AFC West – We all saw this division as very competitive last year. The AFC West had 2 playoff teams who were power ranked quite high. We had the Chiefs blowing many teams out without needing a good defense and the Chargers playing all around solid football. The Raiders and Broncos should be improved for the 2019 season. This year the AFC West plays the AFC South and NFC North. Not an easy feat by any means.
- Kansas City Chiefs – Vegas Win Total – 10
Schedule – Medium Hard – At large vs Baltimore and New England
Key losses: S Eric Berry, OLB Justin Houston, OLB Dee Ford, C Mitch Morse, CB Steven Nelson, TE Demetrius Harris, RB Kareem Hunt, RB Spencer Ware, (WR Tyreke Hill)
Key additions: S Tyrann Mathieu, DE Alex Okafor, OLB Damien Wilson, RB Carlos Hyde, CB Bashaud Breeland, DE Frank Clark
Whom they drafted: WR Mecole Hardman, S Juan Thornhill, DT Khalen Saunders, CB Rashad Fenton, RB Darwin Thompson, G Nick Allegretti
Summary: The Chiefs have blown up their defense and I think it was certainly the right call looking at how bad it was. Kansas City gave up 5.9 yards per play last year and one has to wonder how bad they would have been had their offense not put them way ahead in so many games. The Chiefs will certainly be downgraded a bit for losing guys like Ford, Houston, Berry and and Morse. Now this team is without Kareem Hunt like they were in the playoffs and top wide receiver Tyreke Hill who is also in a major domestic issue and may miss all or most of the 2019 season. Due to all of this bad news, the Chiefs were forced to draft Mecole Hardman, the only Hill type prospect replacement on the draft board. The trade for Frank Clark took away the need to boost the edge pass rush, but they waited too long for help at corner, safty and DT . You have to give the Chiefs props for Frank Clark but it seemed that Seattle wasn’t all that high on him so I am somewhat concerned. Kansas City lacks Linebackers, Cornerbacks, Safeties and took a hit at WR and RB. I do not see how Carlos Hyde fits into this offense. I have to take 2.5 games away for everything that they lost and give them a half game back from the draft/free agency. I am concerned for this team getting close to their 12 wins from last year so I only have them at 9.8 wins. Being that Vegas has this team at 10 wins I think they see the same things that I am seeing.
Action – No Play
2. Los Angeles Chargers – Vegas Win Total – 9.5
Schedule – Medium – At large vs Miami and Pittsburgh
Key additions: QB Tyrod Taylor, OLB Thomas Davis
Key losses: WR Tyrell Williams, DT Darius Philon, DT Corey Liuget, CB Jason Verrett, S Jahleel Addae
Whom they drafted: DT Jerry Tillery, S Nasir Adderley, OT Trey Pipkins, ILB Drue Tranquill, QB Easton Stick, OLB Emeke Egbule, DT Cortez Broughton
Summery: Tom Telesco needed defense help now to prop up the reopened playoff window with Philip Rivers. The trio of Tillery, Tranquill and Adderley fromt he draft should be able to contribute early. The Chargers were 9th Best on defense and 11th best on offense last year in total yards. They had a great year and finished the season well before getting cremated by the Patriots partly due to poor preparation. Health is going to be the biggest question for this team looking at their studs Keenan Allen and Melvin Gordon who are whom seem to be injury prone. I like the Chargers Draft and their pickup of Thomas Davis. This team is poised for a deep run and may be the team to beat after the Patriots in the AFC. I do not see the 9.5 Vegas win total as being correct since my number is 12. Playing the Dolphins will be a gift and I like it that they have them away while getting Pittsburgh at home. When I count their wins on the schedule I have at least 10.
Action – Over 9.5
3. Denver Broncos – Vegas Season Win total – 7
Schedule – Very Hard – At large games vs Cleveland and Buffalo
Key losses: QB Case Keenum, C Matt Paradis, CB Bradley Roby, LB Shaquil Barrett, TE Matt LaCosse, OT Billy Turner, LB Brandon Marshall
Key additions: Coach Vic Fangio , QB Joe Flacco, CB Kareem Jackson, CB Bryce Callahan, RT Ja’Wuan James
Whom they drafted: TE Noah Fant, OT/G Dalton Risner, QB Drew Lock, DT Dre’Mont Jones, OLB Justin Hollins, WR Juwan Winfree
Summary: Well let me start out by saying that especially as a Bear fan, I love Vic Fangio. What he did under Jim Harbaugh and in Chicago was amazing. Now in saying that being a head coach can be quite stern and different from today’s norm, I do not know if the divas in the NFL can handle that. Let’s see what as transpired in the offseason. losing their QB Case Keenum wasn’t much of a downgrade since he didn’t do so well but in his defense, he only had one year there. I also have to say that Joe Flacco isn’t much either and I think every analyst feels that way except for the boss John Elway. I do love Lindsey their running back but this team really didn’t lose or gain that much in the off-season. I do not understand drafting Noah Fant in the first round after having 3 tight ends drafted the last 2 years. The thing that I am focused on is that Von Miller is older and this team lost Center Matt Paradis, Bradley Roby and I lean to the under being that I have them at 6.2 wins.
Action – Lean under
4. Oakland Raiders – Vegas Win Total – 6.5
Schedule – Hard – Cincinnati and NY Jets
Key losses: G Kelechi Osemele, WR Jordy Nelson, QB AJ McCarron, TE Jered Cook
Key additions: WR Antonio Brown, LT Trent Brown, WR Tyrell Williams, S LaMarcus Joyner, OLB Vontaze Burfict, CB Nevin Lawson, WR J.J. Nelson, QB Mike Glennon
Whom they drafted: DE Clelin Ferrell, RB Josh Jacobs, S Johnathan Abram, CB Trayvon Mullen, DE Maxx Crosby, CB Isaiah Johnson, TE Foster Moreau, WR Hunter Renfrow, DE Quinton Bell
Summary: Well it is safe to say that the Raiders are definitely going for it this year. Too bad they have to play Kansas City and LA Chargers four total games making the schedule pretty hard. Well at least they play the Bengals I suppose. This team really didn’t lose anybody minus Jared Cook and literally went nuts in free agency. The two biggest questions for me are if Derek Carr can get the job done this year because if he can’t he is done by next year. I think Carr needs at least 3500 yards and 25 TDs to keep his job. The other question is if Clelin Ferrell, a surprise early draft pick will be the edge rusher that they need to get to the Quarterback and to stop some of the embarrassment from losing Kalil Mack. The Raiders were dead last having 13 sacks last year and Mack himself had 12.5 without playing every game. I have to give this Raiders team 2.5 wins for free agency bring them to 6 total wins for 2019. I lean to the under especially because of their schedule being hard and the fact that I do not like Derek Carr.
Action – Lean Under
