The AFC South – If I could completely skip this division with apologies to the Jaguars, I certainly would. Maybe we can get creative here. The AFC South is once again certainly the worst division in the NFL. The Jaguars are sitting pretty on top with six very winnable games. This year we will see a least two, if not three quarterback changes when Will Levis gets going for the Titans. The AFC South plays the AFC North and the NFC East which is pretty rough, and a lot tougher than this division in itself. The biggest blessing that a 2023 NFL team could get from their schedule is to get to play the AFC South. A huge congrats to the NFC East and the AFC North. Let’s dig in a bit too see if we could eek out some value.
Division Winner: Jags -150 – Titans +400 – Colts +500 – Texans +750
1. Jacksonville Jaguars –
Vegas win total: 9.5 juiced to the over -135
2022 Wins: 9
Pythagorean Wins: 9.72
Schedule: Medium Easy – at large vs Kansas City, vs Buffalo* (in London) vs San Francisco
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: RT Jawaan Taylor, OLB Arden Key, S Chris Wingard, TE Chris Manhertz, CB Shaquill Griffin, WR Marvin Jones, DT Corey Peters
Key additions: K Brandon McManus, RT Josh Wells, WR Calvin Ridley back suspension
Key Draft Picks: T Anton Harrison, TE Brenton Strange, LB Ventrell Miller, Edge Tyler Lacy, Edge Yasir Abdullah, S Antonio Johnson and a bunch more.
Summary: This Jaguars team was wonderful last year minus some dumb mistakes. Jacksonville lost some easier games throughout the early part of the season. They might have beaten the Super Bowl champion Chiefs had they not fumbled late inside the Chief’s five yard line. First, let’s talk about the bad. There really isn’t too much to say minus that the Jaguars lost some pretty good players to free agency. They are certainly taking a chance with former Oklahoma Sooner Left Tackle Anton Harrison being slotted into the starting position right away due to the loss of Jawaan Taylor, and the suspension of Cam Robinson for PEDs. The good news is that these team has a good scheme to have Trevor get rid of the ball quickly. Press Taylor has been a very underrated offensive coordinator. Other than that, I expect this Jaguars team to be fierce. They certainly had a ton of draft picks, and with any hope, will hit on a few of them to improve this defense from 12th in EPA, hopefully to top 8. The good news for the Jaguars is that their schedule looks very promising. They do have some rough games vs some at large opponents, but they are all at home if you count London as their secondary home. How can you not love the fact that they get to play the teams in their division twice? Jacksonville also doesn’t get any teams coming off of bye weeks. We have to remember that this team is getting Calvin Ridley back from suspension so that has to count for something. I can see good things happening for the Jaguars, and I would not be surprised if they have the best regular season record in the AFC.
My Number: 9.86
Action – Jacksonville to win AFC +1600
Jacksonville Jaguars Power Rating: – 3.75
2. Tennessee Titans –
Vegas win total: 7.5 juiced to under -130
2022 Wins: 7
Pythagorean Wins: 6.82
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large games vs Chargers, @ Miami, vs Seattle
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: G Nate Davis, DE Demarcus Walker, WR Robert Woods, LB David Long, OLB Bud Dupree, DE Mario Edwards, LT Taylor Lewan
Key additions: OC Tim Kelly, T Andre Dillard, OLB Arden Key, T Daniel Brunskill, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, CB Sean Bunting
Key Draft Picks: T Peter Skoronski, QB Will Levis, RB Ryjae Spears
Summary: The Titans were one win away from stealing the wildcard spot from the Jaguars, but their Pythagorean number would have said that they were very lucky. This team was a front office mess over the last two years. Tennessee sure knows how to piss off a quarterback. Say what you want about Ryan Tannehill, but he is a solid starter, and this Will Levis thing is only going to piss him off even more this offseason. Tennessee has promoted Tim Kelly from passing coordinator to offensive coordinator coming into this season. Kelly squired behind Bill O’Brian, and in his short tenure as the offensive coordinator in in Houston, the team went 4-13. What could go wrong? From a skill positions perspective, I really do not see much talent past an aging Derek Henry who probably should be traded or let go. The defense should once again be solid after they filled some holes in free agency, but I feel that the Titan’s front office also created some holes due to free agency. In 2022 the Titans ranked 30th in passing yards per game. They struggled to score points in almost every game. I see a very bad offense going into 2023. The good news is that the Titans schedule is pretty favorable this year as they get +11 rest days as well as getting the Chargers early, and Miami late. I want to play the Chargers early due to the new offense under Kellen Moore, and Miami late due to the potentially head injuries which could happen to Tua. This win total is pretty low as it is, but even with the schedule, I have to still lean under.
My Number: 6.91
Action: Lean
Tennessee Titans Power Rating: -2.25
3. Houston Texans –
Vegas win total: 6.5 juiced to the under – 130
2022 Wins: 3.5
Pythagorean Wins: 4.93
Schedule: Medium Easy – at large vs Arizona, vs Denver, @ New York Jets
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: Coach Lovie Smith, DE Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, DE Rasheem Green, C Justin Britt, G AJ Cann, DE Mario Addison
Key additions: WR Robert Woods, S Jimmy Ward, DT Sheldon Rankings, TE Dalton Schultz, QB Case Keenum, CB Tremon Smith, CB Shaquill Griffin, DT Hassan Ridgeway, RB Devin Singletary, DE Chea Winovich and a bunch more.
Key Draft Picks: QB CJ Stroud, Edge Will Anderson, C Juice Scruggs, and a bunch of hope
Summary: This Texans team like most of this division, has a very boneheaded front office. How the heck are you going to allow the Bears to take the 1st pick of the draft by allowing Lovie to coach that last game? Now the team has to pretend that they wanted CJ Stroud all along, and maybe he might even be the better quarterback over the rest of the draft, but they still could have traded down a spot and had gotten him anyways. For the bad mistakes over the past few years, the Texans were extremely active in free agency and this defense might even look half way respectable with Demeco Ryans as head coach, Matt Burke as defensive coordinator, and Bobby Slowik as offensive coordinator who hopefully learned a lot from Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco. Although This team kinda got screwed on their fourth place at large games against Denver and the New York Jets, This team could be sneaky ok by the middle of the 2023 NFL season. The CJ Stroud and Will Anderson picks from the 2023 NFL draft were one hell of a 1-2 punch. Now with John Mechie trending healthy and the Robert Woods acquisition, maybe this team can eventually be somewhat respectable. Lots of wait and see, but I am somewhat optimistic here.
My Number: 6.72 wins
Action: Strong Lean Over
Houston Texans Power Rating: -4.5
4. Indianapolis Colts –
Vegas win total: 6.5 juiced to the over -135
2022 Wins: 4.5
Pythagorean Wins: 5.93
Schedule: Easy – vs LA Rams, New England (in Frankfurt Germany), vs Las Vegas
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: Coaches Jeff Saturday and Frank Reich, QB Matt Ryan, QB Nick Foles, LB Bobby Okereke, CB Brandon Facyson, WR Parris Campbell, S Rodney McLeod
Key additions: Coach Shane Steichen, DE Samson Ebukam, K Matt Gay, LB EJ Speed, DT Taven Bryan, QB Garner Minshew, WR Isaiah McKenzie
Whom they drafted: QB Anthony Richardson, CB Julius Brents, WR Josh Downs, T Blake Freeland and a bunch of late dudes.
Summary: Some say that the Houston Texans are the worst team in football. Some say it is the Cardinals, or the Buccaneers. Well they are all wrong. The worst team in football is the Indianapolis Colts and I am not even sure that it’s close. The Colts have the worst ownership in the NFL, and looking at other owners such as the Fords and the McCaskies, that is really saying something. So the Colts were “supposed” to be the best team in their division last year, but they faltered all the way to third due to pure incompetence from leadership. Both the head coach and the interim coach Jeff Saturday was fired last season and I am not even sure how much of the fault that they should bear. Was Matt Ryan that bad of a quarterback? He wasn’t with the Falcons. Transitioning to this year, new coach Shane Steichen will take over the offense with help from his new OC Jim Bob Cooter. Now if that isn’t a name for southern football, I do not know what is. Defensive Coordinator Gus Bradley remains in place who actually wasn’t the main problem with this team, but as far as talent goes, this team certainly lacks it on defense minus maybe Shaq Leonard and a few overpriced guys. The worst move of the 2023 year thus far was drafting the most over-rated quarterback prospect in the draft in Anthony Richardson from Florida. Richardson is fast and strong, but he will not be able to run much in the NFL if teams do not respect the pass. Richardson was 54% accurate last year and I do not expect him to develop for quite some time if ever. Gardner Minshew will give it his best throwing to Michael Pittman and Jelani Woods. If there is any upside on this team, it’s that they at least still have Jonathan Taylor at running back coming back from injury, and an easier schedule for 2023. The Colts also just have only seven true away games with the neutral one in Frankfurt. Even after all that, I have the Colts only winning 4.96 games. Taking the under
My Number: 4.96
Action – Under
Indianapolis Colt’s Power Rating: -7.5
*Blue means not signed or picked up by an NFL team
