A -1.35u Tuesday ended a nice 4 day winning streak for me, but I’m back with 2 MLB plays today looking to get back in the green. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Orioles F5 TT OVER 1.5(-115) @ Yankees–6:05 PM CT
While the new dimensions at Camden Yards certainly haven’t favored the Orioles at home this season, this offense is in good form on their current road trip. Over their last 5 games(1 at OAK, 3 at LAA, 1 at NYY), Baltimore is averaging 5.6 runs/game and have plated at least 4 runs in each game during that stretch, including 8 against these Yankees last night. They’ll face a familiar arm tonight in lefty Jordan Montgomery. While Montgomery held the Orioles down earlier this season, I do think the offense will have the advantage tonight having seen this same arm so recently. Montgomery is a pretty dependable arm, but a career 1.26 WHIP and 1.14 HR/9 also show that he’s not a world beater. One of the only situations I could trust the Orioles in last season was against lefties in good hitting ballparks, and that is exactly what we’re getting in this situation(the wind will be blowing out 14 mph to right center in an already small park). I’m going to ride with the Orioles’ offense at this small number and reasonable price.
*MLB(1u): Tigers ML(+165) @ Twins–6:40 PM CT
I was shocked to see this line so high. I know the Twins have won 5 straight, but that needs to be contextualized a bit. They swept a White Sox team over the weekend that is likely in the worst form they will be in all season, and they probably should’ve lost last night’s game to this Detroit team. Twins SP Joe Ryan has thrown just 42.2 career innings; while he’s been solid so far at the major league level, he did give up 6 ER in 4.2 IP against the Tigers at the end of last season. There is not enough data points on Ryan to throw out this big of a number in his favor, especially considering Michael Pineda is on the mound for Detroit. Pineda is one of the more underrated pitchers in the game in my opinion(career 1.19 WHIP) and just threw 5 shutout innings against the Yankees lineup. Even with the Twins’ recent success in mind, they still have very mediocre numbers in almost every offensive category. I really don’t like either bullpen, but Minnesota’s pen has performed substantially worse up to this point in the season. I have noticed that, while the Tigers offense might not always come out hot, they do not give at bats away late in games. This is why they’ve been able to keep so many games close this season and even put together a few comeback victories. In any case, this is a bad line, and I’m willing to put a full unit down to net 1.65u for us.
