The AFC South – The AFC South is the most agonizing division in the NFL. In the beginning of the season, the Titans blew a massive 17 point lead to the Bears, all during the second half. They also choked the next few games away as well. The Jaguars were grossly incompetent as well in choking away their first two games, while the Colts continue to have quarterback issues. The Texans once again had it pretty easy last season, and it didn’t take much for them to slither into the playoffs. This season, this division plays the AFC West and the NFC West, which is tricky as due to more travel. Can the Texans keep their number one spot? Are the Jaguars ever going to play up to their talent? Can the Colts rush their way into the playoffs? How bad will the Titans be this season? Let’s dive in.
Best Bet: Jacksonville Jaguars over 7.5 wins – 1 star
Division Winner: Texans +115 – Jags +260 – Colts +380 – Titans +650
1. Houston Texans –
Vegas win total: 9.5 juiced to the under -120
2024 Wins: 10
Pythagorean Wins: 8.5
Schedule: Medium Hard – at large vs Tampa Bay, @ Baltimore, vs Buffalo
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: T Laremy Tunsil, G Kenyon Green, WR Stephon Diggs (didn’t play much), S Eric Murray, CB Jeff Okudah, QB Case Keenum, WR Robert Woods, G Shaq Mason.
Key additions: WR Christian Kirk, S CJ Gardner-Johnson, T Cam Robinson, CB Tremon Smith, LB Nick Niemann, DT Sheldon Rankins, WR Justin Watson, G Laken Tomlinson, CB Ronald Darby.
Key Draft Picks: WR Jayden Higgins, T Aireontae Ersery.
Summary: The Texans were once again very busy in free agency. Some analysts were shocked that they decided to trade tackle Laremy Tunsil, and Kenyon Green. This team was poor at protecting CJ Stroud, so changes had to be made. Dumping wide receiver Stephon Diggs is already proving to be the right move here in the offseason. Most importantly, this team didn’t have to be great to make the playoffs ranking only 21st in offensive EPA. Their defense certainly helped carry the way ranking 6th in overall EPA, and I do not see them taking a step back on that side of the ball, especially with a defensive minded coach like Demeco Ryans. I like how this team added slot receiver Christian Kirk. Wide receivers Nico Collins & Tank Dell should finally be back healthy, and I expect some big improvement this year in the offense. The Texan’s schedule doesn’t set up too bad for a first place team. There really isn’t all that much more to say about Houston. They made all the right moves. I think that this team could be the one of the best teams that nobody is talking about in the AFC.
My Number: 10.25
Action: Lean Over
Houston Texans Power Rating: 2.25
2. Jacksonville Jaguars –
Vegas win total: 7.5
2024 Wins: 4
Pythagorean Wins: 5.42
Schedule: Easy – at large vs Carolina, @ Cincinnati, vs NY Jets
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: HC Doug Peterson, TE Evan Engram, S Andre Cisco, TE Luke Farrell, QB Mac Jones, CB Ronald Darby, G Brandon Sherff.
Key additions: HC Liam Coen, G/C Patrick Mekari, CB Jourdain Lewis, C Robert Hainsey, S Eric Murray, WR Dyami Brown, T Chuma Edoga.
Key Draft Picks: WR/CB Travis Hunter, CB Caleb Ransaw, T Wyatt Milum, LB Jack Kiser.
Summary: Loving you,… is easy cause your beautiful… Isn’t that how the song goes? Well, this is how the Jags felt when they traded up from number five to get Travis Hunter at number two. Like we know in all relationships, wait until you get to know them. The good news is that I really believe that Travis Hunter is a great guy. Now, that doesn’t mean that he is worth all that this team has given up for him. I mean, what are you doing Jags? Last year’s top wide receiver pick in Brian Thomas Jr. had one of the most phenomenal rookie years that anyone could ask for. So now you get another star that will take catches and targets away from Thomas? Especially when you need so much. The bigger problem with Travis Hunter is that if he is a true unicorn, and can play both ways, doesn’t his chance of getting injured go up as well? Last season at Colorado, Hunter had to take some plays off while on the field due to fatigue. I did see him get burned a few times on defense. Last season, the Jaguars ranked 31st in defensive EPA, and 19th respectively on offense. They needed to get more dudes in the middle to help stop the run. So the biggest change to this team was convincing new head coach Liam Coen to leave Tampa Bay and come across the limestone State to Jacksonville. I honestly do like this hire, and Coen was a huge part of Tampa Bay’s resurgence. Coaching matters greatly in this league, and quarterback Trevor Lawrence has never had a good one. I think that this might be the key to the whole season. With a little luck, the Jaguars can possibly make a run at this division. Fair warning, I lose money betting on this Jaguars team every year. I am not going to stop now as maybe it all works out on an easy schedule.
My Number: 8.21
Action – Jaguars over 7.5 wins -115 – 1 star – Jacksonville to make the playoffs +172 – .5 stars
Jacksonville Jaguars Power Rating: – -1
3. Indianapolis Colts –
Vegas win total: 7.5
2024 Wins: 8
Pythagorean Wins: 7.18
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large vs Miami, @ Pittsburgh, vs Atlanta (neutral in Berlin),
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: G Will Fries, Edge Dayo Odeyingbo, C Ryan Kelly, K Matt Gay, QB Joe Flacco, LB EJ Speed, TE Kylen Granson, DT Raekwon Davis, S Julian Blackmon.
Key additions: S Camryn Bynum, CB Charvarius Ward, QB Daniel Jones, WR Ashton Dulin, K Spencer Shrader.
Whom they drafted: TE Tyler Warren, Edge JT Tuimoloau, CB Justin Walley, QB Riley Leonard, DL Tim Smith.
Summary: What’s the old saying? If you have two quarterbacks, then you have no quarterbacks. As I stated last year, Anthony Richardson is a bust. So what do they do? They pick up another bust from the Giants in Daniel Jones. I honestly do not know what to do with this team. They seem to be wasting the talent of running back half back Jonathan Taylor, and guard Quenton Nelson. Coach Shane Steichen is on the hot seat this year, and he doesn’t have a lot of guys to dig him out. The Offensive line is mid at best, the defense should be half way decent with all of the prospects that they have picked up. The draft pick of Tyler Warren was great, but this team didn’t seem to care to use their tight ends well in the past. I do not see much of a pass rush here to get to the better quarterbacks in this league. The best hope for the Colts is for late round draft pick Riley Leonard to all of a sudden develop an NFL arm. He can at least run the ball pretty well, and if Steichen can keep this offense somewhat simple, maybe, just maybe, they can win eight games again. In saying that, purgatory is what I continue to expect to see in the future for the Colts.
My Number: 8.45
Action – No Play
Indianapolis Colt’s Power Rating: -3
4. Tennessee Titans –
Vegas win total: 5.5 juiced to the under -150
2024 Wins: 3
Pythagorean Wins: 4.66
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large games vs New England, @ Cleveland, vs New Orleans
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: OLB Harold Landry, QB Mason Rudolph, CB Chidobe Awuzie, S Quandre Diggs, K Nick Folk.
Key additions: T Dan Moore, LB Cody Barton, G Kevin Zeitler, DE Dra’Mont Jones, S Xavier Woods, DT Sebastian Joseph, WR Tyler Lockett, WR Van Jefferson, and a ton of cheap dudes.
Key Draft Picks: QB Cam Ward, Edge Oluwafemi Oladejo, S Kevin Winston, WR Chimere Dike.
Summary: I wish I could say that it pays so suck all of the time. The Titans think that they have drafted their franchise quarterback, but I am just not so sure about that. These days in college, sometimes its best to be a big fish in a small pond around a team that paid for their players in a bad football conference. Don’t get me wrong. Cam Ward “might” turn out, but he would not even have been drafted in my top four back in twenty four. In saying all this, it’s hard for the Titans to get any worse from a results perspective as they did last year. Choking away games was their montage and when the season got out of hand, this team just could not keep it close. The good news for this team is that they signed a ton of talent, and decided to spend a bunch of money this year to try and protect their quarterback. Brian Callahan will have to scheme to win a lot of tough games. Now they just need someone to throw the ball to. Who will that be? Um… Yeah. I expect this defense to be a little above average, but we may be looking at the worst offense in football.
My Number: 5.83
Action: Lean over
Tennessee Titans Power Rating: -6.5
*Blue means not signed or picked up by an NFL team
