An 0-2 Monday drops me to 10-12-1, -1.67u on the young MLB season. We’ve got a full slate here on Tuesday, and I like 4 plays that I’m expecting can get us back in the green. If you’d like to receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Giants GM1 ML(+102) @ Mets–2:10 PM CT
The Giants and Mets will square off twice today, and I am looking towards the Giants in Game 1 of the doubleheader. Giants SP Alex Cobb had a solid season debut against the Padres, striking out 10 over 5 innings of work. Cobb allowed less than 0.5 HR/9 last season and will have the luxury of pitching at Citi Field today. The Mets lineup is in pretty good current form, but they’ve also had the luxury of playing the lowly Nationals and Diamondbacks early in the season. Mets SP Tylor Megill has yet to allow a run through 2 starts this season, but this will be his toughest matchup to date. The Giants raked right-handed pitching last season and currently rank 5th in OPS vs righties to start off this season. Megill allowed almost 2 HR/9 last year; while he should improve that mark, I also don’t think he’s going to continue to look like Cy Young out there. The Mets might have the more well-known names in their bullpen, but the Giants had better numbers in 2021 and have carried that over into the early parts of the 2022 season. I don’t think we should be getting a plus-number with the Giants in this spot; I like them to take Game 1 of this DH.
*MLB(1u): Red Sox F5 TT OVER 2.5(-115) vs Blue Jays–6:10 PM CT
After starting the season off with 7 straight road games, the Red Sox will enjoy their 5th straight home game tonight against the Jays. We saw mixed results from them against the Twins this weekend, but they’re getting a very advantageous matchup facing Yusei Kikuchi today. Kukuchi struggled for 3 straight seasons pitching in Seattle, and his season-opening start against the Yankees doesn’t inspire much confidence that he’s going to fit well in the AL East. Kikuchi is known for untimely walks and being unable to get out of innings, which you’re just not going to get away with facing this Red Sox lineup. Kikuchi also allowed 1.55 HR/9 last season and will be pitching at hitter-friendly Fenway Park today. I expect there to be ample opportunity for this Red Sox lineup to tee off early in this game; I think the -115 price on this standard F5 TT is more than fair.
*MLB(0.69u): Cardinals F5 -0.5(+145) @ Marlins–5:40 PM CT
Marlins SP Jesus Luzardo looked incredible in his last start against the Angels, allowing just 2 hits over 5 innings and striking out 12. While that’s impressive, we’ve yet to see Luzardo carry success over from start to start throughout his career. Over 171 career innings, Luzardo has a 5.25 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. The Cardinals ranked 1st in OPS vs lefties last season and hold that same ranking early in this season, so this is a very tough matchup for a young pitcher who has “blowup inning” potential written all over him. On the other hand, Adam Wainwright is about as consistent of a pitcher as you’re going to find across the league. While he’s known to pitch better at home, Wainwright’s ability to limit hard contact should play very well in Marlins Park. He also has good numbers against the few hitters in this Marlins lineup that I would be worried about. I know the Marlins had a good weekend in their series with the Phillies and that Luzardo is coming off an incredible start, but I’m willing to back the Cardinals early in this game at a +145 price given Luzardo’s inconsistent history. I’ll risk 0.69u to win the full 1u.
*MLB(0.65u): Mariners -1.5(+155) vs Rangers–8:40 PM CT
2021 AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray will make his home debut for Seattle tonight. While his last start against the lefty-mashing White Sox didn’t pan out the way he would’ve wanted, this figures to be a very manageable matchup. The Rangers’ offense has actually performed better than you would expect this year, yet the team is still 2-7. The Rangers pitching staff holds an ERA at 6.19, far and away the worst in the league. Jon Gray will be tasked with holding down a Mariners lineup that recorded 11-run and 7-run performances against the Astros in blowout wins over the weekend. Gray is a power-arm that has just never been able to put his skillset together, and he’ll face a Mariners lineup that’s filled with discipline from top-to-bottom. The Mariners also hold the MAJOR bullpen advantage and are coming off a day of rest, which makes me even more willing to lay the 1.5 at this price. I’ll back a Mariners team that’s in good current form and trust the Mariners pitching over the laughably poor Rangers staff.
