I’m rolling with a pair of MLB plays today looking to bounce back after an 0-2 Wednesday. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Phillies -1.5(+100) vs Rockies–12:05 PM CT
The Phillies have won the first 3 games of this series by an average nearly 6 runs/game, and I see no reason things will change today. Despite a less than ideal start to the season, Phillies SP Zack Wheeler is still one of the best pitchers in the game. His blowup in Miami was a true anomaly, and the Brewers put together a good 5th inning in his last start that spoiled what was otherwise a great outing. At home last year, Wheeler had a brilliant 2.38 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, and 10.8 K/9. He’ll face a Rockies lineup that I believe will continue to flounder away from Coors Field. Rockies SP Austin Gomber is a soft-throwing lefty that has some of the most stark home/road splits in the game. He was very effective at Coors Field last season, but on the road, he held an atrocious 6.22 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and allowed 2 HR/9. The Rockies bullpen has also regressed back to being one of the worst in baseball after a fluky hot start to this campaign. The Philly offense has caught fire in this series, and against lefties this year, they hold the 2nd best OPS in the league. The stars seem to be aligned for another Phillies blowout, and the fact we’re getting this at even money is more than fair in my opinion.
*MLB(1u): Red Sox/Blue Jays OVER 7.5(-105)–2:07 PM CT
Did you ever imagine a world in which a Red Sox/Blue Jays game would have a total this low? While the Red Sox offense has come out of the gates slow this year, they have shown signs over their past 2 games that they are turning a corner(5 runs on Tuesday, 7 runs last night). I don’t have much bad to say about Blue Jays SP Alek Manoah; he’s 3-0 to start this year after enjoying a very solid rookie campaign in 2021. However, I do think the Red Sox will put up tough AB’s against him today. When they get to the Blue Jays bullpen, the flood gates could open. While Toronto’s bullpen ranks 3rd in WHIP this season, I don’t think that’s sustainable whatsoever. Last night, the Red Sox tallied 6 runs in 4 innings against this unit, and I think today could yield a similar result. With that said, I think the Blue Jays offense will have plenty of opportunities themselves. Red Sox SP Garrett Whitlock has been great coming out of the bullpen these past 2 seasons, but this is just his 2nd career start. He has never gone more than 4 innings in a major league game, and who knows if he will carry his past success into this new role. In any case, I have zero trust the Red Sox bullpen, a unit that is going to be counted on heavily in today’s game. Toronto’s offense hasn’t even gotten hot up to this point, yet they still rank 5th in slugging, 7th in batting average, and have hit the most home runs in the league. I see a lot of value on the Over here given the potential of each offense and my lack of trust in each of these pitching staffs.
