division due to just being loaded at Linebacker, having great skill positions, and having a great offensive line ranking number 2 in pro football focus. I am a little concerned with Anthony Castonzo retiring but they did at least sign some guys in free agency like Eric Fisher to cover that loss. The Colts were also pretty banged up last year, and if they can stay healthy, this will be a super bowl contender come playoff time.
My Number: 10.95
Action – Over 10
3. Houston Texans – Vegas win total is 4 juiced to the over
Houston Texans Power Rating: -6.25
Schedule – Hard – At large games vs LA Chargers, @ Cleveland, Carolina
Key losses: QB DeShawn Watson (maybe), DE JJ Watt, WR Will Fuller,
Key additions: OLB Kevin Pierre Lewis, CB Terrance Mitchell, OLB Jordan Jenkins, QB Tyrod Taylor, G Justin McCray, RB Phillip Lindsey and a bunch of mid-tier guys
Key Draft Picks: QB Davis Mills, WR Nico Collins and not much else
Summary: Just like I did the Green Bay Packers, I have to assume that DeShawn Watson is playing this year. That said, this team has some big troubles this year and their new coach David Culley has been set up to fail. The Texans started making dumb moves when Bill O’Brien was still there coaching when they traded the best wide receiver in football in D’Andre Hopkins to the Cardinals for a broken down running back in David Johnson. Now they let JJ Watt move on, (also to the Cardinals) this team will have to make up for not only his production, but also his leadership. If there is any silver lining, this Texans team did underachieve last year. Their adjusted Pythagorean win total was actually 7 games compared to their 4.25 adjusted wins but that doesn’t make you confident in the outlook of this team especially if DeShawn Watson isn’t playing or is traded this year meaning rookie Davis Mills or veteran Tyrod Taylor would get the start. Houston had a horrible draft class this year and they picked up a bunch of mediocre guys from the free agency bin. Lovie Smith will be the new defensive coordinator for this team but I don’t think that matters much. The Texans have the lowest win total in NFL football this year and I agree with it. Houston had one of the easiest football schedules last year and will have it much harder this year. I will not be betting the over and I actually lean under.
My Number: 3.13 wins
Action: No Play
4. Jacksonville Jaguars – Vegas win total – 6.5 juiced to the under -140
Jacksonville Jaguars Power Rating: -8.75
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large games vs Denver, @ Cincinnati, Atlanta
Key losses: Nobody
Key additions: Coach Urban Meyer, CB Shaquille Griffin, S Rayshawn Jenkins, DT Roy Robinson Harris, RB Carlos Hyde and a bunch of medium dudes
Key Draft Picks: QB Trevor Lawrence, RB Travis Etienne, CB Tyson Campbell, OT Walker Little
Summary: Jacksonville’s win total went from 4.5 last year to 6.5. That is quite optimistic due to having only one real win last year. The Jaguar’s Pythagorean adjusted total was 4.46 which tells a slightly more realistic story over their 1 win from last year. In Saying that, the optimism is pretty high for this team with a new coach who had a ton of success in college. My issue with Urban Meyer is that the offense that he ran in college does not translate well to the NFL, and that is part of the reason that his quarterbacks that he coached in college such as Chris Leak, Duane Haskins, Cardale Jones and Tim Tebow never translated to the NFL. I am not sure how much Urban Meyer is going to change in his rookie season. I do at least like his first draft pick in Trevor Lawrence who has a ton of upside and a very high floor. Another thing that I do not like is some of their free agent signings that came at a high price yet were not great players on their previous teams. Shaquille Griffin got burned a lot last year in Seattle, and Rayshawn Jenkins didn’t do all that much for the Chargers. I think that this team will score some points but they also will screw up enough for the other team to force turnovers. This team at least gets to play the Texans twice as well as some easier at large games vs some bottom feeding teams. I have to look under.
My Number: 5.26
Action – Play the under but wait for a better number
