Coming off a 3-0, +3u day in the MLB, I now sit at 7-3-1, +4.58u on the season. I’m rolling with 3 more plays tonight looking to keep things rolling. If you’d like to receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Phillies F5 -0.5(-120) vs Mets–5:45 PM CT
Phillies SP Ranger Suarez is coming off an incredible 2021 season that saw him post a 1.36 ERA and 1.00 WHIP across 106 innings. The lefty gave up just 0.3 HR/9 innings despite pitching in one of the toughest ballparks in the league. The Mets ranked in the bottom 5 in OPS against lefties on the road last season, and in 4.2 innings against Suarez, New York pushed across just 1 run. Mets SP Taijuan Walker got off to a solid start last season but really crumbled as the season went along. On the road, he posted an ugly 5.82 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and gave up almost 2 HR/9. The Phillies now have one of the best lineups in baseball after adding Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos to an already solid core, and 3 of the first 4 guys in the Phillies order have an OPS above 1.000 in their career matchups with Walker(Schwarber is 5/10 with 5 HR’s). I think the Phillies take a lead into the back half of this game.
*MLB(1u): Giants F5 -0.5(-110) vs Padres–8:45 PM CT
*MLB(0.5u): Giants -1.5(+140) vs Padres–8:45 PM CT
Giants SP Alex Wood was very consistent pitching at Oracle Park last season. While the 3.54 ERA might not jump out at you, Wood recorded a 1.04 WHIP and allowed just 0.8 HR/9 in his home ballpark. The Padres ranked just 19th in OPS against lefties on the road last season and are without their star in Fernando Tatis. Facing a soft-throwing lefty that limits the long ball, the Padres are unlikely to be able to take advantage of a strong wind that will be blowing upwards of 20 mph out to right field. On the other hand, the Giants have a predominantly left-handed lineup that will be licking their chops at tonight’s matchup. Nick Martinez will start for San Diego tonight, which will mark his first MLB appearance since 2017. Good for him and all, but he’s getting this opportunity only because Blake Snell and Mike Clevinger are on the IL; it certainly isn’t because of his career numbers(4.77 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and and 2.1 HR/9). Regardless, this is a clear mismatch, and when you add on that the Giants are better built to take advantage of tonight’s hitting conditions, I think this could be a route. I’ll play Giants F5 -0.5 as the bigger play, but I also want some action on the -1.5 at the +140 price for 0.5u.
