A winner on the Cardinals TT UNDER last night gave us a profitable start to the week and made it 4 straight winning days! I’ve got 4 MLB plays for tonight looking to keep things rolling and extend the win streak to 5 days. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Phillies -1.5(+130) vs Rockies–5:45 PM CT
The Rockies are typically a team you want to bet on at home and fade on the road, so getting +130 to fade them is enticing to begin with. Phillies SP Zach Eflin is a reliable righty who just held this Rocks lineup to 2 ER through 5.2 IP in a much tougher park last week. Eflin allowed less than 1 HR/9 at home last season, and the Rockies ranked 29th in OPS vs righties on the road. The back end of the Phillies bullpen is fairly fresh as well. Rockies SP German Marquez has actually become accustomed to pitching at Coors Field and has seen his numbers slip up on the road. Last season, the righty held an abysmal 5.40 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and 1.4 HR/9 away from home. The Phillies lineup erupted for 8 runs last night and will be playing in their 5th straight home game tonight. When they faced Marquez in Colorado last week, they slugged 3 home runs. The Rockies bullpen started the year off strong, but as expected, they have fallen all the way to dead last in WHIP after a few rough performances. The Rockies have started off this season strong on the road, but I think last night was a glimpse into what’s to come. I’ll lay the 1.5 with the Phils at what I’d consider a great price.
*MLB(1u): White Sox F5 TT OVER 2.5(-115) vs Royals–6:10 PM CT
The White Sox(6-9) have gotten off to a slow start this season, but the one constant that has remained true is that this team straight up MASHES lefties. While the sample size is small this year, Chicago ranks 2nd in OPS against lefties and will face an arm tonight that they have torn up in the past. Royals SP Daniel Lynch coughed up 8 runs in the 1st inning of a game against the Sox last year and allowed 6 runs through 2.2 IP in another. There will also be a strong wind blowing out to dead center in a ballpark that already favors hitters considerably. At a fair -115 price, I will back an offense early in this game that has excelled against left-handed pitching for a large stretch of time.
*MLB(1u): Guardians/Angels OVER 7.5(+105)–8:38 PM CT
Angels SP Patrick Sandoval has allowed 0 runs through 2 starts, but a 1.50 WHIP indicates that he’s caught quite a few breaks up to this point in the season. Sandoval walked 4.5 batters/9 innings at Angel Stadium last year, a formula that is simply not conducive for success. The Guardians lineup has fallen back down to Earth after a hot start offensively, but they are still more than capable of taking advantage of a pitcher who is bound to regress. The Angels have also been in save situations each of the past 2 games, so their bullpen isn’t on ideal rest entering tonight’s matchup. Similarly to Sandoval, Guardians SP Triston McKenzie has a history of control issues(4.35 BB/9 in 2021). He walked 4 in his last start against the White Sox, and now he’ll receive his toughest task of the season facing the Angels lineup in their home stadium. The Angels are currently tied for 2nd in OPS vs righties this season and rank among the top of the league in nearly every other offensive category. The Guardians have also had to dig deep into their bullpen over their last 4 games and won’t be at their freshest tonight either. To top it all off, there will be a 10 mph wind blowing out to LF in sunny Los Angeles during tonight’s game. I think this number is wrong to begin with, but the fact we’re getting plus-money on this play was enough for me to hop on board. Given the control issues from each pitcher, opportunities should be abundant for each offense tonight.
*MLB(0.5u): Athletics ML(+217) @ Giants–8:45 PM CT
I’m taking a flyer on the A’s tonight for the simple reason that this is a TERRIBLE travel spot for the Giants. San Francisco just played 11 straight road games in the Midwest/East Coast region and now travel back home on zero days of rest. Additionally, they had a weird 1 game stop in Milwaukee last night on a day they were supposed to have off and likely arrived home in the wee hours of the morning. This is Major League Baseball; even the worst teams are going to win 55-60 times a season. If you’re going to give me greater than 2:1 odds to fade a team in this bad of a spot, I will hop on board. GO VERY LIGHT HERE.
