A 2-2 Tuesday puts me at 12-14-1, -1.82u in the early parts of this MLB season. Today, I’m taking a look towards 2 plays in the same game and playing on what is some unjustifiable pricing by the oddsmakers. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Athletics TT OVER 4.5(+118) vs Orioles–5:07 PM CT
*MLB(0.5u): Athletics -1.5(+160) vs Orioles–5:07 PM CT
Orioles SP Jordan Lyles is coming off a solid start against the Yankees, but this price is showing him FAR too much love. Over 12 MLB seasons, the righty holds a 5.21 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. Lyles allowed 1.9 HR/9 last season and mirrored many of his career numbers(which are well below league average). In one start in Oakland last season, Lyles allowed 6 runs in 5.1 IP, yielding 10 hits and 4 walks in the process. I am aware that this Athletics lineup look much different than it did last season, but I also don’t think they have fallen off as much as the +118 price on a standard team total would indicate. As insurance, it is worth noting that Baltimore’s bullpen held a 5.71 ERA and 1.46 WHIP last season, far and away the worst numbers throughout the league. I know they’ve held up OK up this point in the season, but that is NOT sustainable. It also helps that the wind will be blowing 15 mph out to CF throughout today’s game. I will absolutely fade one of the worst pitching staffs in the league at this price.
Athletics SP Daulton Jefferies should have a pretty manageable matchup facing this Orioles lineup. While Baltimore can be feisty against lefties, they are one of the worst lineups in the league facing right-handed pitching. I worry a little bit about the A’s bullpen closing out this game given they’ve been used a lot over these past 2 nights and have regressed significantly since last season, but I still think getting +160 to fade the Orioles is too good to pass up. Athletics TT is the stronger play, but I will also sprinkle 0.5u on Athletics -1.5 and an unjustifiable price.
