I started off the MLB season with a 2-0, +2.18u day! I’m looking to back that up with 3 more winners today, all of which you can see below. If you’d like to receive a text whenever I release any plays, join my Telegram group. Let’s start the weekend off strong!
*MLB(0.66u): Red Sox F5 ML(+150) @ Yankees–12:05 PM CT
This price is a bit silly to me. Gerrit Cole’s last start came in the Wild Card game where this Red Sox team knocked him out of the game in just 2 innings. The Red Sox lineup got even better this offseason adding INF Trevor Story, and 4 Red Sox hitters have an OPS above .925 against Cole. Red Sox SP Nathan Eovaldi had a respectable 3.75 ERA last season, but his FIP of 2.78 suggests he pitched substantially better than his ERA shows. The Yankees obviously have the potential to strike big at any moment, but this is a lineup that is marred with “true 3 outcomes(K, BB, HR)” guys that display tons of inconsistency. I won’t risk a full unit on this play, but I’ll throw ⅔ of a unit on it to hopefully net us that full unit. Maybe it’s the Yankee bias typically shown in the betting market, but this is just a bad price.
*MLB(1u): Athletics F5 TT UNDER 1.5(-115) @ Phillies–2:05 PM CT
Aaron Nola totes the rubber for the Phillies today looking to bounce back from what was a somewhat disappointing 2021. While the 4.63 ERA was uncharacteristic, his 1.13 WHIP and other underlying statistics(3.36 FIP, 3.26 SIERA) scream that he caught the raw end of some bad breaks. Even in a down year, Nola had a 1.00 WHIP at Citizens Bank Park. In all honesty, I’m not sure there’s one guy in this A’s lineup Nola is going to have to work around. The Athletics were pretty mediocre offensively last year, and now that they’ve sold off basically every valuable offensive piece they had, I’m expecting a pretty rough year for them at the plate. When you combine that this is a righty-heavy lineup that won’t be able to take advantage of the Citizens Bank Park conditions, I think Nola has his way today. 1.5 is a low F5 total, but I don’t think Nola has much trouble today.
*MLB(1u): Giants F5 -0.5(+105) vs Marlins–3:35 PM CT
The Giants crushed right-handed pitching at home last season, and they’ll face righty Sandy Alcantara today. The Marlins ace had a very good 2021(3.19 ERA, 1.07 WHIP), but much of that is aided by pitching in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the league. Away from home last season, Alcantara had an ERA above 4.00, a WHIP above 1.20, and allowed over 1 HR/9. The Giants added yet another lefty bat in Joc Pederson to complement what was already a very good lineup to begin with. Giants SP Logan Webb was phenomenal last season(3.03 ERA, 1.11 WHIP), and his FIP at 2.71 suggests the breakout year was anything but a fluke. Aside from Jazz Chisholm, the Marlins are a righty-heavy lineup that only have a couple of guys that will warrant caution from Webb. At Oracle Park last season, Webb had a sub-2.00 ERA, sub-1.00 WHIP, and allowed just 0.5 HR/9. Getting the Giants F5 -0.5 at plus-money is a bargain.
