AFC West – The Superbowl champion Kansas City Chiefs came from this division and it looks to me that 2 other teams are up and coming. The AFC West plays the NFC South and the AFC East divisions which I could call medium hard. My biggest 3 questions here is if the Raiders can make that step forward to the playoffs, if Denver’s Drew Lock is really a franchise quarterback, and if Kansas City shows any signs of a Superbowl hangover. I think this division will get at least 2 playoff teams but I do not know which teams as of yet.
- Kansas City Chiefs – Vegas Win Total – 11.5 juiced to the over -145 so its 11.8
Schedule – Medium hard – At large vs Baltimore and Houston
Key losses: CB Kendall Fuller, DE Emmanuel Ogbah, G Stefen Wisniewski, T Cameron Irving, ILB Reggie Ragland, OLB Terrell Suggs, RB Leshawn McCoy
Key additions: RT Mike Remmers
Whom they drafted: RB Clyde Edwards Helaire, LB Willie Gay, OT Lucas Niange
Summary: You knew that there would be players leaving this team after their amazing 2019 year but they also lost some big names last year and it really didn’t matter. This could be a dynasty in the making with young Patrick Mahomes. In saying that, I really feel that this team was still sleeping when it came to draft day. I thought they could have gotten a great edge rusher at the 32nd position when only 1 or 2 at the time were off of the board. I also don’t know what they see in Edwards-Helaire as an NFL first round talent. He ran a 4.6 40 and was a product of an amazing system. Oh well, the core of this team is still together and I really don’t want to mess with Mahomes even though they have to go to Baltimore, Buffalo and New Orleans. All away games. Plus I expect this team to drop a home game and lose one on the road to divisional rivals. Let’s see if there will be some sort of a Superbowl hangover for 2020 and if there is, I have this team at 10.3 wins
Action – small lean to the under.
2. Denver Broncos – Vegas Season Win total – 7.5 juiced to the over -130 so 7.7
Schedule – Hard – At large games vs Pittsburgh and Tennessee
Key losses: C Conner McGovern, CB Chris Harris
Key additions: RB Melvin Gordon, TE Nick Vannett, DT Christian Covington, S Will Parks,
Whom they drafted: WR Jerry Jeudy, WR KJ Hamler, CB Michael Ojemudia, C Lloyd Cushenberry (from LSU)
Summary: This team really didn’t lose much in free agency and I feel that they also didn’t gain much either. I really like their draft, and that is rare for me, because they went with two wide receivers in the first round but still got a great center in Lloyd Cushenberry from LSU in the fourth. I also love the fact that they signed Melvin Gordon and he will add some swag to this backfield. Melvin will also most definitely have a chip on his shoulder when he plays the Chargers to prepare your fantasy teams for that. My big problem with the outlook of this team is the schedule being so hard with the Raiders improving and having to play the NFC South. Let’s face it, the big question for me is how well Drew Lock will play this year. He finished out the season well last year which is a good thing in my mind. I think 7 or 8 wins with an upside of 9 is fair.
Action – No Play
3. Las Vegas Raiders – Vegas Win Total – 7.5 juiced to the over -125 so 7.65
Schedule – Hard – Cleveland and Indianapolis
Key losses: OLB Vontez Burfict, DE Benson Mayowa, CB Daryl Worley, LB Tahir Whitehead, SS Karl Joseph
Key additions: CB Prince Amukamara, WR Nelson Agholor, ILB Corey Littleton, DE Karl Nassib, ILB Nick Kwaitkowski, QB Marcus Marriota, SS Jeff Heath, DT Malik Collins, TE Jason Witton, FS Demarious Randall,
Whom they drafted: WR Henry Ruggs, CB Damon Arnette and a bunch of head scratchers
Summary: Chuckie and the Las Vegas Raiders once again made a ton of moves in the off-season. I really like the aggressiveness that this team showed in free agency and whom they picked up. What I didn’t like was their draft. Henry Ruggs is a number 2 wide-out ype in my opinion, and I am not sure what he will do with a safety over the top ready to hit him when the ball comes into his hands. I also do not think that Hunter Renfrow or Nelson Agholor is a number one type wide receiver either. Derek Carr has showed me that he is a capable quarterback and can play well enough at times to win games as long as their defense shows up. The Raiders focused a ton on their defense this year and I think it will pay dividends. Their new Stadium is just about done in Las Vegas and it would be a shame to not have any fans in it. At the same time, I am not sure how many opposing fans were going to come to Las Vegas anyways to see their own team play when on vacation. The big problem with their season win total is that the Raiders have the 4th hardest schedule this year with tough at large games vs Cleveland and Indianapolis. I have their wins at 7.1
Action – Lean Under
4. Los Angeles Chargers – Vegas Win Total – 8
Schedule – Easy – At large vs Jacksonville and Cincinnati
Key additions: OT Bryan Bulaga, DT Linval Joseph, CB Chris Harris, OLB Nick Vigil
Key losses: QB Phillip Rivers, RB Melvin Gordon, FB Derek Watt, FS Adrian Phillips, LB Thomas Davis
Whom they drafted: QB Justin Herbert, LB Kenneth Murray, WR KJ Hill
Summery: Losing Phillip Rivers and Melvin Gordon is the elephant in the room here but I do like some of the additions that this team has picked up in Linval Joseph, Chris Harris and Nick Vigil. In saying that I do not understand this win total at 8 playing in this tough division with Tyrod Taylor at the helm here. Losing a QB like Phillip Rivers spells major transition to me and without the reps that this team needs with a new quarterback in the off-season due to Covid-19, I can’t see this team being in sync until late in the season. The chargers have two things going for them. Number one is that they have a great at large schedule vs Jacksonville and Cincinnati. Number two is that their Pythagorean win total was at 7.8 compared to having only 5 wins last year. In saying that, It is still is large downgrade from Rivers to Taylor and I think it is about 4 points in the power ratings and probably about two wins. I have the Chargers at 5.4 wins this year and will most definitely play the under 8.
Action – Under 8 wins – 2 star premium
