AFC West – This conference was the best in the AFC last year and they have a shot at being the best in the whole NFL this year depending on how the NFC west finishes out. There has been some pretty big coaching changes with the Raiders and the Broncos as well as the quarterback position with the Broncos. The AFC West plays the NFC West which isn’t good the AFC South which is good. The win totals are juiced up pretty high in this division to 39 total wins where the average is 34 so let’s see what we can decipher.
Kansas City Chiefs –
Vegas win total: 10.5
2021 Wins: 12
Pythagorean Wins: 11.01
Schedule: Hard – at large @ Tampa bay, vs Buffalo, @ Cincinnati
Schedule Last Year: Hard
Key losses: WR Tyreek Hill, CB Charvarius Ward, FS Tyrann Mathieu, WR Byron Pringle, OLB Melvin Ingram, G Austin Blythe, DT Jarran Reed, CB Mike Hughes, SS Daniel Sorensen, RB Darrel Williams, ILB Anthony Hitchens, RT Mike Remmers, G Kyle Long, DE Alex Okafor
Key additions: S Justin Reid, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster
Key draft picks: CB Trent McDuffie, Edge George Karlaftis, WR Skyy Mooore, S Bryan Cook, LB Leo Chenal, and a bunch of dudes.
Summary: How did this team blow it vs the Bengals with a with a 21-3 lead late into the 1st half? A mix of choking and the Bengals making great adjustments at the half is what happened. Anyways, I think it is time to ask the question, what happens when you pay your quarterback 500 million bucks? You lose the rest of the team. I think that the Tyreek Hill loss wasn’t really all that bad, but when you add all of the other guys, it could spin out of control. I do like how the Chiefs did get their offensive line together last year, and that will be a strong point coming into the season for 2022. I also think that this team had a pretty good draft. The big issue is that their schedule is very very hard being the worst in the league when it comes to forecasted win totals. The Chiefs have only three easy games this year against Houston, Jacksonville, and Seattle. The rest are all hard.
My Number: 9.51
Action – Lean Under
Kansas City Chiefs Power rating: 4.75
2. Los Angeles Chargers –
Vegas win total: 10 juiced to the over -130
2021 Wins: 9
Pythagorean Wins: 8.87
Schedule: Medium – at large @ Cleveland, @ Atlanta, vs Miami
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses – LB Uchenna Nwosu, DT Justin Jones, OLB Kyzir White, RT Bryan Bulaga, DT Linval Joseph, CB Chris Harris, TE Jared Cook
Key additions: Edge Khalil Mack, CB JC Jackson, DT Sebastian Joseph, DT Austin Johnson, TE Gerald Everette, S Josh Harris, ILB Kyle Van Noy, CB Bryce Callahan
Key draft picks: G Zion Johnson, S JT Woods, RB Isaiah Spiller and a bunch of dudes
Summary: The Bolts didn’t do a heck of a lot in the draft but I feel that they had a pretty good offseason in general. Shedding that bad defensive line while paying for some better players, as well as a very experienced inside linebacker in Kyle Van Noy, should help this team improve on what they were worst at in stopping the run. I think that the Bolts missing the playoffs and getting a 3rd place schedule might have been a blessing in disguise for 2022. The First half of the season has a very easy schedule. The Second half is very hard, and they finish vs Tennessee, @ Indianapolis, Vs LA Rams, and @ Denver. The strategy is simple here to me. Play the over 10 wins and hedge out later to try and hit a middle. I think that they might be around 7-2 at the half way point.
My Number: 10.44 wins
Action – Play the over and hedge back later
Las Angeles Chargers Power Rating: 2.75
3. Denver Broncos –
Vegas win total: 10 juiced to the over -120
2021 Wins: 7
Pythagorean Wins: 8.84
Schedule: Medium – at large vs NY Jets, vs @ Carolina, @ Baltimore
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: Coach Vick Vangio, QB Teddy Bridgewater, QB Drew Lock, TE Noah Fant, DE Shelby Harris, CB Kyle Fuller, ILB Kenny Young, CB Bryce Callahan, DE Stephen Weatherly, CB Michael Ford, ILB AJ Johnson, RT Bobby Massie, DT Shamar Stephen, T Cameron Fleming
Key additions: Coach Nathaniel Hacket, QB Russell Wilson, OLB Randy Gregory, DT DJ Jones, CB K’Waun Williams, G Billy Turner, G Tom Compton
Key draft picks: Edge Nick Bonitto, TE Greg Dulcich, and a bunch of meh
Summary: This team is hype city. Everyone is on the Russell Wilson train this year but nobody seems to care that this team gutted their defense, and has a brand new unproven coach who has had a few years under Matt Lefleur. Now I do like some of the pickups that they made from the 49ers system, but this defense only ranked 15th in EPA on an easier schedule last year, and today they are much more thin. I also do not like the fact that this team had no top 63 draft picks while losing Noah Fant, and Shelby Harris in that Seattle trade. This team will be under a lot of pressure now that Russell Wilson is on this team and to be quite honest with you, I feel that he cares more about his social media and his image more than winning big football games. Looking at the Bronco’s 4th place schedule, I don’t think that it did them many favors having to play at Baltimore. This total is way too high.
My number: 8.92
Action – Find a good book and play this under 10 wins
Denver Broncos Power Rating: .5
4. Las Vegas Raiders –
Vegas win total: 8.5 juiced to the over -120
2021 Wins: 10
Pythagorean Wins: 7.34
Schedule: Hard – At large @ New Orleans, vs New England, @ Pittsburgh
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: Both coaches in Rich Bisaccia and John Gruden, WR Zay Jones, QB Marcus Mariota, CB Casey Hayward, WR Henry Ruggs, DT Quinton Jefferson, CB Brandon Facyson, CB Damon Arnette, DE Carl Nassib, WR DeSean Jackson
Key additions: Coach Josh McDaniels, WR Devante Adams, Edge Chandler Jones, DE Bilal Nichols, RB Brandon Bolden, CB Anthony Averett, and a TON of low range dudes.
Key draft picks: G Dylan Parham, RB Zamir White, DL Neil Farrell Jr
Summary: Lots to decipher here with this Raiders team. Let’s start with the fact they they really overachieved last year by 2.66 games according to their Pythagorean winning percentage. That difference doesn’t bode well when their schedule is listed as hard with some very difficult at large games. Las Vegas had some very bad luck last year with John Gruden getting singled out, and then ousted by the NFL with a nice assist from the mainstream media. Let’s not forget the whole Henry Ruggs and Damon Arnette situation gutting the team of some of their key starters. Here is the good news. The Raiders last year did continue to overachieve the last half of their season without Ruggs and Arnette, meaning that the loss might not be quite as hard as it looks on paper. I also really like them getting Devante Adams re-united with his college quarterback in Derek Carr. I also like the head coach hire of Josh McDaniels, and I think that his experience failing as a head coach in Denver a few years back might actually help him here. I don’t think that the Raiders get to 8 or 9 wins with this schedule this year, but I will be on them at times when they are a dog and I think that they will win some surprising games this year.
My Number: 7.24 wins
Action – Lean Under
Las Vegas Raiders Power Rating: 0
Bonus Play: Play the Chiefs at +175 and the Chargers at +250 to win the division. You are pretty much getting blended odds of about +112.5 for the top 2 teams.
