AFC West – The AFC West was supposed to be the best in football before the 2022 season got started, but shorty after, we found that the Broncos, as we predicted, had a ton of problems. The Raiders…. were still the Raiders. I guess some things never change. One thing that certainly hasn’t changed is the top of this division with the Mahomes to Kelce connection. This could go down in the legendary books someday with Montana to Rice. The Chargers should be a good team if somehow they could get out of their own way. Denver’s expectations should be more realistic, and the Raiders will have the pressure of following the Las Vegas Knights path to a championship. The AFC West plays the NFC North which I would call pretty fortunate, and the AFC East which should be rough. Let’s see how it’s looking for the boys out west!
Divisional Odds: Chiefs -165 – Chargers +340 – Broncos +550 – Raiders +1100
Kansas City Chiefs –
Vegas win total: 11.5 juiced to the over -120
2022 Wins: 14
Pythagorean Wins: 11.71
Schedule: Hard – at large @ Jacksonville, vs Philadelphia, vs Cincinnati
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: T Orlando Brown, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, T Andrew Wylie, S Juan Thornhill, DE Charles Omenihu, DT Khalen Saunders, DE Frank Clark, WR Mecole Hardman, DE Carlos Dunlap
Key additions: RT Jawaan Taylor, LT Donavan Smith, LB Drue Tranquill, S Mike Edwards, G Nick Allegretti, QB Blain Gabbert
Key draft picks: Edge Felix Anudike-Uzomah, WR Rashee Rice, T Wanya Morris
Summary: When you are a super bowl champion and you pay your quarterback, you lose a lot of players to free agency. Now is that a bad thing for the Chiefs? Maybe somewhat, but I can certainly attest that you can put a bunch of mediocre guys on the Chiefs with only Mahomes and Kelce, and this team will be one of the best in the league. it looks like a lot of teams decided to pay some former Chiefs players this year in free agency. Whether teams should flock to guys on super bowl rosters is very debatable for another time, but now let’s see what’s going on for 2023. The skill positions really shouldn’t miss a beat with guys like Kadarius Tony and MVS at the receiver positions. The offensive line will be reworked which could be a bit rough in the beginning of the season, similar to what we saw last year with the Bengals. The defensive front looks pretty healthy with Chris Jones stuffing up the middle to allow LB Nick Bolton freed up to make some tackles. The Chiefs defense was just very average last year and were one of the worst in the Red Zone. Now average actually means below average when your offense is so great due to the fact that the primary formation on defense was expecting pass and the double-wide prevent. It would be interesting to see how this defense really performs if the Chiefs are not putting up some points. Now this is a very very big if because the Chiefs didn’t lose a game by more than four points all last season. I think that this team should be the tops of the division, but I also think they would be fine to just make the playoffs if all goes bad being that this is a honeymoon type of year.
My Number: 9.51
Action Under 11.5 wins
Kansas City Chiefs Power rating: 4.75
2. Los Angeles Chargers –
Vegas win total: 9.5
2022 Wins: 10
Pythagorean Wins: 8.42
Schedule: Hard – at large @ Tennessee, vs Dallas, vs Baltimore
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses – G Matt Feiler, LB Troy Reeder, ILB Kyle Van Noy, CB Bryce Callahan
Key additions: OC Kellen Moore, ILB Eric Kendricks, DT Nick Williams,
Key draft picks: WR Quentin Johnson, Edge Tuli Tuipulotu, LB Daiyan Henley, WR Derius Davis, QB Max Duggan
Summary: This Chargers team is very hard to figure out. If you remember back in 2021, head coach Brandon Staley was very aggressive and it was sometimes too much at the wrong times. For 2022 season, Staley wasn’t aggressive enough and it showed during that playoff 2nd half debacle against the Jaguars. The Bolts have a ton of talent, yet also make bunch of boneheaded mistakes, and I am not even sure new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore will make much of a better impact being that Moore has also made some strange play-calling mistakes back in Dallas. I also wonder why this team drafted a bunch of TCU wide receivers when instead their biggest weakness was against the run. The Bolts also grabbed Horned Frogs quarterback Max Duggan late in the draft. Maybe they are closet Frog fans, but I guess they could have done worse. On offense, this team should still be solid as long as Austin Ekeler doesn’t pull any more contract shenanigans. The defense is what really worries me ranking 27th in opponent rushing yards and 29th in opponent rush EPA. Going with wide receivers rather than three techniques and linebackers in the draft is a for sure head scratcher. This team over-achieved greatly last year, and I think that they could regress due to bone headed coaching and I am not too optimistic on this team, but let’s see if Brandon Staley has learned from his huge game managing mistakes. For the time being, I am taking the under in their win totals.
My Number: 8.21 wins
Action – Play the under
Las Angeles Chargers Power Rating: 1.25
3. Denver Broncos –
Vegas win total: 8.5
2022 Wins: 5
Pythagorean Wins: 6.63
Schedule: Medium Hard – at large vs Washington, vs Cleveland, @Houston
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: Coach Nathanial Hackett, DT Dre’Mont Jones, T Calvin Anderson, LB Jake Martin, RB Mike Boone, DE DeShawn Williams, CB Ronald Darby, G Tom Compton
Key additions: Coach Sean Payton, OC Joe Lombardi, DC Vance Joseph, RT Mike McGlinchey, G Ben Powers, DE Zach Allen, QB Jared Stidham, RB Samaje Perine, TE Chris Manhertz, CB Temon Smith, DE Frank Clark and a ton of dudes
Key draft picks: WR Marvin Mims, LB Drew Sanders, CB Riley Moss, C Alex Forsyth
Summary: The 2022 Denver Broncos may have then the most disappointing and over-hyped football team from last year with apologies to the Colts. They only scored over 20 points five different times last season. Sean Payton moves in to take over an already amazing defense with a lot of work to do on offense. Former Saints offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi comes in with some work to do, but the big question is if he can revive team leader and diva Russell Wilson. The good news is that he has a lot of talent to work with. I imagine that this offense will go back to it’s Sean Payton type roots of pounding the football with guys like Javante Williams when he comes back fully healthy. Javante may not start right away and will have to be eased back into the starting lineup, while newly acquired Samaje Perine who can be a bruiser when needed. We should see plenty of check downs as well to the running back, and let’s hope Wilson is able to get the ball past those massive defensive ends with their hands up in the air. I also hope that quarterback coach Davis Webb is able to re-instill some confidence in Wilson utilizing his old scrambling abilities. The defense shouldn’t miss a beat this year and they might even get better with defensive coordinator and former Broncos Coach Vance Joseph back in the Mile high city. Denver’s defense was a little weak last year against the run, but they are betting that newly acquired defensive ends Frank Clark and Zach Allen can come into help stop some of that. Denver was the most injured team of 2022, so I expect some positive regression in that department.
My number: 8.68
Action – Lean over
Denver Broncos Power Rating: -2
4. Las Vegas Raiders –
Vegas win total: 6.5 juiced to the over -120
2022 Wins: 6
Pythagorean Wins: 8.32
Schedule: Hard – at large vs Pittsburgh, vs New York Giants, @ Indianapolis
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: QB Derek Carr, TE Darrin Waller, TE Forster Moreau, QB Jarrett Stidham, CB Rock Ya-sin, DT Andrew Billings, ILB Denzel Perryman, DE Clelin Ferrell, CB Anthony Averett
Key additions: QB Jimmy Garoppolo, WR Jacobi Meyers, S Marcus Epps, LB Robert Spillane, CB Brandon Facyson, QB Brian Hoyer, TE Austin Hooper and a bunch of second rate dudes.
Key draft picks: Edge Tyree Wilson, TE Michael Mayer, DL Bryon Young, WR Tre Tucker, QB Aidan O’Connell
Summary: The Las Vegas Raiders went from the second most over-achieving team of 2021 to the most under-achieving team for 2022. Their Pythagorean win total is 8.32 compared to their six actual wins. Being in the Chiefs division certainly doesn’t help, but now the pressure should be on Josh McDaniels to get this team to the playoffs. Let’s talk about the offense. There is no more of an example of robbing Peter to pay Paul than getting rid of Derek Carr and bringing on Jimmy G. Both quarterbacks have similar skills, but I also have to wonder if Jimmy G just benefitted from being in great systems over the years, more than he is a good quarterback. If Kyle Shanahan doesn’t want him, then something seems wrong. Earlier this year, the Raiders traded stud TE Darren Waller just to draft another stud in Michael Mayer. They picked up former Patriot Jacoby Meyers to compliment Devonte Adams while keeping Hunter Renfrow in the slot. The Raiders offensive line ranks number twelve in Lineups. Can Josh McDaniels put it all together this year? I tend to think not. He is a good play caller, but not a great coach. On the other side of the ball, the Raiders were brutal against the pass ranking 31st in opponent drop-back EPA. They drafter Tyree Wilson from Texas Tech to try and speed up that pass rush that ranked 30th in sacks. That was a good move at least. They also signed guys like Marcus Epps and Brandon Facyson to help the secondary. Their defensive line should be average at best while their linebacking crew remains very untested. I am not sure if I trust DC Patrick Graham all that much this year, and I also think that there will be a lot of wait and see for this Raiders team. I have the Raiders a little below average until they can prove me wrong. Their hard schedule could be their undoing for the 2023 season.
My Number: 6.66 wins
Action – No Play
Las Vegas Raiders Power Rating: -1.5
*Blue means not signed or picked up by an NFL team
