I am off to a 4-1 start to the CFB Season.
CFB Pick
Fresno St at UCLA 10:45 pm Saturday
Pick: Fresno St +12 (-120) 1 unit
I bought this from 11.5 to 12 earlier on Friday. Line has moved to 11. You may wait and see if this gets back to 11.5.
Fresno gave Oregon a scare a couple of weeks ago at Oregon, leading the Ducks in the 4th quarter before finally losing.
I like Fresno’s QB, Haener. He is completing over 70 % of his passes. The team can run the ball and I think they can keep it close with UCLA.
UCLA will bring in a strong run attack but I do not like their QB, Dorian Thompson-Robinson. I don’t think he is a very good passer.
Fresno knows they will need to focus on the Bruins run game. I think they can keep up with UCLA.
CFB Pick
Florida St at Wake Forest 3:30 pm
Pick: Florida St +5 1 unit
Everyone is down on Florida State after their 2nd straight loss at the end of a game, last week it was to Jacksonville St.
But Florida State was coming off a heartbreaking loss to Notre Dame, the get Jacksonville St on a short week and for FSU you go from Notre Dame to Jacksonville St, that is a big let down, they probably were not as up for this game as you would have liked them to have been.
Florida St can run the football. Jashaun Corbin and Trayshaun Ward are running for 8.4 and 6.4 yards per carry respectively. The Seminoles struggled in the pass game last week but keep in mind, Mckenzie Milton had not played football in 3 years before he led that comeback against Notre Dame. I still feel he will get the job done.
FSU’s defense held Notre Dame to 1.9 ypc and have recorded 5 sacks in each of their first 2 games.
Wake has a good offensive unit, they return most of their starters on offense and defense from last year but those starters also a defense that allowed over 30 points per game.
I think FSU is going to be able to score here.
I don’t see Wake pulling away.
FSU 1 unit
CFB Pick
Northwestern at Duke 4 pm
Pick: Duke +3 1 unit
Northwestern’s offense only went for 275 yards last week at home to Indiana St and on defense gave up over 500 yards at home in a 17 point loss to Michigan St in Week 1. This is a team that returns only 4 starters from last years defense that allowed 16 ppg
I don’t love Duke’s defense but I like their offense and I think they will be able to score with their great HB Mateo Durant who has already rushed for 6 TD this season. Their QB Gunnar Holmberg is completing 71 % of his passes.
Watch for Duke’s special teams to make a play in this game. They nearly blocked 3 punts last week and also pulled off a successful onside kick early in the 2nd quarter. This is an aggressive bunch.
Right now, both teams look likely to finish in the lower half of their respective leagues this season but I am not sure Northwestern should be going on the road here giving a FG to Duke.
Northwestern
5-11-2 their last 18 as a favorite2-6 ATS their last 8 following a loss
1-4 ATS last 5 non conference games
Duke
12-5-1 last 18 as a home dog
I am going to take Duke +3 at home for 1 unit
CFB Pick
Purdue at Notre Dame 2:30 pm
Pick: Purdue +7.5 1 unit
Purdue 5-1 ATS last 6 vs team with winning recordPurdue 17-5 ATS last 22 as an underdogPurdue 19-6-2 ATS last 27 as a road underdogPurdue 15-5-2 ATS in road games vs team with winning record
Notre Dame 0-4 ATS last 4 as a favoriteNotre Dame 1-5 ATS last 6 home games
Notre Dame lost a lot on offense off of the teams we have seen them field over the past couple of seasons.
They have 4 new starters on the offensive line after losing 3 of last year’s linemen to the draft. Thus, the Irish are running for less than 3 yards per carry this season and they have allowed 10 sacks over the first 2 games
On defense, Notre Dame is allowing 5 yards per carry.
Now, Horvath is out for Purdue at HB. King Doerue and Dylan Downing, red shirt freshman from Carmel, who both have runs for 19 yards or more already this season, and will look to pick up the load in the run game with Horvath out.
Purdue is getting really good QB play from Jack Plummer who has completed 73% of his passes through the first 2 games. David Bell and TE Payne have 3 TD each and averaging over 15 yards per catch.
The Boilers are +27 in net first downs this season so far
I like what I have seen with Purdue and I think what is happening with Notre Dame is expected with everything they lost from last year.
I am going with the Boilers here at +7.5
