The AFC South – This may have been the most interesting division in football from 2023. The Texans go from worst to first while the Jaguars fumbled their way out of the playoffs. The Titans were just flat out bad while the Colts had a very promising year even after their stud quarterback Anthony Richardson got hurt. One thing to note is that the top three teams here all over-achieved from an expected win total. This year, there is certainly a lot of speculation in the direction of these teams as there is a lot of love for the Texans and Colts, and almost no love for the Titans and Jaguars. The AFC South plays the NFC North and the AFC East for at large scheduling. This is quite rough as there are only two teams that have win totals under 8.5 from both divisions. The AFC South used to be the worst in football. Not anymore. Let’s see how this division is worthy this year as one of the better ones in football.
Division Winner: Texans +105 – Jags +275 – Colts +310 – Titans +1000
1. Houston Texans –
Vegas win total: 9.5 juiced to the over -140
2023 Wins: 10
Pythagorean Wins: 8.61
Schedule: Medium Hard – at large @ Dallas, @ Kansas City, vs Baltimore
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: DE Jonathan Greenard, DT Sheldon Rankings, LB Blake Cashman, RB Devin Singletary, T George Fant, P Cameron Johnson, ILB Denzel Perryman, G Michael Dieter, DE Jerry Hughes, CB Steven Nelson, DT Hassan Ridgeway.
Key additions: WR Stephan Diggs, RB Joe Mixon, OLB Danielle Hunter, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, DE Denico Autry, P Tommy Townsend, DT Tim Settle, DE Foley Fatuaski, CB Jeff Okudah, CB Michael Ford.
Key Draft Picks: CB Kamari Lassiter, T Blake Fisher, S Calen Bullock, TE Cade Stover
Summary: The Houston Texans are all in for 2024. What a great move last year drafting the top quarterback and the top edge rusher in this draft. Going from worst to first in this division was nice, and now DeMeco Ryans (whome I think was snubbed for coach of the year), has his work cut out for him. The unique thing about the NFL is that they always try to equalize the teams on a year to year basis. The Texans now will go from having one of the easiest schedules in the NFL, to a first place schedule that is pretty darn hard. They opened the check book this year to sign some big names, but I really do not like the Stephan Diggs move. Diggs is not a good locker room guy and he is expensive. Houston got by last year based on clutch QB play from C.J. Stroud, and great defense ranking 6th in rush EPA. Where the Texan’s were not quite as good was against the pass ranking 19th in drop-back EPA. They also struggled to run the ball well on offense ranking 26th in rush EPA. The Texans over-achieved some last year, and should have only won 8.6 games according to Pythagorean standards. I think that this team will continue to be good against the run, but I am not so sure about against the pass. My biggest concern is for the offensive line. Joe Mixon has been added to the run game while Devin Singletary gets cut. Will this be enough? I am not sure. If I had to pick a player/coach that might be the biggest candidates for a Sophomore slump, it would be CJ Stroud and DeMeco Ryans. With the tough schedule, I am going 8.7 wins and I’ll take an under 10 when one pops.
My Number: 8.72
Action: Lean Under
Houston Texans Power Rating: 2.75
2. Jacksonville Jaguars –
Vegas win total: 8.5
2023 Wins: 9
Pythagorean Wins: 8.84
Schedule: Medium – at large vs Cleveland, @ Philadelphia, @ LA Raiders
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: WR Calvin Ridley, CB Darious Williams, S Rayshawn Jenkins, DE Foley Fatukasi, K Brandon McManus, OLB K’Lavon Chaisson, DE Dawuane Smoot, WR Zay Jones
Key additions: DE Arik Armstead, WR Gabriel Davis, S Darnell Savage, C Mitch Morse, WR Devin Duvernay, CB Ronald Darby
Key Draft Picks: WR Brian Thomas Jr., DL Maason Smith, CB Jarrian Jones, T Javon Foster, DL Jordan Jefferson and a bunch of dudes.
Summary: 2023 was a very strange year for the Jaguars and Trevor Lawrence. I watched this team make mistake, after mistake, and I just could not understand it. At the end of the season, I thought to myself that Trevor’s mind ain’t right and maybe he needs a sports psychologist. Was it the pressure that got to him? He is supposed to be a franchise guy, but now I am just not quite so sure. The 55 million dollar per year contract with 200M guaranteed says he is anyways. I guess it wasn’t all that bad if you look at the numbers. The Jaguars were 14th in drop-back EPA and Lawrence was 17th in QBR. The biggest issue was running the ball ranking 30th in rush EPA. Turnovers hurt as well finishing at -3 in turnover margin for the season. On defense, this team was just very average ranking 13th in EPA per play. The schedule eases up maybe just a little this year going from a first place situation to a second. The Jaguars are a net positive this year in rest days at +4, but the bad side is that two home games vs the Bears and the Patriots are overseas in London. They are used to London, but still, there will be fans from both teams. What I do like is some of their free agency moves. The Jags shed some WRs that were not producing to then draft a good one in the first round in Brian Thomas. This team really seamed to like LSU guys as they also drafted two LSU defensive lineman. Like the Texans, I am concerned for the Jaguars offensive line. Mike Clay put out his rankings and he has the Texans at 29th and the Jaguars at 28th. Not good. I think that this team has a shot at making the playoffs, but I also think that they might want to win their division back. I could see a small bet on one of those outcomes.
My Number: 9.67
Action – Jacksonville to make the playoffs +130 – .5 stars
Jacksonville Jaguars Power Rating: – 1.75
3. Indianapolis Colts –
Vegas win total: 8.5 juiced to the under -125
2023 Wins: 9
Pythagorean Wins: 7.89
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large vs Pittsburgh, @ Denver, @ NY Giants
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: QB Gardner Minshew, RB Zach Moss
Key additions: DT Raekwon Davis, QB Joe Flacco
Whom they drafted: Edge Laiatu Latu, WR Adonai Mitchell, T Matt Goncalves, C Tanor Bortolini, WR Anthony Gould
Summary: The Colts must really really like their team being that they signed all of their free agents and didn’t spend much time shopping. I will say that Shane Steichen did an tremendous job with what he had. This team manufactured nine wins while only getting 3.5 games from their top draft pick in Anthony Richardson. Now I will say that the jury is still out on this young quarterback. We do not know if he will really pan out in the NFL, and having Gardner Minshew as the backup wasn’t all that bad. This team was one win away from making the playoffs, and Minshew heled this team win 6 of their last 9 games. Now Minshew is gone and Flacco takes the backup reigns. It is hard for me to really gauge what this Colts team really is with Anthony Richardson. On offense they had average numbers ranking 17th in EPA. On defense, the Colts were pretty close to average at 19th in EPA. They over-achieved some last year winning nine games when their Pythagorean win total was 7.89. I can only say that this team should be around average for the start of the 2024 season. Maybe Richardson proves that he is a franchise guy this year, but I am not holding my breath.
My Number: 8.45
Action – No Play
Indianapolis Colt’s Power Rating: -1
4. Tennessee Titans –
Vegas win total: 6.5 juiced to the under -135
2023 Wins: 6
Pythagorean Wins: 7
Schedule: Hard – At large games @ LA Chargers, @ Washington, vs Cincinnati
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: Coach Mike Vrable, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, CB Sean Bunting, C Aaron Brewer, DE Denico Autry, RB Derick Henry, CB Kristian Fulton, QB Ryan Tannehill
Key additions: Coach Brian Callahan, OC Nick Holz, DC Dennard Wilson, WR Calvin Ridley, C Lloyd Cushenberry, CB Chidobe Awuzie, RB Tony Pollard, LB Kenneth Murray, DT Sebastian Joseph, K Nick Folk, QB Mason Rudolph, WR Tyler Boyd
Key Draft Picks: T JC Latham, DL T’Vondre Sweat, LB Cedrick Gray
Summary: The Tennessee Titans have definitely experienced the most change in this division. Out goes Mike Vrable, and in comes Brian Callahan. Gonna be up front here and say that I do not like this change. Vrable had gotten a lot out of a team that was cursed with some very bad general management. I also am not to keen on Brian Callahan as he comes from the Zac Taylor tree in Cincinnati. I have always thought that Cincinnati could have been better had they had good coaching and coordinators. I am also not too sure of Dennard Wilson as a defensive coordinator. He was most recently under the Ravens and before that the Eagles, so he does have some good accolades, but that doesn’t mean he can run the show. Titans running back Derrick Henry has finally left the franchise who was a staple on this team. Will Levis will be the week one starter as expected, but I am not so sure that he can have that much success as he wasn’t all that successful in college at Kentucky. Levis has a powerful arm, but he isn’t all that accurate. I think that there is a pretty solid chance that Mason Rudolph ends up taking the reigns come mid season. The wide receiver crew is led by some aging veterans like DeAndre Hopkins and Calvin Ridley. Tyler Boyd decided to join the team as well as he completes the geriatric trifecta. The Titans had a pretty rough defense last year ranking 28th in EPA, while the offense was close to average. Even though the Titans couldn’t win a lot of games, they did at least have an expected win total of seven. I personally think that the Titans could have a rough year if things do not all their way. Gonna agree some with the market here.
My Number: 5.75
Action: Lean under
Tennessee Titans Power Rating: -4
*Blue means not signed or picked up by an NFL team
Best Bet: Jacksonville to make the playoffs +130 – .5 stars
