A 1-0 Tuesday brings me to 8-6-1, +2.78u in the young MLB season. I have 1 MLB play going this afternoon in addition to an NBA play I like later tonight. If you’d like to receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Padres F5 ML(+115) @ Giants–2:45 PM CT
Padres SP Sean Manaea is coming off a 7 inning, 0 hit performance in Arizona. While this will be a tougher matchup, the Giants struggled mightily against lefties last season, ranking just 26th in OPS vs lefties at home. Manaea is no stranger to this Giants lineup or the Bay Area as he spent six seasons in Oakland, and I believe he has developed into an All-Star caliber arm. It’s really tough going against Giants SP Logan Webb; he had a sub-2.00 ERA at home last season and got the job done for us just last week. However, the Padres were one of the only lineups able to consistently crack Webb last year, tallying 11 runs across 17 innings. 3 guys in the SD order have an OPS above 1.000 against Webb, and adding Luke Voit in the middle of that order makes them even more dangerous. The F5 Under at 3.5 is too low for me to play, but I think this F5 line should be much closer to a pick-em given Manaea’s presence paired with the Giants’ inability to slug against lefties. I’ll take the +115 and back the Padres early in this game.
*NBA(1u): Spurs +5.5(-110) @ Pelicans–8:30 PM CT
I respect the Pelicans for going out and getting CJ McCollum, but I believe that move has overvalued them in the betting markets. Brandon Ingram should return for the Pelicans in this game, but even he is a bit overvalued in my mind(just a 32.7% 3pt shooter). However, my biggest concern for the Pelicans is their defense, which ranks just 20th in defensive efficiency. San Antonio is a fast-paced offense that has improved mightily throughout the course of this season, but they don’t get enough credit for the way they defend. I’m not the biggest Gregg Popovich guy(that’s another conversation), but his system undoubtedly works at this time of the year. Meanwhile, the verdict is still out on whether first-year HC Willie Green will work out in New Orleans. The Spurs found themselves in this play-in tournament last year and put up a valiant effort in a 4-point loss at Memphis. When you combine that experience in this weird spot with the fact the Spurs went 3-1 against the Pelicans this year, do you really think they’re going to blink first tonight? I think there’s a good chance the Spurs get over the hump and win this game outright, but given McCollum is still the best player on the floor, I’ll opt to take the 5.5 points.
