AFC West – The AFC West last year was an AFC mess. Did the Chiefs win the Super Bowl? Yes, but they definitely did not look like a super bowl team during the regular season and they certainly had a lot of situational help along the way. The Denver Broncos were toast as soon as Russell Wilson said the words, “giddy up”. The Raiders were an utter embarrassment as they let their coach go during the regular season. The Chargers had about as much electricity as rubbing a balloon on your head and sticking it to your shirt. For 2024, there are a lot of big changes including two new coaches, two new starting quarterbacks (most likely), and a bunch of hope. This division plays the AFC North and the NFC South for their at large which I would call pretty medium. Basically the hardest and the easiest divisions. The Chiefs will certainly be the focal point looking for the three-peat. Let’s see how all of this pans out.
Divisional Odds: Chiefs -230 – Chargers +320 – Raiders +900 – Broncos +1800
Kansas City Chiefs –
Vegas win total: 11.5
2023 Wins: 11
Pythagorean Wins: 11.42
Schedule: Medium Easy – at large @ San Francisco, @ Buffalo, vs Houston
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: CB L’Jarious Sneed, G Nick Allegretti, ILB Willy Gay, S Mike Edwards, WR Marqez Valdez-Scantling, T Donavan Smith
Key additions: WR Marquise Brown, QB Carson Wentz
Key draft picks: WR Xavier Worthy, T Kingsley Suamataia, C Hunter Nourzad, S Jaden Hicks
Summary: The Chiefs have proven to be the most dangerous team in football. I am not talking about the regular season. I am talking about the playoffs to the Super Bowl. Even if this team just limps in to the playoffs with a wildcard, they should be the ones favored to win it all. Patrick Mahomes is maybe the only quarterback worth paying a boat load of money, and he has proven that when they got rid of key guys in every offseason. Now the Chiefs had to get rid of their second best defender in cornerback L’Jarious Sneed. They let wide receiver MVS walk after making a key clutch catch against the Ravens to advance to the Super Bowl. Will it work out again this year? Well, maybe not so much in the regular season. Last year, the Chiefs only finished 11th in offensive EPA and 5th on defense. They were that care-free super bowl champion that showed up only when it counted. May they do that again this year? I am going to say probably, but the fact that they were allowed to pick the fastest man in the draft at wide receiver really really scares me for the other teams that they may be facing. In saying that, I still think that the Chiefs lost a lot in the offseason with defensive guys like Snead, Gay and Edwards taking the walk. They still should be very solid on defense, but the Chiefs may take a minute to get back into the swing of things. I also must say that the division has gotten harder with Jim Harbaugh lurking out west. On a positive note, Kansas City has a nice easy schedule for 2024 with a +5 net rest advantage against opponents. I think the Chiefs will be that team that wins hard fought games that they should be blowing opponents away a little too close for comfort. They will have a few stinkers and some massive comebacks in Mahomes type fashion.
My Number: 10.46
Action Under 11.5 wins
Kansas City Chiefs Power rating: 6
- Los Angeles Chargers –
Vegas win total: 8.5 juiced to the over -155
2023 Wins: 5
Pythagorean Wins: 7.05
Schedule: Easy – at large @ Arizona, vs Tennessee, @ New England
Schedule Last Year: Hard
Key losses – Coach Brandon Staley, OC Kellen Moore, LB Kenneth Murray, TE Gerald Everette, WR Mike Williams, RB Austin Ekeler, CB Michael Davis, LB Eric Kendricks, C Corey Linsley
Key additions: Coach Jim Harbaugh, OC Greg Roman, RB Gus Edwards, TE Will Dissly, OLB Bud Dupree, CB Kristian Fulton, WR DJ Chark, LB Denzel Perriman
Key draft picks: T Joe Alt, TE Ladd McConkey, LB Junior Colson, DT Justin Eboigbe
Summary: I was bearish on the Chargers last year predicting eight wins, but even I didn’t see this team winning only five games without an injury to their quarterback. Anyways, now the men take over as Jim Harbaugh takes over the team to change the culture of the program. So does that mean this is going to happen overnight? No, probably not, but it certainly wouldn’t shock me as I have the utmost respect for Harbaugh. The problem is that this team literally turned over everyone with a pulse on this team minus quarterback Justin Herbert and edge rushers Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack. The good news for the Chargers is that they already have some decent guys in the trenches which will be anchored by the top offensive lineman in the draft in Joe Alt. Another great thing is that this schedule is very very workable even with a -10 net days rest. I think that Jim could actually shock some people and get this team into the playoffs his very first year. The problem is that I do not like the price of that at only +110 as the market is already a bit too high on this team. Gonna go shopping for a better number.
My Number: 9.77 wins
Action – None
Las Angeles Chargers Power Rating: -2
- Las Vegas Raiders –
Vegas win total: 6.5 juiced to the over -130
2023 Wins: 8
Pythagorean Wins: 8.65
Schedule: Medium Hard – at large @ LA Rams, vs Miami, @ Jacksonville
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: Coach Josh McDaniels, RB Josh Jacobs, DE Bilal Nichols, T Jermain Eluemunor, CB Emik Robertson, QB Jimmy Garoppolo, TE Austin Hooper, DT Jerry Tillery, WR Hunter Renfrow, QB Brian Hoyer
Key additions: Coach Antonio Pierce, OC Luke Getsy, DT Christian Wilkins, QB Garner Minshew, TE Harrison Bryant, DT Josh Jenkins
Key draft picks: TE Brock Bowers, C Jackson Powers-Johnson, T Delmar Glaze, CB Decamerion Richardson, LB Tommy Eichenberg
Summary: Now that the Raiders team did everything that they could to save interim coach Antonio Pierce’s job, many of them got the chopping block. Thanks guys! Anyways, the Raiders bring in the mustache Gardner Minshew to try and make a push this year in the AFC West. As much as I like the guy, he isn’t a starting quarterback in the league. Many folks including myself think that the Raiders should have made a move to trade up for a real quarterback in the draft, but I myself have soured on that lately. Maybe Aiden O’Connell takes a big step forward. He isn’t the most mobile guy, but he does throw a decent ball. The Raiders defense is the thing that kept them in some big games, and their ranking shot up all the way to 9th in EPA. The offense ranking 26th in EPA was the reason that Josh McDaniels had gotten fired. The big question is if Luke Getsy is a good OC or not. It’s hard to tell that from the last few years working with a guy who can’t read a defense like Justin Fields, but it seemed that the market was much quicker to scoop up Luke Getsy than to sign Justin Fields to their roster as a quarterback. Looking at the Raiders last few games, they played quite well blowing out the Chargers and the Broncos, while beating the Chiefs without having to complete a pass for the last three quarters. I think the Raiders could be a little dangerous this year.
My Number: 7.58 wins
Action – Over 6.5 wins for 1 star
Las Vegas Raiders Power Rating: -3
- Denver Broncos –
Vegas win total: 5.5 juiced to the under -120
2023 Wins: 8
Pythagorean Wins: 6.77
Schedule: Hard – at large @ Seattle, @ NY Jets, vs Indianapolis
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: QB Russell Wilson, C Lloyd Cushenberry, LB Josey Jewell, DT Johnathan Harris, S Justin Simmons, DE Mike Purcell, CB K’Waun Phllips, T Cameron Fleming
Key additions: S Brandon Jones, WR Josh Reynolds, DE Malcom Roach, LB Cody Barton
Key draft picks: QB Bo Nix, Edge Jonah Elliss, WR Troy Franklin, CB Kris Abrams-Draine, RB Audric Estime
Summary: Imagine hating your quarterback that you just payed 1.5 years ago so much that you just give him away while paying his salary. This is the Sean Payton Denver Broncos. The big question to me is if this is really Russell Wilson’s fault? The Broncos ranked 20th in dropback EPA and 17th in rush EPA. I mean, it isn’t great but Russell also didn’t have a bunch of good non-injured skill guys to really throw the ball to. The real ugly spot was the defense who finished ranking 25th in EPA. I will say that they did improve in the middle of the season, but then faltered again down the stretch. The really strange thing last year to bettors was how Denver beat the Packers, Chiefs, Bills, Vikings and Browns mid-season, almost giving them a false sense of hope. Denver told Russell Wilson to restructure his deal or be benched. I thought that was very strange thing to do during the regular season. Turns out that Wilson had some injury clauses that would guarantee him a lot of money had he gotten injured at the end of 2023. Anyways, the Bo Nix era has began, and I am higher on this quarterback than most of the market. Maybe Jared Stidham starts the first few games, but I just do not see him lasting that long. Denver didn’t get much help in free agency or the draft due to that large Wilson contract, so I have to assume that this team is in for some trouble. The schedule is quite rough this year as this team is also second worst in net rest days at -17. I lean under the win total, but I have a lot of respect for Sean Payton and probably wouldn’t bet under 5.5.
My number: 4.88
Action – Lean under
Denver Broncos Power Rating: -6
*Blue means not signed or picked up by an NFL team
Best Bet: Chiefs under 11.5 wins -115 – 1 star and Raiders over 6.5 wins -130 for 1 star
